17th Dec 2012 07:00
17 December 2012
Aggreko plc
PRE-CLOSE TRADING UPDATE
2012 Performance in line with expectations
Earnings per share to grow by at least 15%
Overview
Aggreko plc, the world leader in the provision of temporary power and temperature control solutions, is today issuing the following trading update for the year ending 31st December 2012.
Trading
Reported Group revenues for the year are expected to be in the region of £1.6 billion (up 13%), and profit before tax and amortisation is expected to be around £365 million (up 12%), which is in line with previous guidance; earnings per share are expected to grow by at least 15%. On an underlying basis(1) we expect that Group revenues for 2012 will be around 13% higher than the prior year and trading profits around 7% higher.
Underlying revenues in our International Power Projects business, which exclude pass-through fuel and foreign exchange movements, are expected to grow by about 12% in the fourth quarter, with growth for the year as a whole expected to be around 15%. Underlying trading margins in International Power Projects for the year are expected to be about 34%, which is lower than last year principally due to increased bad debt provisions and mobilisation costs on our Mozambique contract. Although all the customers against whose accounts we have taken bad debt provisions have made substantial payments during the second half we continue to expect bad debt provisions to be around $85 million by the year end. Order intake in the fourth quarter has been stronger than in the third quarter, with around 220 MW of new contracts signed to date; major orders include 100 MW in Cote d'Ivoire and 74 MW in Japan. We anticipate that order intake for the year will be over 1,000 MW and we expect to close out the year with around 10% more capacity on-hire than at the end of 2011.
Reported results for the year in the Local business are likely to show revenues around 24% higher and margins up 2 percentage points to 19%. We expect underlying revenues, which excludes the benefit of the London 2012 Olympics contract and the Poit acquisition as well as adjusting for foreign exchange movements, to be around 8% higher in the fourth quarter than in 2011, with growth for the year as a whole expected to be around 12%. Europe and Middle East underlying revenues for the year are expected to be up around 5%, North America up by around 15%, and Aggreko International's Local business up by around 19%. Underlying trading margins for the year as a whole are expected to be slightly higher than the prior year.
Financial position
We expect to end the year with net debt of around £620 million, an increase of around £250 million over the prior year, with the main drivers being the acquisition of Poit Energia in April of this year, and higher levels of both capital expenditure and working capital. Fleet capital expenditure in 2012 is expected to be around £420 million, of which about £30 million was related to the London Olympics.
Outlook
The work we have done on our Strategy Review confirms that we are the leader in attractive markets which will deliver long-term growth, and we look forward to sharing this analysis with investors in March. However, after a year of strong growth in 2012, the economic environment we will be facing in 2013 is particularly uncertain in many of our markets and it is difficult at this stage to provide a definitive view of the likely pattern of trading in 2013.
Also, and as expected, Aggreko will not have the benefit in 2013 of the Olympics to bolster the Local business and the planned reduction in numbers of US troops in Afghanistan will lead to a further reduction in Military revenues. We are also waiting to learn whether our Japanese clients intend to extend their contracts into the second half of 2013. Our current assumption is that revenues from these three items combined will be around £100 million lower in 2013 than in 2012.
In the Local business, we expect to see continued underlying growth in 2013, and at this stage we believe that it will deliver another positive year. In the market for International Power Projects, the weakening trend in economic growth in many emerging markets, which we identified in our October statement, has continued; our previous experience suggests that in these circumstances customers may in the short term be under less pressure to secure additional power generation.
Notwithstanding the difficult economic environment, and excluding the impact of the three items mentioned above, we expect both the International Power Projects and Local businesses to grow in 2013. However, this growth will be unlikely to be able to mitigate entirely the reduction of £100 million of revenue and associated margin, and on a reported basis we currently believe that Group performance in 2013 is likely to be slightly lower than in 2012.
We are taking a number of steps to respond both to these one-off items and to a temporary weakening in demand in some of our markets. As we stated in October, we are planning to reduce the rate of our fleet investment, and we expect to spend around £150 million on fleet capital investment in the first half of 2013. We will decide on the rate of investment in the second half during the second quarter.
ENDS
Enquiries to:
Rupert Soames / Angus Cockburn
Aggreko plc
Tel. 0141 225 5900
Neil Bennett / Tom Eckersley
Maitland
Tel: 020 7379 5151
(1) Underlying revenue excludes revenue from major events (Asian Games in 2011 and London Olympics in 2012), Poit Energia acquisition, pass-through fuel and currency movements.
Related Shares:
AGK.L