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MARKET ANALYSIS: Traders May Continue To Shrug Off US-China Trade Dispute

20th Sep 2018 13:59

WASHINGTON (Alliance News) - The major US index futures are pointing to a higher opening on Thursday, with stocks likely to see further upside after ending the previous session mostly higher.

The upward momentum on Wall Street comes as traders continue to shrug off concerns about the escalating trade dispute between the US and China.

JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon sought to downplay the trade dispute in comments to CNBC-TV18, calling it a "trade skirmish" rather than a trade war.

Upbeat economic data may also generate some positive sentiment, with a report from the Labor Department showing initial jobless claims unexpectedly dipped to their lowest level in nearly fifty years in the week ended September 15th.

Stocks turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Wednesday, although the Dow climbed to its best closing level in nearly eight months. The broader Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended the day roughly flat.

The major averages ended the session mixed. While the Nasdaq edged down 6.07 points or 0.1% to 7,950.04, the Dow advanced 158.60 points or 0.6% to 26,405.76 and the S&P 500 inched up 3.64 points or 0.1% to 2,907.95.

The choppy trading on Wall Street came amid lingering concerns about the trade dispute between the US and China.

Traders largely shrugged off the escalating trade war on Tuesday, but uncertainty about the impact on the global economy is likely to continue to weigh on their minds.

With the widely anticipated tariff announcements in the rear-view mirror, traders may also have been looking ahead to next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by another quarter point, although traders are likely to keep a close eye on the accompanying statement for clues about future rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the Dow benefited from strong gains by financial giants Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) as well as heavy equipment manufacturer Caterpillar (CAT).

On the US economic front, a report released by the Commerce Department showed a sharp increase in new residential construction in the US in the month of August, although the report also showed a steep drop in building permits during the month.

The Commerce Department said housing starts spiked by 9.2% to an annual rate of 1.282 million in August from the revised July estimate of 1.174 million.

Economists had expected housing starts to jump by 5.7% to a rate of 1.235 million from the 1.168 million originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the report said building permits tumbled by 5.7% to an annual rate of 1.229 million in August from a revised 1.303 million in July.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, had been expected to edge down by 0.1% to a rate of 1.310 million from the 1.311 million originally reported for the previous month.

Gold stocks showed a substantial move to the upside on the day, driving the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index up by 2.3%. The rally by gold stocks came amid an increase by the price of the precious metal.

Significant strength also emerged among banking stocks, which benefited from a continued increase in treasury yields. Reflecting the strength in the sector, the KBW Bank Index jumped by 2%.

Oil service stocks also saw considerable strength, moving higher along with the price of crude oil. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index surged up by 1.9%.

Natural gas, brokerage, and chemical stocks also moved notably higher on the day, while interest rate-sensitive utilities and commercial real estate stocks came under pressure.

Commodity, Currency Markets

Crude oil futures are slipping USD0.10 to USD71.02 a barrel after spiking USD1.27 to USD71.12 a barrel on Wednesday. Meanwhile, an ounce of gold is trading at USD1,210.70, up USD2.40 compared to the previous session's close of USD1,208.30. On Wednesday, gold rose USD5.40.

On the currency front, the US dollar is trading at 112.10 yen compared to the 112.28 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Wednesday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at USD1.1768 compared to yesterday's USD1.1673.

Asia

Asian stocks ended Thursday's session on a muted note despite higher commodity prices and positive cues from Wall Street overnight.

Crude oil prices extended gains after climbing to a more than two-month high on Wednesday as investors eyed disruptions to global supplies once US sanctions on Iran come into force.

Chinese stocks ended roughly flat on trade concerns after Alibaba's founder and chairman Jack Ma said the e-commerce giant no longer plans to create one million jobs in the US amid the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index edged down 1.60 points or 0.1% to 2,729.25, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 70.30 points or 0.3% to 27,477.67.

Japanese shares also ended little changed after seeing sharp gains earlier this week. The Nikkei 225 Index finished marginally higher at 23,674.93 as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won comfortable re-election as leader of his ruling party. The broader Topix Index inched up 0.1% to 1,787.60.

Nishimatsuya Chain tumbled 4% after the company cut its profit forecast for the six months through August.

Banks performed well after a surge in US Treasury yields. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group advanced 1.6%, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group gained 1.4% and Mizuho Financial rose 1.3%.

Australian markets fell modestly, dragged down by banks and energy stocks. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index dipped 20.50 points or 0.3% to 6,169.50, while the broader All Ordinaries Index ended down 0.32% at 6,276.90.

The big four banks fell between 0.3% and 0.8%. Energy stocks also ended broadly lower despite crude oil prices rising to a more than two-month high overnight. Beach Energy tumbled 2.8%, Origin Energy lost 1.7% and Oil Search declined 0.9%.

Shares of Washington H. Soul Pattinson slumped 6.3% after the investment company reported a 20% decline in profits.

Meanwhile, mining heavyweight Rio Tinto jumped 3.6% and rival BHP Billiton rose 1.1% after copper prices surged to hit a three-week high.

Europe

European stocks have moved mostly higher on Thursday to extend gains for a third straight session as investors brush aside concerns about trade wars and look ahead to next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

Earlier in the day, the Swiss National Bank maintained its interest rate on sight deposits at -0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor between -1.25% and -0.25%, as widely expected. The Swiss franc fell slightly against its major counterparts following the decision.

Meanwhile, Norway's central bank raised its key interest rate and hinted that the rate would be hiked further in the first quarter of next year.

While the UK's FTSE 100 Index has edged up by 0.2%, the German DAX Index is up by 0.6% and the French CAC 40 Index is up by 0.8%.

The British pound has advanced against its rivals after a government report showed UK retail sales unexpectedly increased in August.

Retail sales volume, including auto fuel, gained 0.3% month-on-month in August in contrast to the expected fall of 0.2% but slower than the 0.9% increase seen in July. This was the second consecutive rise in sales volume.

Swiss nutrition, health and wellness giant Nestle has risen after saying it is examining strategic options for its skin health unit.

Satellite company Inmarsat has also moved to the upside after announcing a strategic collaboration with Panasonic.

Oil rig construction and maintenance firm Lamprell has jumped after unveiling its first-half results. German auto giant Volkswagen has also rallied on a Bloomberg report that it will end almost all of its business in Iran.

Meanwhile, British travel and insurance firm Saga PLC has dropped after it announced the appointment of James Quin as Group Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director with effect from January 1, 2019.

Fashion retailer Tom Tailor has shown a substantial move to the downside after issuing a profit warning.

US Economic Reports

A report released by the Labor Department unexpectedly showed first-time claims for US unemployment benefits dipped to their lowest level in nearly fifty years in the week ended September 15th.

The Labor Department said jobless claims edged down to 201,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 204,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 210,000.

With the unexpected decrease, jobless claims fell to their lowest level since hitting 197,000 in November of 1969.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia also released a report showing a significant acceleration in the pace of growth in regional manufacturing activity in the month of September.

The Philly Fed said its index for current general activity jumped to 22.9 in September after tumbling to 11.9 in August, with a positive reading indication growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to climb to 17.0.

At 10 am ET, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release its report on existing home sales in the month of August. Existing home sales are expected to rise by 0.3% in August after falling by 0.7% in July.

The Conference Board is also due to release its report on leading economic indicators in the month of August at 10 am ET. The leading economic index is expected to climb by 0.5%.

At 11 am ET, the Treasury Department is scheduled to announce the details of next week's auctions of two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes.

Stocks In Focus

Shares of Darden Restaurants (DRI) are moving sharply higher in pre-market trading after the parent of Olive Garden, Longhorn Steakhouse, and other restaurant chains reported better than expected fiscal first quarter results and raised its full-year guidance.

Sportswear maker Under Armour (UAA) may also see early strength after raising its full-year profit forecast and announced plans to cut approximately 3% of its global workforce.

Shares of Herman Miller (MLHR) are also likely to move to the upside after the office furniture company reported fiscal first quarter results that exceeded analyst estimates on both the top and bottom lines.

On the other hand, shares of Red Hat (RHT) may come under pressure after the Linux operating system distributor reported better than expected fiscal second quarter earnings but on revenues that missed estimates. Red Hat also provided disappointing guidance for the current quarter.

Recreational vehicle maker Thor Industries (THO) is also likely to see initial weakness after reporting fiscal fourth quarter earnings that came in below expectations.

Shares of General Electric (GE) may also move to the downside after J.P. Morgan lowered its price target on the industrial conglomerate's stock to USD10 per share from USD11 per share.

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