13th Oct 2026 07:56
(Alliance News) - BP expects to report a boost from stronger refining margins, while Whitbread reports a half-year profit fall but says Premier Inn is outperforming in the UK & Ireland unit.
Here is what you need to know before the London market open:
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MARKETS
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FTSE 100: called up 0.5% at 10,709.58
GBP: higher at USD1.3223 (USD1.3211 at previous London equities close)
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ECONOMICS
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UK households are set to face a sharper rise in inflation than previously forecast as the conflict in the Middle East propels food and energy costs higher, according to the International Monetary Fund. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham also will have to confront slower economic growth next year, according to fresh forecasts. A prolonged stalemate or further escalation in the Middle East could "keep energy and food prices elevated and volatile", weigh on economic growth and worsen the fiscal position of governments, the IMF said. It also indicated that this could be further amplified by extreme weather, cyber attacks and attacks on energy infrastructure. The latest world economic outlook showed that UK consumers are set to witness faster-than-expected inflation for this year and 2027. Consumer prices are set to have increased by 3.3% in 2026, up from a previous prediction of 3.2%. This would mark the joint second-highest rate among the G7 group of countries. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to slow to 2.8% for next year, but this is significantly higher than the 2.4% rate previously forecast by the IMF.
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The report, which was released alongside annual meetings from the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok, pointed to stronger-than-expected UK growth for this year but slower growth next year. UK gross domestic product is set to grow 1.3% this year, having previously predicted a 1% rise. However, growth for next year is set to slow to 1.2%, down from a previous forecast of 1.3%. An upwards boost from the adoption of AI technology has helped to boost many economies globally this year. However, the IMF indicated that accelerating prices and further disruption linked to the Middle East conflict are likely to weigh on growth. The latest report also indicated that the shock to the labour market has been shallower than expected, with UK unemployment set to strike 5.3% this year, down from a prediction of 5.6%.
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BROKER RATINGS
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Barclays raises NatWest to 'overweight' ('equal-weight') - price target 850 (740) pence
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COMPANIES - FTSE 100
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BP says it expects to report a boost from stronger refining margins in the third quarter, though it notes it will book impairments of up to USD4.5 billion. The oil major, in a pre-results trading statement, expects to report third quarter upstream output of 2.190 million to 2.240 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to 2.201 million in the second quarter. It puts the outcome down to "seasonal maintenance recovery partly offset by BP's reduced equity interest in Latin America". "[The] third quarter includes the impact of continued disruption in the Middle East and no impact from weather events in the Gulf of America," it adds. Upstream production in the third quarter of 2025 amounted to 2.362 million boe per day. In the Products arm, it expects an underlying replacement cost profit boost from "stronger realised refining margins" to the tune of USD1.9 billion to USD2.1 billion, relative to the second quarter. In Customers, however, it predicts a "significantly lower result, driven by weaker fuels margins and higher base oil prices in Castrol, as well as a lower contribution from midstream, partly offset by slightly higher volumes due to seasonal effects". BP says its third quarter results are to include adjusting items relating to impairments in the range of USD3.0 billion to USD4.5 billion. "These charges are primarily attributable to transition businesses in the gas & low carbon energy segment and are excluded from underlying replacement cost profit," it says. BP also says it expects to report net debt as of the third quarter end between USD13.5 billion and USD14.5 billion, shrinking from USD22.3 billion in June. BP releases half-year results on October 30 and further ahead, it will host a strategy and outlook update on December 15 in New York City.
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Hotel company Whitbread reports a decline in half-year profit but it says "strong trading momentum has continued", while pressure from an activist investor continues to be a subplot hanging over the Premier Inn owner. Whitbread, which has called a general meeting for November 9, called on shareholders to vote against a proposal by Corvex Management LP to install a new director to the company's board. Corvex owns around a 7% stake in Dunstable, England-based Whitbread. "With excellent strategic progress and strong current trading momentum, our plan is working. Against this positive backdrop, the Board strongly recommends that all shareholders vote against the resolution proposed by Corvex at the forthcoming shareholder meeting," Chief Executive Dominic Paul says. Whitbread says pretax profit in the six months to August 27 fell 62% to GBP109 million from GBP287 million, though revenue climbed 2.0% to GBP1.57 billion from GBP1.54 billion. Operating costs were 16% higher at GBP1.37 billion. CEO Paul says: "In the UK and Ireland, we are extending our market outperformance with accommodation sales up 3% versus last year and positive [revenue per available room] growth for the fifth consecutive quarter. Our commercial programme and technology-led enhancements are contributing to positive like-for-like sales momentum that, together with the delivery of material cost efficiencies, is helping to mitigate the impact of cost inflation." RevPAR in the Premier Inn UK & Ireland segment rose 2% in the half year, Whitbread says. In Germany, it rose 1%. Trading in the first five weeks of the second half "has remained strong" in the UK & Ireland division, continuing to outperform the wider midscale and economy hotel market. Whitbread says: "We are making excellent strategic progress and the strong trading momentum in both the UK and Germany is encouraging. Whilst visibility of market demand remains limited, our forward booked position is positive and our progress to date means we are on track and remain confident in the full year outlook." Whitbread maintains its interim dividend at 36.4 pence per share.
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COMPANIES - FTSE 250
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Michael Page has backed its annual guidance and the recruitment firm reports a "continued improvement and normalisation in a number of our markets". Gross profit in the third quarter of 2026 rose 1.4% to GBP190.5 million from GBP187.8 million a year prior. At constant currency, it rose 1.5%. It is its first quarter of growth since the final three months of 2022. "We saw growth continue in Asia Pacific, the Americas and Southern Europe, with trading continuing to be more challenging, albeit stable, across France, Northern Europe and the UK," CEO Nicholas Kirk says. "Our US business delivered its eighth consecutive quarter of growth driven by strong demand within construction and manufacturing. In Asia Pacific, we saw continued momentum across Asia and standout performances from Japan, Greater China and India. In Southern Europe, Spain continued to perform well and delivered its fifth consecutive quarter of growth. In the markets where we have experienced improved trading, this has been driven by a normalisation of conversion of offers to placements." In France, Northern Europe and the UK, markets were "stable" and Michael Page traded in line with expectations. "In these markets, permanent recruitment continues to be more challenging than temporary as clients seek greater flexibility," the CEO adds. Michael Page expects operating profit for the year in line with company compiled consensus of around GBP29 million.
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OTHER COMPANIES
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Jardine Matheson says it now has full ownership of Gammon Construction and the diversified investment company has lifted its guidance for 2026. It now expects underlying earnings per share to be between USD5.50 and USD5.65 in 2026, up from previous guidance of USD5.33. "This represents growth of between 3% and 6% over 2025 EPS, adjusted for disposals and reclassifications in 2025, and primarily reflects continued solid performance across the portfolio in the first three quarters of 2026," the company says. Jardine Matheson also announces that it has singed an completed an agreement to acquire a 50% stake in Gammon Construction from FTSE 100-listed infrastructure group Balfour Beatty. The total consideration payable to Balfour Beatty will be GBP250 million, paid in three equal tranches. Balfour CEO Philip Hoare says: "Balfour Beatty's investment in Gammon has been highly successful, providing a steady dividend for many years. However, in line with our profitable growth strategy, the group is focused on the opportunities across our chosen US and UK geographies where we continue to see significant potential. In this context, the board considered potential strategic options for our shareholding in Gammon, determining that Jardine Matheson is the right buyer to consolidate ownership and fully apply their local market presence and expertise to Gammon going forwards."
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Impax Asset Management Group has reported a decline in assets under management, still gripped by net outflows, though it is seeing "environmental themes" performing strongly in the equity markets. The investment manager focused on sustainable ventures says assets under management at its September 30 fourth quarter end fell 14% to GBP20.05 billion, from GBP23.29 billion in June. It reports a net outflow of GBP2.39 billion, as well as a GBP850 million hit from performance, market movements and foreign exchange. Year-on-year, assets under management have shrunk by 23% from GBP26.06 billion, amid GBP7.78 billion worth of net outflows. "The net outflows for the quarter were concentrated in actively managed listed equities (75% of AUM) and principally reflect the 'lag effect' of clients responding to the previous weaker investment performance of some strategies," CEO Ian Simm says. "Between 2023 and 2025 these strategies were challenged by an equities market dominated by a narrow part of the technology sector and our thematic strategies' investment opportunities were out of favour. However, since the start of 2026 there has been a significant change in equities markets, with environmental themes in particular performing more strongly, as investors reconsider areas such as energy security, resource efficiency and electrification, particularly in the context of the build out of AI."
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By Eric Cunha, Alliance News news editor
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