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Prudential plc - FY14 Results - EEV

10th Mar 2015 07:03

RNS Number : 9706G
Prudential PLC
10 March 2015
 



 

European Embedded Value (EEV) basis results

 

Post-tax operating profit based on longer-term investment returns

Results analysis by business area

 

 

 

2014 £m

2013* £m

 

 

Note

note (iii)

Asia operations

 

 

 

 

New business

3

1,162

1,139

Business in force

4

739

753

Long-term business

 

1,901

1,892

Eastspring Investments

 

78

64

Development expenses

 

(1)

(1)

Total

 

1,978

1,955

US operations

 

 

 

 

New business

3

694

706

Business in force

4

834

820

Long-term business

 

1,528

1,526

Broker-dealer and asset management

 

6

39

Total

 

1,534

1,565

UK operations

 

 

 

 

New business

3

270

237

Business in force

4

476

595

Long-term business

 

746

832

General insurance commission

 

19

22

Total UK insurance operations

 

765

854

M&G (including Prudential Capital)

 

386

346

Total

 

1,151

1,200

Other income and expenditurenote (i)

 

(531)

(482)

Solvency II and restructuring costsnote (ii)

 

(36)

(34)

Post-tax operating profit based on longer-term investment returns

 

4,096

4,204

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analysed as profits (losses) from:

 

 

 

 

New business

3

2,126

2,082

Business in force

4

2,049

2,168

Long-term business

 

4,175

4,250

Asset management

 

470

449

Other results

 

(549)

(495)

Total

 

4,096

4,204

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis. This approach has been adopted throughout this supplementary information.

 

Notes:

(i) EEV basis other income and expenditure represents the post-tax IFRS basis result, less the unwind of expected margins on the internal management of the assets of the covered business (as explained in note 16(a)(vii)).

(ii) Solvency II and restructuring costs comprise the net of tax charge recognised on an IFRS basis and the additional amount recognised on the EEV basis for the shareholders' share incurred by the PAC with-profits fund.

(iii) The comparative results have been prepared using previously reported average exchange rates for the year. For memorandum disclosure purposes note 2 presents the 2013 results on both actual exchange rates (AER) and constant exchange rates (CER) bases.

 

Post-tax summarised consolidated income statement

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note

2014 £m

2013* £m

Post-tax operating profit based on longer-term investment returns

 

 

 

 

Asia operations

 

1,978

1,955

US operations

 

1,534

1,565

UK operations

 

1,151

1,200

Other income and expenditure

 

(531)

(482)

Solvency II and restructuring costs

 

(36)

(34)

Post-tax operating profit based on longer-term investment returns

 

4,096

4,204

Short-term fluctuations in investment returns

5

763

(564)

Effect of changes in economic assumptions

6

(369)

629

Mark to market value movements on core borrowings

 

(187)

152

Gain on sale of PruHealth and PruProtect

7

44

Loss attaching to held for sale Japan Life business

8

(35)

Costs of domestication of Hong Kong branch

9

(4)

(28)

Total post-tax non-operating profit

 

247

154

Profit for the year attributable to equity holders of the Company

 

4,343

4,358

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

Movement in shareholders' equity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note

2014 £m

2013* £m

Profit for the year attributable to equity shareholders

4,343

4,358

Items taken directly to equity:

 

 

Exchange movements on foreign operations and net investment hedges

737

(1,077)

 

Dividends

(895)

(781)

 

New share capital subscribed

13

6

 

Shareholders' share of actuarial and other gains and losses on defined

benefit pension schemes

(11)

(53)

 

Reserve movements in respect of share-based payments

106

98

 

Treasury shares:

 

 

 

Movement in own shares in respect of share-based payment plans

(48)

(10)

 

 

Movement in own shares purchased by unit trusts consolidated under IFRS

(6)

(31)

 

Mark to market value movements on Jackson assets backing surplus and

required capital

77

(97)

Net increase in shareholders' equity

12

4,316

2,413

Shareholders' equity at beginning of year:

 

 

As previously reported

12

24,856

22,443

 

Effect of the domestication of Hong Kong branch on 1 January 2014

9

(11)

-

 

 

 

 

 

24,845

22,443

Shareholders' equity at end of year

12

29,161

24,856

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comprising: 

 

31 Dec 2014 £m

31 Dec 2013 £m

 

Long-term

business operations

 

Asset

management

and other operations

Total

Long-term

business

operations

Asset

management

and other operations

Total

 

note 12

note 12

Asia operations

 

12,545

274

12,819

10,536

255

10,791

US operations

 

8,379

157

8,536

6,966

134

7,100

UK insurance operations

 

8,433

19

8,452

7,342

22

7,364

M&G

 

-

1,646

1,646

-

1,602

1,602

Other operations

 

-

(2,292)

(2,292)

-

(2,001)

(2,001)

Shareholders' equity at end of year

 

29,357

(196)

29,161

24,844

12

24,856

Representing:

 

 

 

 

 

Net assets excluding acquired goodwill

and holding company net borrowings

 

29,124

1,542

30,666

24,613

1,155

25,768

Acquired goodwill

 

233

1,230

1,463

231

1,230

1,461

Holding company net borrowings at market value note10

 

-

(2,968)

(2,968)

-

(2,373)

(2,373)

 

29,357

(196)

29,161

24,844

12

24,856

 

 

Summary statement of financial position

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note

31 Dec 2014 £m

31 Dec 2013 £m

Total assets less liabilities, before deduction for insurance funds

 

326,633

288,826

Less insurance funds:*

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholder liabilities (net of reinsurers' share) and unallocated surplus of with-profits funds

 

(314,822)

(279,176)

 

Less shareholders' accrued interest in the long-term business

 

17,350

15,206

 

 

 

 

(297,472)

(263,970)

 Total net assets

 12

 29,161

 24,856

 

Share capital

 

128

128

Share premium

 

1,908

1,895

IFRS basis shareholders' reserves

 

9,775

7,627

Total IFRS basis shareholders' equity

 12

11,811

9,650

Additional EEV basis retained profit

 12

17,350

15,206

Total EEV basis shareholders' equity (excluding non-controlling interests)

 12

29,161

24,856

* Including liabilities in respect of insurance products classified as investment contracts under IFRS 4.

 

Net asset value per share

31 Dec 2014

31 Dec 2013

Based on EEV basis shareholders' equity of £29,161 million (2013: £24,856 million) (in pence)

1,136p

971p

Number of issued shares at year end (millions)

2,568

2,560

Annualised return on embedded value*

16%

19%

* Annualised return on embedded value is based on EEV post-tax operating profit, as a percentage of opening EEV basis shareholders' equity.

 

 

Notes on the EEV basis results

 

1Basis of preparation

 

The EEV basis results have been prepared in accordance with the EEV Principles issued by the European Insurance CFO Forum in May 2004 and subsequently supplemented by Additional Guidance on EEV Disclosure issued in October 2005. Where appropriate, the EEV basis results include the effects of adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The EEV results are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis.

 

The directors are responsible for the preparation of the supplementary information in accordance with the EEV Principles. The auditors have reported on the 2014 EEV basis results supplement to the Company's statutory accounts for 2014. Their report was (i) unqualified, (ii) did not include a reference to any matters to which the auditors drew attention by way of emphasis without qualifying their report and (iii) did not contain a statement under section 498(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 2006. Except for the change in presentation of EEV results from pre-tax to post-tax, as described in the additional unaudited financial information for the 2013 annual report, the 2013 results have been derived from the EEV basis results supplement to the Company's statutory accounts for 2013. The supplement included an unqualified audit report from the auditors.

 

A detailed description of the EEV methodology and accounting presentation is provided in note 16.

 

 

2 Results analysis by business area

 

The 2013 comparative results are shown below on both actual exchange rates (AER) and constant exchange rates (CER) bases. The 2013 CER comparative results are translated at 2014 average exchange rates.

 

Annual premium and contribution equivalents (APE) (note16(a)(ii))

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

2013 £m

% change

Note

AER

CER

AER

CER

Asia operations

 2,237

 2,125

 1,946

5%

15%

US operations

 1,556

 1,573

 1,494

(1%)

4%

UK operations

 857

 725

 725

18%

18%

Total

3

 4,650

 4,423

 4,165

5%

12%

 

Post-tax operating profit

2014 £m

2013 £m

% change

Note

AER

CER

AER

CER

Asia operations

New business

3

1,162

1,139

1,032

2%

13%

Business in force

4

739

753

673

(2)%

10%

Long-term business

 1,901

 1,892

 1,705

0%

11%

Eastspring investments

78

 64

 59

22%

32%

Development costs

(1)

(1)

(1)

0%

0%

Total

 1,978

 1,955

 1,763

1%

12%

US operations

New business

3

694

706

670

(2)%

4%

Business in force

4

834

820

779

2%

7%

Long-term business

 1,528

 1,526

 1,449

0%

5%

Broker-dealer and asset management

6

 39

 37

(85)%

(84)%

Total

 1,534

 1,565

 1,486

(2)%

3%

UK operations

New business

3

270

237

237

14%

14%

Business in force

4

476

595

595

(20)%

(20)%

Long-term business

746

832

832

(10)%

(10)%

General insurance commission

19

 22

 22

(14)%

(14)%

Total UK insurance operations

765

854

854

(10)%

(10)%

M&G (including Prudential Capital)

386

 346

 346

12%

12%

Total

 1,151

 1,200

 1,200

(4)%

(4)%

Other income and expenditure

(531)

(482)

(482)

(10)%

(10)%

Solvency II and restructuring costs

(36)

(34)

(34)

(6)%

(6)%

Post-tax operating profit based on

longer-term investment returns

 4,096

 4,204

 3,933

(3)%

4%

Analysed as profits from:

New business

3

 2,126

2,082

1,939

2%

10%

Business in force

4

 2,049

 2,168

 2,047

(5)%

0%

Total long-term business

4,175

4,250

3,986

(2)%

5%

Asset management

470

449

442

5%

6%

Other results

(549)

(495)

(495)

(11)%

(11)%

Post-tax operating profit based on

longer-term investment returns

4,096

 4,204

 3,933

(3)%

4%

 

Post-tax profit

2014 £m

2013 £m

% change

Note

AER

CER

AER

CER

Post-tax operating profit based on

longer-term investment returns

 4,096

 4,204

 3,933

(3)%

4%

Short-term fluctuations in investment returns

 5

763

(564)

(529)

235%

244%

Effect of changes in economic assumptions

 6

(369)

 629

 623

(159)%

(159)%

Other non-operating profit

(147)

 89

 94

(265)%

(256)%

Total post-tax non-operating profit

247

154

188

60%

31%

Profit for the year attributable to

shareholders

 4,343

 4,358

 4,121

0%

5%

 

Basic earnings per share (in pence)

2014

2013

% change

AER

CER

AER

CER

Based on post-tax operating profit

including longer-term investment returns

160.7

p

165.0

p

154.4

p

(3%)

4%

Based on post-tax profit

170.4

p

171.0

p

161.7

p

0%

5%

Average number of shares (millions)

2,549

2,548

2,548

 

 

3 Analysis of new business contribution

 

(i) Group Summary

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014

Annual premium and contribution equivalents (APE)

Present

value of new business premiums (PVNBP)

New business contribution

New business

 margin

 

APE

PVNBP

note 18

note 18

(note)

£m

£m

£m

%

%

Asia operations(note ii)

 2,237

 12,331

 1,162

 52

 9.4

US operations

 1,556

 15,555

 694

 45

 4.5

UK insurance operations

 857

 7,471

 270

 32

 3.6

Total

 4,650

 35,357

 2,126

 46

 6.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

Annual premium and contribution equivalents (APE)

Present

value of new business premiums (PVNBP)

New business contribution*

New business

 margin*

 

APE

PVNBP

note 18

note 18

(note)

£m

£m

£m

%

%

Asia operations(note ii)

 2,125

 11,375

 1,139

 54

 10.0

US operations

 1,573

 15,723

 706

 45

 4.5

UK insurance operations

 725

 5,978

 237

 33

 4.0

Total

 4,423

 33,076

 2,082

 47

 6.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note:

The increase in new business contribution of £44 million from £2,082 million for 2013 to £2,126 million in 2014 comprises an increase on a CER basis of £187 million, offset by foreign exchange effects of £(143) million. The increase of £187 million on the CER basis comprises a contribution of £277 million reflecting higher sales volumes and the impact of pricing and product actions, offset by a £(90) million adverse effect of reductions in long-term interest rates in the year (analysed as Asia negative £(17) million, US negative £(63) million and UK negative £(10) million).

 

(ii) Asia operations

2014 £m

2013* £m

 

 

AER

CER

China

 27

28

26

Hong Kong

 405

283

269

India

 12

15

14

Indonesia

 296

359

301

Korea

 11

25

25

Taiwan

 29

31

29

 Other

 382

398

368

Total Asia operations

 1,162

1,139

1,032

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

4 Operating profit from business in force

 

(i) Group Summary

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

Asia

operations

US

operations

UK

insurance

operations

Total

note (ii)

note (iii)

note (iv)

(note)

Unwind of discount and other expected returns

648

382

410

1,440

Effect of changes in operating assumptions

52

86

138

Experience variances and other items

39

366

66

471

Total

739

834

476

2,049

 

 

 

 

 

2013* £m

 

Asia

operations

US

operations

UK

insurance

operations

Total

 

 

note (ii)

note (iii)

note (iv)

(note)

Unwind of discount and other expected returns

668

395

437

1,500

Effect of changes in operating assumptions

5

76

98

179

Experience variances and other items

80

349

60

489

Total

753

820

595

2,168

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

Note:

The movements in operating profit from business in force of £(119) million from £2,168 million in 2013 to £2,049 million for 2014 comprises:

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

Reduction in unwind of discount and other expected returns:

 

 

 

Foreign exchange effects

(80)

Effect of changes in interest rates

(187)

Effect of growth in opening value and other items

207

(60)

Non-recurrent benefit in 2013 of reduction in UK corporate tax rates

(98)

Year on year change in effects of other operating assumptions, experience variances and other items

39

Net decrease in operating profit from business in force

(119)

 

(ii) Asia operations

 

2014 £m

2013* £m

Unwind of discount and other expected returnsnote (a)

648

668

Effect of changes in operating assumptions:

 

 

 

Mortality and morbiditynote (b)

27

19

Persistency and withdrawalsnote (c)

(17)

(23)

Expense

(5)

(6)

Othernote (d)

47

15

52

5

Experience variances and other items:

 

 

 

Mortality and morbiditynote (e) 

23

33

Persistency and withdrawalsnote (f) 

44

36

Expensenote (g) 

(27)

(17)

Other

(1)

28

39

80

Total Asia operations

739

753

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

Notes: 

(a) The decrease in unwind of discount and other expected returns of £(20) million from £668 million for 2013 to £648 million for 2014 is impacted by the effect of lower interest rates of £(55) million, and a £(61) million adverse foreign currency translation effect, partially offset by £96 million mainly for the increase in the opening in-force value.

(b) In 2014 the credit of £27 million for mortality and morbidity assumption changes reflects a number of offsetting items, including the effect of reduced projected mortality rates for Hong Kong. In 2013 the credit of £19 million mainly reflected the beneficial effect arising from the renegotiation of a reinsurance agreement in Indonesia.

(c) In 2014 the charge of £(17) million for persistency assumptions mainly reflects increased partial withdrawal assumptions on unit-linked business in Korea. For 2013 the charge of £(23) million reflected a number of offsetting items including the effect of strengthening lapse and premium holiday assumptions in Korea.

(d) In 2014 the credit of £47 million for other assumption changes reflects a number of offsetting items, including the effects of modelling improvements and those arising from asset allocation changes in Hong Kong.

(e) The favourable effect of mortality and morbidity experience in 2014 of £23 million (2013: £33 million) reflects better than expected experience in Indonesia and Hong Kong, offset by higher claims in Malaysia on medical reimbursement products.

(f) The positive persistency and withdrawals experience variance in 2014 of £44 million (2013: £36 million) reflects favourable experience principally in Hong Kong across all product groups.

(g) The expense experience variance at 2014 is negative £(27) million (2013: negative £(17) million). The variance arises in operations which are currently sub-scale (China, Malaysia Takaful and Taiwan), and from short-term overruns in India and Korea.

 

(iii) US operations

 

2014 £m

2013* £m

Unwind of discount and other expected returnsnote (a)

382

395

Effect of changes in operating assumptions:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Persistencynote (b)

55

47

Othernote (c)

31

29

86

76

Experience variances and other items:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spread experience variancenote (d)

192

217

Amortisation of interest-related realised gains and lossesnote (e)

56

58

Othernote (f)

118

74

366

349

Total US operations

834

820

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

Notes: 

(a) The decrease in unwind of discount and other expected returns of £(13) million from £395 million for 2013 to £382 million for 2014 reflects a £(73) million adverse effect of the 90 basis points reduction in the US 10-year Treasury rate and a £(19) million adverse foreign currency effect, partially offset by a £79 million effect mainly for the underlying growth in the in-force book.

(b) The credit in 2014 of £55 million (2013: £47 million) for persistency assumption changes principally relates to revised assumptions for variable annuity business to more closely reflect recent experience.

(c) The effect of other changes in operating assumptions of £31 million reflects a number of offsetting items and includes the capitalised effect of changes in projected policyholder variable annuity fees of £46 million (2013: £33 million) which vary depending on the size and mix of variable annuity funds.

(d) The spread assumption for Jackson is determined on a longer-term basis, net of provision for defaults (see note 17 (ii)). The spread experience variance in 2014 of £192 million (2013: £217 million) includes the positive effect of transactions undertaken to more closely match the overall asset and liability duration.

(e) The amortisation of interest-related gains and losses reflects the fact that when bonds that are neither impaired nor deteriorating are sold and reinvested there will be a consequent change in the investment yield. The realised gain or loss is amortised into the result over the year when the bonds would have otherwise matured to better reflect the long-term returns included in operating profits.

(f) The effect of £118 million in 2014 for other experience variances and other items includes the effect of favourable persistency, mortality and tax experience variances, the most significant item arising from the continued positive persistency experience for annuity business of £59 million (2013: £40 million).

 

(iv) UK insurance operations

 

2014 £m

2013* £m

Unwind of discount and other expected returnsnote (a)

410

437

Effect of change in UK corporate tax ratenote (b)

98

Other itemsnote (c)

66

60

Total UK insurance operations

476

595

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

Notes:

(a) The decrease in unwind of discount and other expected returns of £(27) million from £437 million for 2013 to £410 million for 2014 reflects a £(59) million adverse impact of the 130 basis point reduction in gilt yields partially offset by £32 million mainly for the underlying growth in the in-force book.

(b) For 2013, the positive contribution from the change in UK corporate tax rates of £98 million reflected the combined effect of the reductions in corporate rates from 23 per cent to 21 per cent from April 2014 and 21 per cent to 20 per cent from April 2015.

(c) Other items of £66 million for 2014 (2013: £60 million) principally reflect the positive effects of rebalancing the investment portfolio backing annuity business (see note 16(b)(ii)).

 

 

5 Short-term fluctuations in investment returns

 

Short-term fluctuations in investment returns included in profit for the year arise as follows:

 

(i) Group Summary

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

2013* £m

Insurance operations:

 

 

 

 

 

Asianote (ii)

439

(308)

USnote (iii)

(166)

(280)

UKnote (iv)

583

28

856

(560)

Other operationsnote (v)

(93)

(4)

Total

763

(564)

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

 

(ii) Asia operations

 

The short-term fluctuations in investment returns for Asia operations comprise amounts in respect of:

2014 £m

2013* £m

Hong Kong

178

(178)

Indonesia

35

(44)

Singapore

92

(80)

Other

134

(6)

Total Asia operations

439

(308)

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

These fluctuations mainly arise from decreases (2014) and increases (2013) in long-term interest rates as they affect the value of bonds in the portfolios backing liabilities and related capital. The £134 million credit for other operations in 2014 principally arises in Taiwan of £23 million and in Thailand of £49 million for unrealised gains on bonds.

 

(iii) US operations

 

The short-term fluctuations in investment returns for US operations comprise:

2014 £m

2013* £m

Investment return related experience on fixed income securitiesnote (a)

31

13

Investment return related impact due to changed expectation of profits on in-force

variable annuity business in future periods based on current period

separate account return, net of related hedging activitynote (b)

(187)

(377)

Other items including actual less long-term return on equity based investmentsnote (c)

(10)

84

Total US operations

(166)

(280)

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

Notes:

(a) The credit relating to fixed income securities comprises the following elements:

- the excess of actual realised gains and losses over the amortisation of interest related realised gains and losses recorded in the profit and loss account;

- credit loss experience (versus the longer-term assumption); and

- the impact of changes in the asset portfolio.

(b) This item reflects the net impact of:

- variances in projected future fees and future benefit costs arising from the effect of market fluctuations on the growth in separate account asset values in the current reporting period; and

- related hedging activity arising from realised and unrealised gains and losses on equity related hedges and interest rate options.

(c) For 2013, other items of £84 million primarily reflected a beneficial impact of the excess of actual over assumed return from investments in limited partnerships.

 

(iv) UK insurance operations

 

The short-term fluctuations in investment returns for UK insurance operations comprise:

 

2014 £m

2013* £m

Shareholder-backed annuitynote (a)

310

(58)

With-profits, Unit-linked and othernote (b)

273

86

583

28

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

Notes:

(a) Short-term fluctuations in investment returns for shareholder-backed annuity business comprise:

- gains/(losses) on surplus assets compared to the expected long-term rate of return reflecting reductions/(increases) in corporate bond and gilt yields;

- the difference between actual and expected default experience; and

- the effect of mismatching for assets and liabilities of different durations and other short-term fluctuations in investment returns.

(b) The short-term fluctuations in investment returns for with-profits, unit-linked and other business primarily arise from the excess of actual over expected returns for with-profits business, reflecting a total pre-tax return on the fund (including unallocated surplus) in 2014 of 9.5 per cent compared to an assumed rate of return of 5.0 per cent (2013: 8.0 per cent total return compared to assumed rate of 6.0 per cent). In addition, the amount includes the effect of a partial hedge of future shareholder transfers expected to emerge from the UK's with-profits sub-fund taken out during 2013. This hedge reduces the risks arising from equity market declines.

 

(v) Other operations

 

Short-term fluctuations in investment returns of other operations were negative £(93) million (2013: negative £(4) million) representing unrealised value movements on investments and foreign exchange items.

 

6 Effect of changes in economic assumptions

 

The effects of changes in economic assumptions for in-force business included in profit for the year, arise as follows:

 

(i) Group Summary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

2013* £m

Asia operationsnote (ii)

(269)

255

US operationsnote (iii)

(77)

242

UK insurance operationsnote (iv)

(23)

132

Total

(369)

629

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

(ii) Asia operations

The effect of changes in economic assumptions for Asia operations comprises:

2014 £m

2013* £m

Hong Kong

(121)

289

Malaysia

11

(62)

Indonesia

25

(176)

Singapore

(42)

90

Taiwan

(21)

92

Other

(121)

22

Total Asia operations

(269)

255

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

The negative effect of £(269) million in 2014 principally reflected the overall impact of the reduction in fund earned rates for participating business in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, driven by the decrease in long-term interest rates. A negative effect has been reported on non-participating business in Korea (adverse £(38) million) and Thailand (adverse £(34) million) for similar reasons. These amounts were partially offset by the positive effect of valuing future health and protection profits at lower discount rates in Indonesia and Malaysia.

 

The positive impact in 2013 of £255 million reflected the overall impact of an increase in fund earned rates for participating business, principally arising in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, mainly due to the increase in long-term interest rates. There were partial offsets arising in Indonesia and Malaysia, valuing the negative impact of future health and protection profits at a higher discount rate.

 

(iii) US operations

 

The effect of changes in economic assumptions for US operations comprises:

 

2014 £m

2013* £m

Effect of changes in 10-year treasury rates:

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed annuity and other general account business note (a)

151

(244)

Variable annuity businessnote (b)

(228)

382

Decrease in additional allowance for credit risknote (c)

104

Totalnote (d)

(77)

242

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

Notes:

(a) For fixed annuity and other general account business, the credit of £151 million in 2014 principally arises from the effect on the future projected spread income of applying a lower discount rate on the opening value of the in-force book, arising from the 90 basis points reduction in the 10-year treasury rates (2013: charge of £(244) million reflecting the 130 basis points increase).

(b) In 2014 there was a 90 basis points decline in 10-year treasury rates. For variable annuity business the charge of £(228) million principally reflects the net effect of the consequent decrease in the assumed future rate of return on the underlying separate account assets, resulting in lower projected fee income and an increase in projected benefit costs, partially offset by the decrease in the risk discount rate. The credit of £382 million in 2013 reflected an increase in the risk free rate of 130 basis points.

(c) For 2013 the £104 million effect of the decrease in the additional allowance for credit risk within the risk discount rate reflected the reduction in credit spreads (50 basis points for spread business and 10 basis points for variable annuity business).

(d) The overall credit in 2013 of £242 million included a charge of £(13) million for the effect of a change in required capital on the EEV basis from 235 per cent to 250 per cent of risk-based capital.

 

(iv) UK insurance operations

The effect of changes in economic assumptions for UK insurance operations comprises the following:

 

2014 £m

2013* £m

Effect of changes in expected long-term rates of return, risk discount rates and other changes:

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholder-backed annuity businessnote (a)

352

(56)

With-profits and other businessnote (b)

(375)

188

Total

(23)

132

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

Notes:

(a) For shareholder-backed annuity business the overall positive effect reflects the effect on the present value of projected spread income arising from the reduction in expected long-term rates of return and risk discount rates, following the swap rate decline in 2014.

(b) For with-profits and other business the total charge in 2014 of £(375) million (2013: credit of £188 million) includes the net effect of the reduction in fund earned rates and risk discount rates (as shown in note 17(iii)), arising from the 130 basis points decrease (2013: increase of 120 basis points) in the 15-year government bond rate and portfolio changes.

 

7 Sale of PruHealth and PruProtect business

 

On 10 November 2014, the Prudential Assurance Company Limited announced an agreement to sell its 25 per cent equity stake in the PruHealth and PruProtect businesses to Discovery Group Europe Limited. The sale was completed on 14 November 2014. This transaction gave rise to a gain on disposal of £44 million.

 

8 Held for sale Japan Life business

 

On 5 February 2015, the Group announced that it had completed the sale of its closed book life insurance business in Japan, PCA Life Insurance Company Limited to SBI Holdings, Inc. following regulatory approvals. The loss of Japan Life business in the 2013 results includes the reduction in EEV carrying value to reflect the completion of sale.

 

9 Domestication of the Hong Kong branch business

 

On 1 January 2014, following consultation with policyholders of PAC and regulators and court approval, the Hong Kong branch of PAC was transferred to separate subsidiaries established in Hong Kong. The 2014 EEV basis results includes opening adjustments arising from the transfer of capital that was previously held within the UK business in respect of the Hong Kong branch operations and additional capital requirements that arise from the newly established subsidiaries as follows:

 

2014 £m

Adjustment to shareholders' equity at

1 January 2014

Free surplus

Required capital

Total

net worth

Value of

in-force business

Total

long-term

business

operations

Asia operations

(104)

104

-

(40)

(40)

UK insurance operations

69

(69)

-

29

29

Opening adjustment

(35)

35

(11)

(11)

 

The net EEV basis effect of £(11) million represents the cost of holding higher required capital levels in the stand-alone Hong Kong shareholder-backed long-term insurance business. The post-tax costs incurred to enable the domestication in 2014 were £4 million (2013: £28 million).

 

10 Net core structural borrowings of shareholder-financed operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31 Dec 2014 £m

31 Dec 2013 £m

IFRS

basis

Mark to

market

value

adjustment

EEV

basis at

market

value

IFRS

basis

Mark to

market

value

adjustment

EEV

basis at

market

value

Holding company* cash and short-term investments

(1,480)

-

(1,480)

(2,230)

-

(2,230)

Core structural borrowings - central funds

3,869

579

4,448

4,211

392

4,603

Holding company net borrowings

2,389

579

2,968

1,981

392

2,373

Core structural borrowings - Prudential Capital

275

-

275

275

-

275

Core structural borrowings - Jackson

160

42

202

150

38

188

Net core structural borrowings of shareholder-financed operations

2,824

621

3,445

2,406

430

2,836

* Including central finance subsidiaries.

 

11 Analysis of movement in free surplus

 

Free surplus is the excess of the regulatory basis net assets for EEV reporting purposes (net worth) over the capital required to support the covered business. Where appropriate, adjustments are made to the net worth so that backing assets are included at fair value rather than cost so as to comply with the EEV Principles.

 

(i) Underlying free surplus generated

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 2013 comparative results are shown below on both actual exchange rates (AER) and constant exchange rates (CER) bases. The 2013 CER comparative results are translated at 2014 average exchange rates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

2013 £m

% change

 

 

AER

CER

*

AER

CER

Asia operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying free surplus generated from in-force

life business

860

819

742

5%

16%

Investment in new businessnotes (ii)(a), (ii)(g)

(346)

(310)

(285)

(12)%

(21)%

Long-term business

514

509

457

1%

12%

Eastspring Investmentsnote (ii)(b)

78

64

59

22%

32%

Total

592

573

516

3%

15%

US operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying free surplus generated from in-force

life business

 1,191

 1,129

 1,072

5%

11%

Investment in new businessnote (ii)(a)

(187)

(298)

(283)

37%

34%

Long-term business

1,004

831

789

21%

27%

Broker-dealer and asset managementnote (ii)(b)

6

39

37

(85)%

(84)%

Total

1,010

870

826

16%

22%

UK insurance operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying free surplus generated from in-force

life business

645

680

680

(5)%

(5)%

Investment in new businessnote (ii)(a)

(73)

(29)

(29)

(152)%

(152)%

Long-term business

572

651

651

(12)%

(12)%

General insurance commissionnote (ii)(b)

19

22

22

(14)%

(14)%

Total

591

673

673

(12)%

(12)%

M&G (including Prudential Capital)note (ii)(b)

386

346

346

12%

12%

Underlying free surplus generated

2,579

2,462

2,361

5%

9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Representing:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Long-term business:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expected in-force cashflows (including expected

return on net assets)

2,382

2,150

2,037

11%

17%

Effects of changes in operating assumptions,

operating experience variances and other

operating items

314

478

457

(34)%

(31)%

Underlying free surplus generated from

in-force life business

2,696

2,628

2,494

3%

8%

Investment in new businessnotes (ii)(a), (ii)(g)

(606)

(637)

(597)

5%

(2)%

Total long-term business

2,090

1,991

1,897

5%

10%

Asset managementnote (ii)(b)

489

471

464

4%

5%

Underlying free surplus generated

2,579

2,462

2,361

5%

9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(ii) Movement in Free surplus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Long-term business and asset management operations

2014 £m

2013 £m

 Long-term business

Asset management and UK general insurance commission

Free surplus of long-term business, asset management and UK general insurance commission

Free surplus of

 long-term business, asset management and UK general insurance commission

note 13

note (b)

Underlying movement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investment in new businessnotes (a), (g)

(606)

(606)

(637)

Business in force:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expected in-force cash flows (including expected return

on net assets)

2,382

489

2,871

2,621

Effects of changes in operating assumptions, operating

experience variances and other operating items

314

314

478

2,090

489

2,579

2,462

Increase in EEV assumed level of required capital

(58)

Loss attaching to held for sale Japan Life businessnote 8

(40)

Gain on sale of PruHealth and PruProtect notes 7, 13

130

130

 -

Other non-operating itemsnote (c)

(252)

(14)

(266)

(722)

1,968

475

2,443

1,642

Net cash flows to parent companynote (d)

(1,170)

(312)

(1,482)

(1,341)

Bancassurance agreement and purchase of Thanachart Life

 365

Exchange movements, timing differences and other itemsnote (e)

210

(80)

130

(352)

Net movement in free surplus

1,008

83

1,091

314

Balance at beginning of year:

 

 

 

 

 

As previously reported

3,220

783

4,003

3,689

Effect of domestication of Hong Kong branch on 1 January 2014note 9

(35)

(35)

-

Balance at 1 January

3,185

783

3,968

3,689

Balance at 31 December 2014 / 31 December 2013note (g)

4,193

866

5,059

4,003

Representing:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia operations

1,347

213

1,560

1,379

US operations

1,416

141

1,557

1,074

UK operations

1,430

512

1,942

1,550

4,193

866

5,059

4,003

Balance at beginning of year:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia operations

1,185

194

1,379

1,181

US operations

956

118

1,074

1,319

UK operations

1,079

471

1,550

1,189

3,220

783

4,003

3,689

 

Notes:

(a) Free surplus invested in new business represents amounts set aside for required capital and acquisition costs.

(b) For the purposes of this analysis, free surplus for asset management operations and the UK general insurance commission is taken to be IFRS basis post-tax earnings and shareholders' equity.

(c) Non-operating items are principally short-term fluctuations in investment returns and the effect of changes in economic assumptions for long-term business operations.

(d) Net cash flows to parent company for long-term business operations reflect the flows as included in the holding company cash flow at transaction rates.

(e) Exchange movements, timing differences and other items represent:

 

2014 £m

Long-term

business

Asset management and UK general insurance commission

Total

Exchange movementsnote 13

134

11

145

Mark to market value movements on Jackson assets backing surplus

and required capitalnote 12

77

77

Shareholders' share of actuarial and other gains and losses on defined

benefit pension schemes

(17)

(1)

(18)

Othernote (f)

16

(90)

(74)

210

(80)

130

 

(f) Other primarily reflects the effect of intra-group loans, contingent loan funding as shown in note 13(i), timing differences and other non-cash items.

(g) Investment in new business includes the annual amortisation charge of amounts incurred to secure exclusive distribution rights through our bancassurance partners at a rate that reflects the pattern in which the future economic benefits are expected to be consumed by reference to new business levels. Included within the overall free surplus balance of our Asian life entities is £304 million representing unamortised amounts incurred to secure exclusive distribution rights through bancassurance partners. These amounts exclude £883 million of Asia distribution rights intangibles that are financed by loan arrangements from central companies, the costs of which are allocated to the Asia life segment as the amortisation cost is incurred.

 

 

12 Reconciliation of movement in shareholders' equity

 

2014 £m

 

Long-term business operations

Other operations

Group

Total

 

Asia operations

US

operations

UK

insurance operations

Total

long-term business

operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

note (i)

note (i)

 

Post-tax operating profit (based on longer-

term investment returns)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Long-term business:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New businessnote 3

1,162

694

270

2,126

2,126

 

Business in forcenote 4

739

834

476

2,049

2,049

 

1,901

1,528

746

4,175

4,175

 

Asset management

470

470

 

Other results

(1)

(20)

(21)

(528)

(549)

 

Post-tax operating profit based on longer-

term investment returns

1,900

1,528

726

4,154

(58)

4,096

 

Total post-tax non-operating profit

170

(245)

600

525

(278)

247

 

Profit for the year

2,070

1,283

1,326

4,679

(336)

4,343

 

Other items taken directly to equity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exchange movements on foreign operations

and net investment hedges

375

483

858

(121)

737

 

Intra-group dividends (including statutory transfers)note (ii)

(410)

(413)

(200)

(1,023)

1,023

 

Investment in operationsnote (iii)

3

3

(3)

 

External dividends

(895)

(895)

 

Other movements note (iv)

9

(17)

(64)

(72)

126

54

 

Mark to market value movements on Jackson

assets backing surplus and required capital

77

77

77

 

Net increase in shareholders' equity

2,047

1,413

1,062

4,522

(206)

4,316

 

Shareholders' equity at beginning of year:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As previously reported

10,305

6,966

7,342

24,613

243

24,856

 

Effect of domestication of Hong Kong branch on

1 January 2014note 9

(40)

 -

29

(11)

 -

(11)

 

Shareholders' equity at 31 December 2014note (i)

12,312

8,379

8,433

29,124

37

29,161

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Representing:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Statutory IFRS basis shareholders' equity:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net assets

3,315

4,067

3,785

11,167

(819)

10,348

Goodwill

-

-

-

-

1,463

1,463

Total IFRS basis shareholders' equity

3,315

4,067

3,785

11,167

644

11,811

Additional retained profit (loss) on an EEV basisnote (v)

8,997

4,312

4,648

17,957

(607)

17,350

EEV basis shareholders' equity

12,312

8,379

8,433

29,124

37

29,161

Balance at 31 December 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Representing:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Statutory IFRS basis shareholders' equity:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net assets

2,564

3,446

2,976

8,986

(797)

8,189

Goodwill

-

-

-

-

1,461

1,461

Total IFRS basis shareholders' equity

2,564

3,446

2,976

8,986

664

9,650

Additional retained profit (loss) on an EEV basisnote (v)

7,741

3,520

4,366

15,627

(421)

15,206

EEV basis shareholders' equity

10,305

6,966

7,342

24,613

243

24,856

 

Notes:

(i) For the purposes of the table above, goodwill of £233 million (2013: £231 million) related to Asia long-term operations is included in Other operations.

(ii) Intra-group dividends (including statutory transfers) represent dividends that have been declared in the year and amounts accrued in respect of statutory transfers. The amounts included in note 11 for these items are as per the holding company cashflow at transaction rates. The difference primarily relates to intra-group loans, timing differences arising on statutory transfers, and other non-cash items.

(iii) Investment in operations reflects increases in share capital.

(iv) Included in other movements there was a charge of £(11) million (2013: £(53) million) for the shareholders' share of actuarial and other gains and losses on the defined benefit schemes.

(v) The additional retained loss on an EEV basis for Other operations primarily represents the mark to market value adjustment for holding company net borrowings of a charge of £(579) million (2013: £(392) million), as shown in note 10.

 

13 Reconciliation of movement in net worth and value of in-force for long-term business

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

Value of

long-term

Free

Required

Total net

in-force

business

Surplus

capital

 worth

business

operations

note 11

note (iii)

Group

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders' equity at beginning of year:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As previously reported

3,220

3,954

7,174

17,439

24,613

Effect of domestication of Hong Kong branch on 1 January 2014note 9

(35)

35

(11)

(11)

3,185

3,989

7,174

17,428

24,602

New business contributionnotes (ii) and 3

(606)

453

(153)

2,279

2,126

Existing business - transfer to net worth

2,276

(316)

1,960

(1,960)

Expected return on existing businessnote 4

106

81

187

1,253

1,440

Changes in operating assumptions and experience variances note 4

335

36

371

238

609

Development expenses, solvency II and restructuring costs

(21)

(21)

(21)

Post-tax operating profit based on longer-term investment returns

2,090

254

2,344

1,810

4,154

Gain on sale of PruHealth and PruProtectnote 7

130

(32)

98

(54)

44

Other non-operating items

(252)

220

(32)

513

481

Post-tax profit from long-term business

1,968

442

2,410

2,269

4,679

Exchange movements on foreign operations and net investment hedges

134

125

259

599

858

Intra-group dividends (including statutory transfers) and investment in

operationsnote (i)

(1,099)

(1,099)

79

(1,020)

Other movements

5

5

5

Shareholders' equity at 31 December 2014

4,193

4,556

8,749

20,375

29,124

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Representing:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders' equity at beginning of year:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As previously reported

1,185

977

2,162

8,143

10,305

Effect of domestication of Hong Kong branch on 1 January 2014note 9

(104)

104

(40)

(40)

1,081

1,081

2,162

8,103

10,265

New business contributionnotes (ii) and 3

(346)

130

(216)

1,378

1,162

Existing business - transfer to net worth

828

(23)

805

(805)

Expected return on existing businessnote 4

62

62

586

648

Changes in operating assumptions and experience variancesnote 4

(29)

44

15

76

91

Development expenses

(1)

(1)

(1)

Post-tax operating profit based on longer-term investment returns

514

151

665

1,235

1,900

Other non-operating items

118

70

188

(18)

170

Post-tax profit from long-term business

632

221

853

1,217

2,070

Exchange movements on foreign operations and net investment hedges

56

25

81

294

375

Intra-group dividends and investment in operations

(407)

(407)

(407)

Other movements

(15)

(15)

24

9

Shareholders' equity at 31 December 2014

1,347

1,327

2,674

9,638

12,312

 

US operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders' equity at 1 January 2014

956

1,607

2,563

4,403

6,966

New business contributionnotes (ii) and 3

(187)

216

29

665

694

Existing business - transfer to net worth

883

(210)

673

(673)

Expected return on existing businessnote 4

30

48

78

304

382

Changes in operating assumptions and experience variancesnote 4

278

4

282

170

452

Post-tax operating profit based on longer-term investment returns

1,004

58

1,062

466

1,528

Other non-operating items

(269)

(55)

(324)

79

(245)

Post-tax profit from long-term business

735

3

738

545

1,283

Exchange movements on foreign operations and net investment hedges

78

100

178

305

483

Intra-group dividends

(413)

(413)

(413)

Other movements

60

60

60

Shareholders' equity at 31 December 2014

1,416

1,710

3,126

5,253

8,379

 

UK insurance operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders' equity at beginning of year:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As previously reported

1,079

1,370

2,449

4,893

7,342

Effect of domestication of Hong Kong branch on 1 January 2014note 9

69

(69)

29

29

1,148

1,301

2,449

4,922

7,371

New business contributionnotes (ii) and 3

(73)

107

34

236

270

Existing business - transfer to net worth

565

(83)

482

(482)

Expected return on existing businessnote 4

14

33

47

363

410

Changes in operating assumptions and experience variancesnote 4

86

(12)

74

(8)

66

Solvency II and restructuring costs

(20)

(20)

(20)

Post-tax operating profit based on longer-term investment returns

572

45

617

109

726

Gain on sale of PruHealth and PruProtectnote 7

130

(32)

98

(54)

44

Other non-operating items

(101)

205

104

452

556

Post-tax profit from long-term business

601

218

819

507

1,326

Intra-group dividends (including statutory transfers)note (i)

(279)

(279)

79

(200)

Other movements

(40)

(40)

(24)

(64)

Shareholders' equity at 31 December 2014

1,430

1,519

2,949

5,484

8,433

 

Notes:

(i) The amounts shown in respect of free surplus and the value of in-force business for UK insurance operations for intra-group dividends (including statutory transfers) include the repayment of contingent loan funding. Contingent loan funding represents amounts whose repayment to the lender is contingent upon future surpluses emerging from certain contracts specified under the arrangement. If insufficient surplus emerges on those contracts, there is no recourse to other assets of the Group and the liability is not payable to the degree of shortfall.

(ii) New business contribution per £1 million of free surplus invested:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

2013 £m

Asia operations

US operations

UK

insurance operations

Total

long-term

business operations

Asia operations

US operations

UK

insurance operations

Total

long-term

business operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Post-tax new business

contributionnote 3

1,162

694

270

2,126

1,139

706

237

2,082

Free surplus invested in

new business

(346)

(187)

(73)

(606)

(310)

(298)

(29)

(637)

Post-tax new business contribution

£1 million of free surplus invested

3.4

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.7

2.4

8.2

3.3

 

(iii) The value of in-force business comprises the value of future margins from current in-force business less the cost of holding required capital as shown below:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31 Dec 2014 £m

31 Dec 2013 £m

Asia

operations

US

operations

UK

insurance

operations

Total

long-term

business

operations

Asia

operations

US

operations

UK

insurance

operations

Total

long-term

business

operations

Value of in-force business

before deduction of

cost of capital and

time value of guarantees

10,168

5,914

5,756

21,838

8,540

4,769

5,135

18,444

Cost of capital

(417)

(199)

(272)

(888)

(347)

(220)

(242)

(809)

Cost of time value of guaranteesnote (iv)

(113)

(462)

(575)

(50)

(146)

(196)

Net value of in-force business

9,638

5,253

5,484

20,375

8,143

4,403

4,893

17,439

 

(iv) The increase in the cost of time value of guarantees for US operations from £(146) million at 2013 to £(462) million at 2014 primarily relates to variable annuity business. It mainly arises from the decrease in the expected long-term separate account rate of return following the 90 basis points decline in the US 10-year treasury bond rate and the impact from new business written in the year, partly offset by the level of equity performance.

 

14 Expected transfer of value of in-force business to free surplus

 

The discounted value of in-force business and required capital can be reconciled to the 2014 and 2013 totals in the tables below for the emergence of free surplus as follows:

 

2014 £m

2013 £m

Required capitalnote 13

4,556

3,954

Value of in-force (VIF)note 13

20,375

17,439

Add back: deduction for cost of time value of guaranteesnote 13

575

196

Expected cashflow from sale of Japan Life business

(23)

(25)

Other itemsnote

(1,382)

(1,157)

Total

24,101

20,407

 

Note:

'Other items' represent amounts incorporated into VIF where there is no definitive timeframe for when the payments will be made or receipts received. In particular, other items includes the deduction of the value of the shareholders' interest in the estate, the value of which is derived by increasing final bonus rates so as to exhaust the estate over the lifetime of the in-force with-profits business. This is an assumption to give an appropriate valuation. To be conservative this item is excluded from the expected free surplus generation profile below.

 

Cash flows are projected on a deterministic basis and are discounted at the appropriate risk discount rate. The modelled cash flows use the same methodology underpinning the Group's embedded value reporting and so are subject to the same assumptions and sensitivities.

 

The table below shows how the VIF generated by the in-force business and the associated required capital is modelled as emerging into free surplus over future years.

 

 

2014 £m

Expected period of conversion of future post tax distributable earnings and required capital flows to free surplus

2014 Total as shown above

1-5 years

6 -10 years

11-15 years

16 -20 years

21-40 years

40+ years

Asia operations*

10,859

3,660

2,289

1,553

1,026

1,874

457

US operations

7,471

3,867

2,298

873

334

99

UK insurance operations

5,771

2,111

1,464

973

606

604

13

Total

24,101

9,638

6,051

3,399

1,966

2,577

470

100%

40%

25%

14%

8%

11%

2%

2013 £m

Expected period of conversion of future post tax distributable earnings and required capital flows to free surplus

2013Total as shown above

1-5 years

6 -10 years

11-15 years

16 -20 years

21-40 years

40+ years

Asia operations*

9,021

3,168

1,883

1,275

855

1,465

375

US operations

6,234

3,326

1,845

653

271

139

UK insurance operations

5,152

1,915

1,326

870

536

487

18

Total

20,407

8,409

5,054

2,798

1,662

2,091

393

100%

41%

25%

14%

8%

10%

2%

*Following its reclassification as held for sale, the Asia cashflows exclude any cashflows in respect of Japan.

15 Sensitivity of results to alternative assumptions

 

(a) Sensitivity analysis - economic assumptions

 

The tables below show the sensitivity of the embedded value as at 31 December 2014 (31 December 2013) and the post-tax new business contribution after the effect of required capital for 2014 and 2013 to:

 

• 1 per cent increase in the discount rates;

• 1 per cent increase and decrease in interest rates, including all consequential changes (assumed investment returns for all asset classes, market values of fixed interest assets, risk discount rates);

• 1 per cent rise in equity and property yields;

• 10 per cent fall in market value of equity and property assets (embedded value only);

• The statutory minimum capital level (by contrast to EEV basis required capital), (for embedded value only);

• 5 basis point increase in UK long-term expected defaults; and

• 10 basis point increase in the liquidity premium for UK annuities.

 

In each sensitivity calculation, all other assumptions remain unchanged except where they are directly affected by the revised economic conditions.

 

New business contribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

2013* £m

Asia operations

US operations

UK insurance operations

Total

long-term

business

operations

Asia operations

US operations

UK insurance operations

Total

long-term

business

operations

Post-tax new business contributionnote 3

1,162

694

270

2,126

1,139

706

237

2,082

Discount rates - 1% increase

(176)

(27)

(38)

(241)

(148)

(34)

(29)

(211)

Interest rates - 1% increase

13

61

(15)

59

23

47

(1)

69

Interest rates - 1% decrease

(52)

(101)

19

(134)

(55)

(69)

(124)

Equity/property yields - 1% rise

46

73

12

131

45

63

10

118

Long-term expected defaults - 5 bps increase

(10)

(10)

(6)

(6)

Liquidity premium - 10 bps increase

20

20

12

12

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

Embedded value of long-term business operations

 

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

2013 £m

 

 

 

Total

Total

 

 

UK

long-term

UK

long-term

Asia

US

insurance

business

Asia

US

insurance

business

operations

operations

operations

operations

operations

operations

operations

 operations

Shareholders' equitynote 12

12,312

8,379

8,433

29,124

10,305

6,966

7,342

24,613

Discount rates - 1% increase

 (1,214)

 (268)

 (602)

 (2,084)

 (992)

 (266)

 (529)

 (1,787)

Interest rates - 1% increase

 (462)

 (232)

 (362)

 (1,056)

 (297)

 (65)

 (380)

 (742)

Interest rates - 1% decrease

211

16

452

679

200

 (12)

443

631

Equity/property yields - 1% rise

435

365

282

1,082

370

250

210

830

Equity/property market values - 10% fall

 (221)

 (129)

 (380)

 (730)

 (183)

 (90)

 (238)

 (511)

Statutory minimum capital

129

139

4

272

109

153

4

266

Long-term expected defaults - 5 bps increase

 (139)

 (139)

 (114)

 (114)

Liquidity premium - 10 bps increase

278

278

228

228

 

The sensitivities shown above are for the impact of instantaneous changes on the embedded value of long-term business operations and include the combined effect on the value of in-force business and net assets at the balance sheet dates indicated. If the change in assumption shown in the sensitivities were to occur, then the effect shown above would be recorded within two components of the profit analysis for the following year. These are for the effect of economic assumption changes and short-term fluctuations in investment returns. In addition to the sensitivity effects shown above, the other components of the profit for the following year would be calculated by reference to the altered assumptions, for example new business contribution and unwind of discount, together with the effect of other changes such as altered corporate bond spreads. In addition for Jackson, the fair value movements on assets backing surplus and required capital which are taken directly to shareholders' equity would also be affected by changes in interest rates.

 

(b) Sensitivity analysis - non-economic assumptions

 

The tables below show the sensitivity of the embedded value as at 31 December 2014 (31 December 2013) and the post-tax new business contribution after the effect of required capital for 2014 and 2013 to:

 

• 10 per cent proportionate decrease in maintenance expenses (a 10 per cent sensitivity on a base assumption of £10 per annum would represent an expense assumption of £9 per annum);

• 10 per cent proportionate decrease in lapse rates (a 10 per cent sensitivity on a base assumption of 5 per cent would represent a lapse rate of 4.5 per cent per annum); and

• 5 per cent proportionate decrease in base mortality and morbidity rates (i.e. increased longevity).

 

New business contribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

2013* £m

Asia operations

US

operations

UK

insurance

operations

Total

long-term

business

operations

Asia operations

US

operations

UK

insurance

operations

Total

long-term

business

operations

Post-tax new business contributionnote 3

1,162

694

270

2,126

1,139

706

237

2,082

Maintenance expenses - 10% decrease

23

8

3

34

23

8

3

34

Lapse rates - 10% decrease

88

27

6

121

85

27

6

118

Mortality and morbidity - 5% decrease

52

2

(20)

34

58

4

(6)

56

Change representing effect on:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Life business

52

2

1

55

58

4

2

64

UK annuities

(21)

(21)

 -

 -

(9)

(9)

* The 2014 EEV results of the Group are presented on a post-tax basis and, accordingly, the 2013 results are shown on a comparable basis - see note 1.

 

Embedded value of long-term business operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014 £m

2013 £m

Asia

operations

US

operations

UK

insurance

operations

Total

long-term

business

operations

Asia

operations

US

operations

UK

insurance

operations

Total

long-term

business

operations

Shareholders' equitynote 12

12,312

8,379

8,433

29,124

10,305

6,966

7,342

24,613

Maintenance expenses - 10% decrease

136

71

56

263

126

59

58

243

Lapse rates - 10% decrease

422

354

67

843

352

294

79

725

Mortality and morbidity - 5% decrease

433

163

(347)

249

377

154

(254)

277

Change representing effect on:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Life business

433

163

9

605

377

154

20

551

UK annuities

(356)

(356)

(274)

(274)

 

 

16 Methodology and accounting presentation

 

(a)Methodology

 

Overview

The embedded value is the present value of the shareholders' interest in the earnings distributable from assets allocated to covered business after sufficient allowance has been made for the aggregate risks in that business. The shareholders' interest in the Group's long-term business comprises:

• the present value of future shareholder cash flows from in-force covered business (value of in-force business), less deductions for:

- the cost of locked-in required capital; and

- the time value of cost of options and guarantees;

• locked-in required capital; and

• the shareholders' net worth in excess of required capital (free surplus).

 

The value of future new business is excluded from the embedded value.

 

Notwithstanding the basis of presentation of results (as explained in note 16(b)(iii)) no smoothing of market or account balance values, unrealised gains or investment return is applied in determining the embedded value or profit. Separately, the analysis of profit is delineated between operating profit based on longer-term investment returns and other constituent items (as explained in note 16(b)(i)).

 

(i)Covered business

The EEV results for the Group are prepared for 'covered business', as defined by the EEV Principles. Covered business represents the Group's long-term insurance business for which the value of new and in-force contracts is attributable to shareholders. The post-tax EEV basis results for the Group's covered business are then combined with the post-tax IFRS basis results of the Group's other operations. Under the EEV Principles, the results for covered business incorporate the projected margins of attaching internal asset management, as described in note 16(a)(vii).

 

The definition of long-term business operations is consistent with previous practice and comprises those contracts falling under the definition for regulatory purposes together with, for US operations, contracts that are in substance the same as guaranteed investment contracts (GICs) but do not fall within the technical definition.

 

Covered business comprises the Group's long-term business operations, with two exceptions:

• the closed Scottish Amicable Insurance Fund (SAIF) which is excluded from covered business. SAIF is a ring-fenced sub-fund of the Prudential Assurance Company (PAC) long-term fund, established by a Court approved Scheme of Arrangement in October 1997. SAIF is closed to new business and the assets and liabilities of the fund are wholly attributable to the policyholders of the fund.

• the presentational treatment of the Group's principal defined benefit pension scheme, the Prudential Staff Pension Scheme (PSPS). The partial recognition of the surplus for PSPS is recognised in 'Other' operations.

 

A small amount of UK group pensions business is also not modelled for EEV reporting purposes.

 

(ii) Valuation of in-force and new business

The embedded value results are prepared incorporating best estimate assumptions about all relevant factors including levels of future investment returns, expenses, persistency and mortality (as described in note 17). These assumptions are used to project future cash flows. The present value of the future cash flows is then calculated using a discount rate which reflects both the time value of money and the non-diversifiable risks associated with the cash flows that are not otherwise allowed for.

 

New business

In determining the EEV basis value of new business, premiums are included in projected cash flows on the same basis of

distinguishing annual and single premium business as set out for statutory basis reporting.

 

New business premiums reflect those premiums attaching to covered business, including premiums for contracts classified as

investment products for IFRS basis reporting. New business premiums for regular premium products are shown on an annualised basis. Internal vesting business is classified as new business where the contracts include an open market option.

 

The post-tax contribution from new business represents profits determined by applying operating assumptions as at the end of the year.

 

For UK immediate annuity business and single premium Universal Life products in Asia, primarily in Singapore, the new business contribution is determined by applying economic assumptions reflecting point-of-sale market conditions. This is consistent with how the business is priced as crediting rates are linked to yields on specific assets and the yield is locked-in when the assets are purchased at the point-of-sale of the policy. For other business within the Group, end of year economic assumptions are used.

 

New business profitability is a key metric for the Group's management of the development of the business. In addition, post-tax new business margins are shown by reference to annual premium equivalents (APE) and the present value of new business premiums (PVNBP). These margins are calculated as the percentage of the value of new business profit to APE and PVNBP. APE is calculated as the aggregate of regular new business amounts and one-tenth of single new business amounts. PVNBP is calculated as equalling single premiums plus the present value of expected premiums of new regular premium business, allowing for lapses and other assumptions made in determining the EEV new business contribution.

 

Valuation movements on investments

With the exception of debt securities held by Jackson, investment gains and losses during the year (to the extent that changes in capital values do not directly match changes in liabilities) are included directly in the profit for the year and shareholders' equity as they arise.

 

The results for any covered business conceptually reflect the aggregate of the IFRS results and the movements on the additional shareholders' interest recognised on the EEV basis. Thus the start point for the calculation of the EEV results for Jackson, as for other businesses, reflects the market value movements recognised on the IFRS basis.

 

However, in determining the movements on the additional shareholders' interest, the basis for calculating the Jackson EEV result acknowledges that, for debt securities backing liabilities, the aggregate EEV results reflect the fact that the value of in-force business instead incorporates the discounted value of future spread earnings. This value is not affected generally by short-term market movements on securities that broadly speaking, are held for the longer-term.

 

Fixed income securities backing the free surplus and required capital for Jackson are accounted for at fair value. However, consistent with the treatment applied under IFRS for Jackson securities classified as available-for-sale, movements in unrealised appreciation on these securities are accounted for in equity rather than in the income statement, as shown in the movement in shareholders' equity.

 

(iii) Cost of capital

A charge is deducted from the embedded value for the cost of capital supporting the Group's long-term business. This capital is referred to as required capital. The cost is the difference between the nominal value of the capital and the discounted value of the projected releases of this capital allowing for investment earnings (post-tax) on the capital.

 

The annual result is affected by the movement in this cost from year-to-year which comprises a charge against new business profit and generally a release in respect of the reduction in capital requirements for business in force as this runs off.

Where required capital is held within a with-profits long-term fund, the value placed on surplus assets in the fund is already discounted to reflect its release over time and no further adjustment is necessary in respect of required capital.

 

(iv) Financial options and guarantees

 

Nature of financial options and guarantees in Prudential's long-term business

Asia operations

Subject to local market circumstances and regulatory requirements, the guarantee features described below in respect of UK business broadly apply to similar types of participating contracts principally written in the Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. Participating products have both guaranteed and non-guaranteed elements.

 

There are also various non-participating long-term products with guarantees. The principal guarantees are those for whole of life contracts with floor levels of policyholder benefits that accrue at rates set at inception and do not vary subsequently with market conditions.

 

US operations (Jackson)

The principal financial options and guarantees in Jackson are associated with the fixed annuity and variable annuity (VA) lines of business.

 

Fixed annuities provide that, at Jackson's discretion, it may reset the interest rate credited to policyholders' accounts, subject to a guaranteed minimum. The guaranteed minimum return varies from 1.0 per cent to 5.5 per cent for 2014 and 2013, depending on the particular product, jurisdiction where issued, and date of issue. For 2014, 86 per cent (2013: 86 per cent) of the account values on fixed annuities are for policies with guarantees of 3 per cent or less. The average guarantee rate is 2.7 per cent (2013: 2.8 per cent).

 

Fixed annuities also present a risk that policyholders will exercise their option to surrender their contracts in periods of rapidly rising interest rates, possibly requiring Jackson to liquidate assets at an inopportune time.

 

Jackson issues VA contracts where it contractually guarantees to the contract holder either: a) return of no less than total deposits made to the contract adjusted for any partial withdrawals; b) total deposits made to the contract adjusted for any partial withdrawals plus a minimum return; or c) the highest contract value on a specified anniversary date adjusted for any withdrawals following the specified contract anniversary. These guarantees include benefits that are payable at specified dates during the accumulation period (Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB)), as death benefits (Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits (GMDB)) or as income benefits (Guaranteed Minimum Income Benefits (GMIB)). These guarantees generally protect the policyholder's value in the event of poor equity market performance. Jackson hedges the GMDB and GMWB guarantees through the use of equity options and futures contracts, and fully reinsures the GMIB guarantees.

 

Jackson also issues fixed index annuities that enable policyholders to obtain a portion of an equity-linked return while providing a guaranteed minimum return. The guaranteed minimum returns are of a similar nature to those described above for fixed annuities.

 

UK insurance operations

For covered business the only significant financial options and guarantees in the UK insurance operations arise in the with-profits fund.

 

With-profits products provide returns to policyholders through bonuses that are smoothed. There are two types of bonuses - annual and final. Annual bonuses are declared once a year and, once credited, are guaranteed in accordance with the terms of the particular product. Unlike annual bonuses, final bonuses are guaranteed only until the next bonus declaration. The with-profits fund also held a provision on the Pillar I Peak 2 basis of £50 million at 31 December 2014 (31 December 2013: £36 million) to honour guarantees on a small number of guaranteed annuity option products.

 

The Group's main exposure to guaranteed annuity options in the UK is through the non-covered business of SAIF. A provision on the Pillar I Peak 2 basis of £549 million was held in SAIF at 31 December 2014 (31 December 2013: £328 million) to honour the guarantees. As described in note 16(a)(i) above, the assets and liabilities are wholly attributable to the policyholders of the fund. Therefore the movement in the provision has no direct impact on shareholders.

 

Time value

The value of financial options and guarantees comprises two parts. One is given by a deterministic valuation on best estimate assumptions (the intrinsic value). The other part arises from the variability of economic outcomes in the future (the time value). Where appropriate, a full stochastic valuation has been undertaken to determine the time value of the financial options and guarantees.

 

The economic assumptions used for the stochastic calculations are consistent with those used for the deterministic calculations. Assumptions specific to the stochastic calculations reflect local market conditions and are based on a combination of actual market data, historic market data and an assessment of long-term economic conditions. Common principles have been adopted across the Group for the stochastic asset models, for example, separate modelling of individual asset classes but with an allowance for correlation between the various asset classes. Details of the key characteristics of each model are given in

notes 17(iv),(v) and (vi).

 

In deriving the time value of financial options and guarantees, management actions in response to emerging investment and fund solvency conditions have been modelled. Management actions encompass, but are not confined to investment allocation decisions, levels of reversionary and terminal bonuses and credited rates. Bonus rates are projected from current levels and varied in accordance with assumed management actions applying in the emerging investment and fund solvency conditions.

 

In all instances, the modelled actions are in accordance with approved local practice and therefore reflect the options actually available to management. For the PAC with-profits fund, the actions assumed are consistent with those set out in the Principles and Practices of Financial Management which explains how regular and final bonus rates within the discretionary framework are determined, subject to the general legislative requirements applicable.

 

(v) Level of required capital

In adopting the EEV Principles, Prudential has based required capital on its internal targets subject to it being at least the local statutory minimum requirements. For with-profits business written in a segregated life fund, as is the case in Asia and the UK, the capital available in the fund is sufficient to meet the required capital requirements. For shareholder-backed business the following capital requirements apply:

• Asia operations: the level of required capital has been set to an amount at least equal to the higher of local statutory requirements and the internal target;

• US operations: the level of required capital has been set at 250 per cent of the risk-based capital required by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) at the Company Action Level (CAL); and

• UK insurance operations: the capital requirements are set to an amount at least equal to the higher of Pillar I and Pillar II requirements for shareholder-backed business of UK insurance operations as a whole.

 

(vi) With-profits business and the treatment of the estate

The proportion of surplus allocated to shareholders from the PAC with-profits fund has been based on the present level of 10 per cent. The value attributed to the shareholders' interest in the estate is derived by increasing final bonus rates (and related shareholder transfers) so as to exhaust the estate over the lifetime of the in-force with-profits business. In any scenarios where the total assets of the life fund are insufficient to meet policyholder claims in full, the excess cost is fully attributed to shareholders. Similar principles apply, where appropriate, for other with-profits funds of the Group's Asia operations.

 

(vii) Internal asset management

The new business and in-force results from long-term business include the projected value of profits or losses from asset management and service companies that support the Group's covered insurance businesses. The results of the Group's asset management operations include the current year profits from the management of both internal and external funds. EEV basis shareholders' other income and expenditure is adjusted to deduct the unwind of the expected internal asset management profit margin for the year. The deduction is on a basis consistent with that used for projecting the results for covered insurance business. Group operating profit accordingly includes the variance between actual and expected profit in respect of management of the covered business assets.

 

(viii) Allowance for risk and risk discount rates

 

Overview

Under the EEV Principles, discount rates used to determine the present value of future cash flows are set by reference to risk-free rates plus a risk margin. The risk margin should reflect any non-diversifiable risk associated with the emergence of distributable earnings that is not allowed for elsewhere in the valuation. Prudential has selected a granular approach to better reflect differences in market risk inherent in each product group. The risk discount rate so derived does not reflect an overall Group market beta but instead reflects the expected volatility associated with the cash flows for each product category in the embedded value model.

 

Since financial options and guarantees are explicitly valued under the EEV methodology, discount rates under EEV are set excluding the effect of these product features.

 

The risk margin represents the aggregate of the allowance for market risk, additional allowance for credit risk where appropriate, and allowance for non-diversifiable non-market risk. No allowance is required for non-market risks where these are assumed to be fully diversifiable.

 

Market risk allowance

The allowance for market risk represents the beta multiplied by an equity risk premium. Except for UK shareholder-backed annuity business (as explained below) such an approach has been used for all of the Group's businesses.

 

The beta of a portfolio or product measures its relative market risk. The risk discount rates reflect the market risk inherent in each product group and hence the volatility of product cash flows. These are determined by considering how the profits from each product are affected by changes in expected returns on various asset classes. By converting this into a relative rate of return it is possible to derive a product specific beta.

 

Product level betas reflect the most recent product mix to produce appropriate betas and risk discount rates for each major product grouping.

 

Additional credit risk allowance

The Group's methodology is to allow appropriately for credit risk. The allowance for total credit risk is to cover:

• expected long-term defaults;

• credit risk premium (to reflect the volatility in downgrade and default levels); and

• short-term downgrades and defaults.

 

These allowances are initially reflected in determining best estimate returns and through the market risk allowance described above. However, for those businesses which are largely backed by holdings of debt securities these allowances in the projected returns and market risk allowances may not be sufficient and an additional allowance may be appropriate.

 

The practical application of the allowance for credit risk varies depending upon the type of business as described below.

 

 

Asia operations

For Asia operations, the allowance for credit risk incorporated in the projected rates of return and the market risk allowance are sufficient. Accordingly no additional allowance for credit risk is required.

 

The projected rates of return for holdings of corporate bonds comprise the risk-free rate plus an assessment of long-term spread over the risk-free rate.

 

US operations (Jackson)

For Jackson business, the allowance for long-term defaults is reflected in the risk margin reserve (RMR) charge which is deducted in determining the projected spread margin between the earned rate on the investments and the policyholder crediting rate.

 

The risk discount rate incorporates an additional allowance for credit risk premium and short-term downgrades and defaults as shown in note 17(ii). In determining this allowance a number of factors have been considered. These factors, in particular, include:

(a) How much of the credit spread on debt securities represents an increased credit risk not reflected in the RMR long-term default assumptions, and how much is liquidity premium (which is the premium required by investors to compensate for the risk of longer-term investments which cannot be easily converted into cash, and converted at the fair market value). In assessing this effect, consideration has been given to a number of approaches to estimating the liquidity premium by considering recent statistical data; and

(b) Policyholder benefits for Jackson fixed annuity business are not fixed. It is possible in adverse economic scenarios to pass on a component of credit losses to policyholders (subject to guarantee features) through lower investment return rates credited to policyholders. Consequently, it is only necessary to allow for the balance of the credit risk in the risk discount rate.

 

The level of the additional allowance is assessed at each reporting period to take account of prevailing credit conditions and as the business in force alters over time. The additional allowance for variable annuity business has been set at one-fifth of the non-variable annuity business to reflect the proportion of the allocated holdings of general account debt securities.

 

The level of allowance differs from that for UK annuity business for investment portfolio differences and to take account of the management actions available in adverse economic scenarios to reduce crediting rates to policyholders, subject to guarantee features of the products.

 

UK operations

(1) Shareholder-backed annuity business

For Prudential's UK shareholder-backed annuity business, Prudential has used a market consistent embedded value (MCEV) approach to derive an implied risk discount rate which is then applied to the projected best estimate cash flows.

In the annuity MCEV calculations as the assets are generally held to maturity to match long duration liabilities, the future cash flows are discounted using the swap yield curve plus an allowance for liquidity premium based on Prudential's assessment of the expected return on the assets backing the annuity liabilities after allowing for:

(a) expected long-term defaults derived as a percentage of historical default experience based on Moody's data for the period 1970 to 2009 and the definition of the credit rating assigned to each asset held is the second highest credit rating published by Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch;

(b) a credit risk premium, which is derived as the excess over the expected long-term defaults, of the 95th percentile of historical cumulative defaults based on Moody's data for the period 1970 to 2009, and subject to a minimum margin over expected long-term defaults of 50 per cent;

(c) an allowance for a 1 notch downgrade of the asset portfolio subject to credit risk and;

(d) an allowance for short-term downgrades and defaults.

 

For the purposes of presentation in the EEV results, the results on this basis are reconfigured. Under this approach the projected earned rate of return on the debt securities held is determined after allowing for expected long-term defaults and, where necessary, an additional allowance for an element of short-term downgrades and defaults to bring the allowance in the earned rate up to best estimate levels. The allowances for credit risk premium, 1 notch downgrade and the remaining element of short-term downgrade and default allowances are incorporated into the risk margin included in the discount rate, as shown in note 17(iii)(b).

 

(2) With-profits fund non-profit annuity business

For UK non-profit annuity business including that attributable to the PAC with-profits fund, the basis for determining the aggregate allowance for credit risk is consistent with that applied for UK shareholder-backed annuity business (as described above). The allowance for credit risk for this business is taken into account in determining the projected cash flows to the with-profits fund, which are in turn discounted at the risk discount rate applicable to all of the projected cash flows of the fund.

 

(3) With-profits fund holdings of debt securities

The UK with-profits fund holds debt securities as part of its investment portfolio backing policyholder liabilities and unallocated surplus. The assumed earned rate for with-profit holdings of corporate bonds is defined as the risk-free rate plus an assessment of the long-term spread over gilts, net of expected long-term defaults. This approach is similar to that applied for equities and properties for which the projected earned rate is defined as the risk-free rate plus a long-term risk premium.

 

Allowance for non-diversifiable non-market risks

The majority of non-market and non-credit risks are considered to be diversifiable. Finance theory cannot be used to determine the appropriate component of beta for non-diversifiable non-market risks since there is no observable risk premium associated with it that is akin to the equity risk premium. Recognising this, a pragmatic approach has been applied.

 

A base level allowance of 50 basis points is applied to cover the non-diversifiable non-market risks associated with the Group's businesses. For the Group's US business and UK business other than shareholder-backed annuity, no additional allowance is necessary. For UK shareholder-backed annuity business a further allowance of 50 basis points is used to reflect the longevity risk which is of particular relevance. For the Group's Asia operations in China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, additional allowances are applied for emerging market risk ranging from 100 to 250 basis points.

 

(ix) Foreign currency translation

Foreign currency profits and losses have been translated at average exchange rates for the year. Foreign currency assets and liabilities have been translated at year end rates of exchange. The principal exchange rates are shown in note A1 of the IFRS statements.

 

(x) Taxation

In determining the post-tax profit for the year for covered business, the overall tax rate includes the impact of tax effects determined on a local regulatory basis. Tax payments and receipts included in the projected cash flows to determine the value of in-force business are calculated using rates that have been announced and substantively enacted by the end of the reporting period.

 

(xi) Inter-company arrangements

The EEV results for covered business incorporate annuities established in the PAC non-profit sub-fund from vesting pension polices in SAIF (which is not covered business). The EEV results also incorporate the effect of the reinsurance arrangement of non-profit immediate pension annuity liabilities of SAIF to PRIL. In addition, the free surplus and value of in-force business are calculated after taking account of the impact of contingent loan arrangements between Group companies (movements in the contingent loan liability are reflected via the projected cash flows in the value of in-force and the related funding is reflected in free surplus).

 

(b) Accounting presentation

 

(i) Analysis of post-tax profit

To the extent applicable, the presentation of the EEV post-tax profit for the year is consistent in the classification between operating and non-operating results with the basis that the Group applies for the analysis of IFRS basis results. Operating results reflect underlying results including longer-term investment returns (which are determined as described in note 16(b)(ii) below) and incorporate the following:

• new business contribution, as defined in note 16(a)(ii);

• unwind of discount on the value of in-force business and other expected returns, as described in note 16(b)(iii) below;

• the impact of routine changes of estimates relating to non-economic assumptions, as described in note 16(b)(iv) below; and

• non-economic experience variances, as described in note 16(b)(v) below.

 

Non-operating results comprise the following:

• short-term fluctuations in investment returns;

• the mark to market value movements on core borrowings;

• the effect of changes in economic assumptions;

• the gain on sale of PruHealth and PruProtect in 2014;

• the costs associated with the domestication of the Hong Kong branch which became effective on 1 January 2014; and

• the loss attaching to the held for sale Japan Life business.

 

Total profit attributable to shareholders and basic earnings per share include these items, together with actual investment returns. The Company believes that operating profit, as adjusted for these items, better reflects underlying performance.

 

(ii) Investment returns included in operating profit

For the investment element of the assets covering the net worth of long-term insurance business, investment returns are recognised in operating results at the expected long-term rate of return. These expected returns are calculated by reference to the asset mix of the portfolio. For the purpose of calculating the longer-term investment return to be included in the operating result of the PAC with-profits fund of UK operations, where assets backing the liabilities and unallocated surplus are subject to market volatility, asset values at the beginning of the reporting period are adjusted to remove the effects of short-term market movements as explained in note 16(b)(iii) below.

 

For the purpose of determining the long-term returns for debt securities of US operations for fixed annuity and other general account business, a risk margin charge is included which reflects the expected long-term rate of default based on the credit quality of the portfolio. For Jackson, interest-related realised gains and losses are amortised to the operating results over the maturity period of the sold bonds and for equity-related investments, a long-term rate of return is assumed, which reflects the aggregation of end of period risk-free rates and equity risk premium. For US variable annuity separate account business, operating profit includes the unwind of discount on the opening value of in-force adjusted to reflect end of period projected rates of return with the excess or deficit of the actual return recognised within non-operating profit, together with the related hedging activity.

For UK annuity business, rebalancing of the asset portfolio backing the liabilities to policyholders may, from time to time, take place to align it more closely with the internal benchmark of credit quality that management applies. Such rebalancing will result in a change in the projected yield on the asset portfolio and the allowance for default risk. The net effect of these changes is included in the result for the year.

 

 

(iii) Unwind of discount and other expected returns

The unwind of discount and other expected returns is determined by reference to:

• the value of in-force business at the beginning of the period (adjusted for the effect of current period economic and operating assumption changes); and

• required capital and surplus assets.

 

In applying this general approach, the unwind of discount included in operating profit for the with-profits business of UK insurance operations is determined by reference to the opening value of in-force, as adjusted for the effects of short-term investment volatility due to market movements (i.e. smoothed). In the summary statement of financial position and for total profit reporting, asset values and investment returns are not smoothed. At 31 December 2014 the shareholders' interest in the smoothed surplus assets used for this purpose only, were £194 million lower (31 December 2013: £136 million lower) than the surplus assets carried in the statement of financial position.

 

(iv) Effect of changes in operating assumptions

Operating profit includes the effect of changes to operating assumptions on the value of in-force at the end of the period. For presentational purposes, the effect of change is delineated to show the effect on the opening value of in-force with the experience variance being determined by reference to the end of period assumptions.

 

(v) Operating experience variances

Operating profits include the effect of experience variances on non-economic assumptions, which are calculated with reference to the embedded value assumptions at the end of the reporting period, such as persistency, mortality and morbidity, expenses and other factors.

 

(vi) Effect of changes in economic assumptions

Movements in the value of in-force business at the beginning of the period caused by changes in economic assumptions, net of the related change in the time value of cost of options and guarantees, are recorded in non-operating results.

 

17 Assumptions

 

Principal economic assumptions

The EEV basis results for the Group's operations have been determined using economic assumptions where the long-term expected rates of return on investments and risk discount rates are set by reference to period end rates of return on government bonds. Expected returns on equity and property asset classes and corporate bonds are derived by adding a risk premium, based on the Group's long-term view, to the risk-free rate.

The total profit that emerges over the lifetime of an individual contract as calculated using the embedded value basis is the same as that calculated under the IFRS basis. Since the embedded value basis reflects discounted future cash flows, under this methodology the profit emergence is advanced, thus more closely aligning the timing of the recognition of profits with the efforts and risks of current management actions, particularly with regard to business sold during the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(i) Asia operationsnote (b)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk discount rate %

10-year government

bond yield %

Expected

long-term Inflation %

New business

In force

31 Dec 2014

31 Dec 2013

31 Dec 2014

31 Dec 2013

31 Dec 2014

31 Dec 2013

31 Dec 2014

31 Dec 2013

China

10.2

11.2

10.2

11.2

3.7

4.7

2.5

2.5

Hong Kongnotes (b), (c)

3.7

4.9

3.7

4.8

2.2

3.1

2.3

2.3

India

13.0

14.0

13.0

14.0

8.0

9.0

4.0

4.0

Indonesia

12.0

12.5

12.0

12.5

7.9

8.6

5.0

5.0

Korea

6.7

7.4

6.5

7.6

2.6

3.6

3.0

3.0

Malaysianote (c)

6.6

6.5

6.6

6.5

4.1

4.2

2.5

2.5

Philippines

10.8

10.5

10.8

10.5

4.0

3.8

4.0

4.0

Singaporenote (c)

4.3

4.6

5.0

5.3

2.3

2.6

2.0

2.0

Taiwan

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.1

1.6

1.7

1.0

1.0

Thailand

9.5

10.7

9.5

10.7

2.7

3.9

3.0

3.0

Vietnam

14.0

15.7

14.0

15.7

7.2

9.0

5.5

5.5

Total weighted risk discount ratenote (a)

6.9

8.1

6.6

7.2

Equity risk premiums in Asia (excluding those for the held for sale Japan Life business) range from 3.5 per cent to 8.7 per cent for 2014 and 2013.

 

Notes:

(a) The weighted risk discount rates for Asia operations shown above have been determined by weighting each country's risk discount rates by reference to the post-tax EEV basis new business result and the closing value of in-force business. The changes in the risk discount rates for individual Asia territories reflect the movements in government bond yields, together with the effects of movements in the allowance for market risk and changes in product mix.

(b) For Hong Kong the assumptions shown are for US dollar denominated business. For other territories, the assumptions are for local currency denominated business.

(c) The mean equity return assumptions for the most significant equity holdings of the Asia operations were:

31 Dec 2014 %

31 Dec 2013 %

Hong Kong

6.2

7.1

Malaysia

10.1

10.1

Singapore

8.3

8.6

 

 

 

(ii) US operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31 Dec 2014 %

31 Dec 2013 %

Assumed new business spread margins:*

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Annuity business:**

 

 

 

 

 

 

January to June issues

1.5

1.2

July to December issues

1.5

1.75

Fixed Index Annuity business:

 

 

 

 

 

 

January to June issues

2.0

1.45

July to December issues

2.0

2.0

Institutional business

0.7

0.75

Allowance for long-term defaults included in projected spreadnote 16(a)(viii)

0.25

0.25

Risk discount rate:

 

 

 

 

 

Variable annuity:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk discount rate

6.9

7.6

Additional allowance for credit risk included in risk discount ratenote 16 (a)(viii)

0.2

0.2

Non-variable annuity:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk discount rate

3.9

4.8

Additional allowance for credit risk included in risk discount ratenote 16 (a)(viii)

1.0

1.0

Weighted average total:

 

 

 

 

 

 

New business

6.7

7.4

In force

6.2

6.9

US 10-year treasury bond rate at end of year

2.2

3.1

Pre-tax expected long-term nominal rate of return for US equities

6.2

7.1

Expected long-term rate of inflation

2.8

2.6

Equity risk premium

4.0

4.0

S&P equity return volatility note 17 (v)

18.0

19.0

* including the proportion of variable annuity business invested in the general account and fixed index annuity business, the assumed spread margin grades up linearly by 25 basis points to a long-term assumption over five years.

** including the proportion of variable annuity business invested in the general account.

 

(iii) UK insurance operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31 Dec 2014 %

31 Dec 2013 %

Shareholder-backed annuity business:note (b)

 

 

 

Risk discount rate:

 

 

 

 

 

New business

6.5

6.8

In forcenote (a)

6.9

8.3

Pre-tax expected long-term nominal rate of return for shareholder-backed annuity business:

 

 

 

 

 

New business

4.1

4.2

In forcenote (a)

3.2

4.3

Other business:

 

 

 

Risk discount rate:

 

 

 

 

 

New business

5.3

6.1

In force

5.9

6.8

Pre-tax expected long-term nominal rates of investment return:

 

 

UK equities

6.2

7.5

Overseas equities

6.2 to 9.0

7.1 to 9.2

Property

4.9

6.2

15-year gilt rate

2.2

3.5

Corporate bonds

3.8

5.1

Expected long-term rate of inflation

3.0

 3.4

Equity risk premium

4.0

4.0

 

Notes:

(a) For shareholder-backed annuity business, the movements in the pre-tax long-term nominal rates of return and the risk discount rates for in-force business mainly reflect the effect of changes in asset yields.

(b) Credit spread treatment: For Prudential Retirement Income Limited, which has approximately 90 per cent of UK shareholder-backed annuity business, the credit assumptions used in the underlying MCEV calculation (see note 16(a)(viii)) and the residual liquidity premium element of the bond spread over swap rates are as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Individual annuity new business

Total in-force business

31 Dec 2014 (bps)

31 Dec 2013 (bps)

31 Dec 2014 (bps)

31 Dec 2013 (bps)

Bond spread over swap rates

108

117

143

 133

Total credit risk allowance

29

37

58

 62

Liquidity premium

 79

 80

 85

 71

* The new business liquidity premium is based on the weighted average of the point of sale liquidity premia.

 

The overall allowance for credit risk is prudent by comparison with historic rates of default and would be sufficient to withstand a wide range of extreme credit events over the expected lifetime of the annuity business.

 

Stochastic assumptions

Details are given below of the key characteristics of the models used to determine the time value of the financial options and guarantees as referred to in note 16(a)(iv).

 

(iv) Asia operations

• The stochastic cost of guarantees is primarily of significance for the Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan operations.

• The principal asset classes are government and corporate bonds.

• The asset return models are similar to the models as described for UK insurance operations below.

• The volatility of equity returns ranges from 18 per cent to 35 per cent in both years, and the volatility of government bond yields ranges from 0.9 per cent to 2.3 per cent in both years.

 

(v) US operations (Jackson)

• Interest rates and equity returns are projected using a log-normal generator reflecting historical market data.

• Corporate bond returns are based on Treasury yields plus a spread that reflects current market conditions.

• The volatility of equity returns ranges from 18 per cent to 27 per cent (2013: 19 per cent to 32 per cent) and the standard deviation of interest rates ranges from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for both years.

 

(vi) UK insurance operations

• Interest rates are projected using a stochastic interest rate model calibrated to the current market yields.

• Equity returns are assumed to follow a log-normal distribution.

• The corporate bond return is calculated based on a risk-free bond return plus a mean-reverting spread.

• Property returns are also modelled on a risk-free bond return plus a risk premium with a stochastic process reflecting total property returns.

• The standard deviation of equities and property ranges from 15 per cent to 20 per cent for both years.

 

Operating assumptions

Best estimate assumptions

Best estimate assumptions are used for the cash flow projections, where best estimate is defined as the mean of the distribution of future possible outcomes. The assumptions are reviewed actively and changes are made when evidence exists that material changes in future experience are reasonably certain.

 

Assumptions required in the calculation of the value of options and guarantees, for example relating to volatilities and correlations, or dynamic algorithms linking liabilities to assets, have been set equal to the best estimates and, wherever material and practical, reflect any dynamic relationships between the assumptions and the stochastic variables.

 

Demographic assumptions

Persistency, mortality and morbidity assumptions are based on an analysis of recent experience but also reflect expected future experience. Where relevant, when calculating the time value of financial options and guarantees, policyholder withdrawal rates vary in line with the emerging investment conditions according to management's expectations.

 

Expense assumptions

Expense levels, including those of service companies that support the Group's long-term business operations, are based on internal expense analysis investigations and are appropriately allocated to acquisition of new business and renewal of in-force business. Exceptional expenses are identified and reported separately. For mature business, it is Prudential's policy not to take credit for future cost reduction programmes until the savings have been delivered. For businesses which are currently sub-scale (China, Malaysia Takaful and Taiwan) and India (where the business model is being adapted as the industry continues to adjust to regulatory changes), expense overruns are reported where these are expected to be short-lived.

 

For Asia operations, the expenses comprise costs borne directly and recharged costs from the Asia regional head office, that are attributable to covered business. The assumed future expenses for these operations also include projections of these future recharges. Development expenses are charged as incurred.

 

Corporate expenditure, which is included in other income and expenditure, comprises:

• Expenditure for Group head office, to the extent not allocated to the PAC with-profits funds, together with Solvency II implementation and restructuring costs, which are charged to the EEV basis results as incurred; and

• Expenditure of the Asia regional head office that is not allocated to the covered business or asset management operations which is charged as incurred. These costs are primarily for corporate related activities and are included within corporate expenditure.

 

Tax rates

The assumed long term effective tax rates for operations reflect the incidence of taxable profits and losses in the projected cash flows as explained in note 16(a)(x).

The local standard corporate tax rates applicable for the most significant operations for 2014 and 2013, are as follows:

 

Standard corporate tax rates

%

Asia operations:

Hong Kong

 

16.5*

Indonesia

25.0

Malaysia

2015: 25.0; From 2016: 24.0

Singapore

17.0

US operations

35.0

UK operations

20.0

* 16.5 per cent on 5 per cent of premium income

 

18 New business premiums and contributions note (i)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Single

Regular

Annual premium and contribution equivalents

 

 Present value of new business premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(APE)

 

(PVNBP)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

note 16(a)(ii)

 

note 16(a)(ii)

 

2014

£m

2013

£m

2014

£m

2013

£m

2014

£m

2013

£m

 

2014

£m

2013

£m

Group insurance operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia

 2,272

 2,136

 2,010

 1,911

 2,237

 2,125

 

 12,331

 11,375

US

 15,555

 15,712

 -

 2

 1,556

 1,573

 

 15,555

 15,723

UK

 6,681

 5,128

 189

 212

 857

 725

 

 7,471

 5,978

Group total

 24,508

 22,976

 2,199

 2,125

 4,650

 4,423

 

 35,357

 33,076

Asia insurance operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cambodia

 -

 -

 3

 1

 3

 1

 

 16

 3

Hong Kong

 419

 326

 603

 455

 645

 487

 

 3,861

 2,795

Indonesia

 280

 303

 357

 445

 385

 477

 

 1,619

 1,943

Malaysia

 117

 114

 189

 197

 201

 208

 

 1,284

 1,352

Philippines

 121

 193

 39

 34

 51

 53

 

 248

 299

Singapore

 677

 571

 289

 304

 357

 361

 

 2,683

 2,588

Thailand

 92

 66

 74

 61

 83

 68

 

 392

 289

Vietnam

 4

 2

 61

 54

 61

 54

 

 247

 204

SE Asia operations inc.

Hong Kong

 1,710

 1,575

 1,615

 1,551

 1,786

 1,709

 

 10,350

 9,473

Chinanote (ii)

 239

 114

 81

 71

 105

 83

 

 550

 409

Korea

 212

 311

 92

 82

 113

 113

 

 609

 641

Taiwan

 83

 102

 116

 107

 124

 117

 

 462

 491

Indianote (iii)

 28

 34

 106

 100

 109

 103

 

 360

 361

Total Asia insurance operations

 2,272

 2,136

 2,010

 1,911

 2,237

 2,125

 

 12,331

 11,375

US insurance operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variable annuities

 10,899

 10,795

 -

 -

 1,090

 1,079

 

 10,899

 10,795

Elite access (variable annuity)

 3,108

 2,585

 -

 -

 311

 259

 

 3,108

 2,585

Fixed annuities

 527

 555

 -

 -

 53

 55

 

 527

 555

Fixed index annuities

 370

 907

 -

 -

 37

 91

 

 370

 907

Life

 -

 1

 -

 2

 -

 2

 

 -

 12

Wholesale

 651

 869

 -

 -

 65

 87

 

 651

 869

Total US insurance operations

 15,555

 15,712

 -

 2

 1,556

 1,573

 

 15,555

 15,723

UK and Europe insurance operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct and partnership annuities

 162

 284

 -

 -

 16

 28

 

 162

 284

Intermediated annuities

 139

 488

 -

 -

 14

 49

 

 139

 488

Internal vesting annuities

 764

 1,305

 -

 -

 76

 131

 

 764

 1,305

Total individual annuities

 1,065

 2,077

 -

 -

 106

 208

 

 1,065

 2,077

Corporate pensions

 92

 120

 138

 161

 147

 173

 

 592

 686

Onshore bonds

 2,318

 1,754

 -

 -

 232

 176

 

 2,321

 1,756

Other products

 1,496

 901

 51

 51

 201

 140

 

 1,783

 1,183

Wholesale

 1,710

 276

 -

 -

 171

 28

 

 1,710

 276

Total UK and Europe insurance operations

 6,681

 5,128

 189

 212

 857

 725

 

 7,471

 5,978

Group total

 24,508

 22,976

 2,199

 2,125

 4,650

 4,423

 

 35,357

 33,076

 

Notes:

(i) The tables shown above are provided as an indicative volume measure of transactions undertaken in the reporting period that have the potential to generate profits for shareholders. The amounts shown are not, and not intended to be, reflective of premium income recorded in the IFRS income statement.

(ii) New business in China is included at Prudential's 50 per cent interest in the China life operation.

(iii) New business in India is included at Prudential's 26 per cent interest in the India life operation.

 

Additional Unaudited Financial Information

 

A New Business

 

BASIS OF PREPARATION

 

The format of the schedules is consistent with the distinction between insurance and investment products as applied for previous financial reporting periods. With the exception of some US institutional business, products categorised as 'insurance' refer to those classified as contracts of long-term insurance business for regulatory reporting purposes, i.e falling within one of the classes of insurance specified in part II of Schedule 1 to the Regulated Activities Order under PRA regulations.

 

The details shown for insurance products include contributions for contracts that are classified under IFRS 4 'Insurance Contracts' as not containing significant insurance risk. These products are described as investment contracts or other financial instruments under IFRS. Contracts included in this category are primarily certain unit-linked and similar contracts written in UK Insurance Operations, and Guaranteed Investment Contracts and similar funding agreements written in US Operations.

 

New business premiums for regular premium products are shown on an annualised basis. Internal vesting business is classified as new business where the contracts include an open market option. New business premiums reflect those premiums attaching to covered business, including premiums for contracts designed as investment products for IFRS reporting.

 

Investment products referred to in the tables for funds under management are unit trusts, mutual funds and similar types of retail fund management arrangements. These are unrelated to insurance products that are classified as investment contracts under IFRS 4, as described in the preceding paragraph, although similar IFRS recognition and measurement principles apply to the acquisition costs and fees attaching to this type of business.

 

New Business Profit (post-tax) has been determined using the European Embedded Value (EEV) methodology set out in our EEV preliminary report.

 

In determining the EEV basis value of new business written in the period policies incept, premiums are included in projected cash flows on the same basis of distinguishing annual and single premium business as set out for statutory basis reporting.

 

Annual premium equivalent (APE) sales are subject to rounding.

 

Notes to Schedules A(i) to A(x)

 

(1) Prudential plc reports its results using both actual exchange rates (AER) and constant exchange rates (CER) so as to eliminate the impact of exchange translation.

 

 Local currency: £

2014*

2013*

2014 vs 2013 (depreciation) appreciation of local currency against GBP

 Hong Kong

 

 Average Rate

 12.78

 12.14

 (5)%

 Closing Rate

 12.09

 12.84

6%

 Indonesia

 

 Average Rate

 19,538.56

 16,376.89

 (16)%

 Closing Rate

 19,311.31

 20,156.57

4%

 Malaysia

 

 Average Rate

 5.39

 4.93

 (9)%

 Closing Rate

 5.45

 5.43

0%

 Singapore

 

 Average Rate

 2.09

 1.96

 (6)%

 Closing Rate

 2.07

 2.09

1%

 India

 

 Average Rate

 100.53

 91.75

 (9)%

 Closing Rate

 98.42

 102.45

4%

 Vietnam

 

 Average Rate

 34,924.62

 32,904.71

 (6)%

 Closing Rate

 33,348.46

 34,938.60

5%

 Thailand

 

 Average Rate

 53.51

 48.11

 (10)%

 Closing Rate

 51.30

 54.42

6%

 US

 

 Average Rate

 1.65

 1.56

 (5)%

 Closing Rate

 1.56

 1.66

6%

 

*Average rate is for the full year to 31 December

 

(1a) Insurance new business for overseas operations are converted using the year-to-date average exchange rate applicable at the time (AER). The sterling results for individual quarters represent the difference between the year-to-date reported sterling results at successive quarters and will include foreign exchange movements from earlier periods.

(1b) Insurance new business for overseas operations for 2013 has been calculated using constant exchange rates (CER).

(1c) Constant exchange rates have been used to calculate insurance new business for overseas operations for all periods in 2013 and 2014.

(2) Annual Equivalents, calculated as regular new business contributions plus 10 per cent of single new business contributions, are subject to roundings. Present value of new business premiums (PVNBPs) are calculated as equalling single premiums plus the present value of expected premiums of new regular premium business. In determining the present value, allowance is made for lapses and other assumptions applied in determining the EEV new business profit.

(3) Balance includes segregated and pooled pension funds, private finance assets and other institutional clients. Other movements reflect the net flows arising from the cash component of a tactical asset allocation fund managed by PPM South Africa.

(4) New business in India is included at Prudential's 26 per cent interest in the India life operation.

(5) Balance Sheet figures have been calculated at the closing exchange rate.

(6) New business in China is included at Prudential's 50 per cent interest in the China life operation.

(7) Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) product sales in Hong Kong are included at Prudential's 36 per cent interest in Hong Kong MPF operation.

(8) Investment flows for the period exclude year-to-date Eastspring Money Market Funds (MMF) gross inflows of £67,749 million (2013: £62,536 million) and net inflows of £10 million (2013 net inflows: £522 million). For the discrete fourth quarter the MMF gross inflows were £17,353 million (2013: £17,072 million) and net outflows were £48 million (2013: net inflows of £604 million).

(9) Excludes Curian Variable Series Trust funds (internal funds under management).

(10) Total M&G and Eastspring excluding MMF. Funds under management for MMF amounted to £4,801 million at 31 December 2014 (31 December 2013: £4,297 million).

(11) With effect from 1 January 2015, APE and new business data for the UK and Europe Insurance Operations will be presented using revised product groupings shown in Schedule A(x). This aims to reflect the evolving revenue streams and present greater detail of for certain elements currently included within "Other".

 

 

Schedule A(i) - New Business Insurance Operations (Actual Exchange Rates)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Single

Regular

Annual Equivalents(2)

 

PVNBP

 

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

 

2014

2013

 

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

 

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

Group Insurance Operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia (1a)

 

 2,272

 2,136

6%

 2,010

 1,911

5%

 2,237

 2,125

5%

 

 12,331

 11,375

8%

US(1a)

 

 15,555

 15,712

(1)%

 -

 2

(100)%

 1,556

 1,573

(1)%

 

 15,555

 15,723

(1)%

UK

 

 6,681

 5,128

30%

 189

 212

(11)%

 857

 725

18%

 

 7,471

 5,978

25%

Group Total

 

 24,508

 22,976

7%

 2,199

 2,125

3%

 4,650

 4,423

5%

 

 35,357

 33,076

7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia Insurance Operations(1a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cambodia

 

 -

 -

N/A

 3

 1

200%

 3

 1

200%

 

 16

 3

433%

Hong Kong

 

 419

326

29%

 603

455

33%

 645

 487

32%

 

 3,861

 2,795

38%

Indonesia

 

 280

 303

(8)%

 357

 445

(20)%

 385

 477

(19)%

 

 1,619

 1,943

(17)%

Malaysia

 

 117

 114

3%

 189

 197

(4)%

 201

 208

(3)%

 

 1,284

 1,352

(5)%

Philippines

 

 121

 193

(37)%

 39

 34

15%

 51

 53

(4)%

 

 248

 299

(17)%

Singapore

 

 677

 571

19%

 289

 304

(5)%

 357

 361

(1)%

 

 2,683

 2,588

4%

Thailand

 

 92

 66

39%

 74

 61

21%

 83

 68

22%

 

 392

 289

36%

Vietnam

 

 4

 2

100%

 61

 54

13%

 61

 54

13%

 

 247

 204

21%

SE Asia Operations inc. Hong Kong

 

 1,710

 1,575

9%

 1,615

 1,551

4%

 1,786

 1,709

5%

 

 10,350

 9,473

9%

China(6)

 

 239

 114

110%

 81

 71

14%

 105

 83

27%

 

 550

 409

34%

Korea

 

 212

 311

(32)%

 92

 82

12%

 113

 113

0%

 

 609

 641

(5)%

Taiwan

 

 83

 102

(19)%

 116

 107

8%

 124

 117

6%

 

 462

 491

(6)%

India(4)

 

 28

 34

(18)%

 106

 100

6%

 109

 103

6%

 

 360

 361

(0)%

Total Asia Insurance Operations

 

 2,272

 2,136

6%

 2,010

 1,911

5%

 2,237

 2,125

5%

 

 12,331

 11,375

8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Insurance Operations(1a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variable Annuities

 

 10,899

 10,795

1%

 -

 -

N/A

 1,090

 1,079

1%

 

 10,899

 10,795

1%

Elite Access (Variable Annuity)

 

 3,108

 2,585

20%

 -

 -

N/A

 311

 259

20%

 

 3,108

 2,585

20%

Fixed Annuities

 

 527

 555

(5)%

 -

 -

N/A

 53

 55

(4)%

 

 527

 555

(5)%

Fixed Index Annuities

 

 370

 907

(59)%

 -

 -

N/A

 37

 91

(59)%

 

 370

 907

(59)%

Life

 

 -

 1

(100)%

 -

 2

(100)%

 -

 2

(100)%

 

 -

 12

(100)%

Wholesale

 

 651

 869

(25)%

 -

 -

N/A

 65

 87

(25)%

 

 651

 869

(25)%

Total US Insurance Operations

 

 15,555

 15,712

(1)%

 -

 2

(100)%

 1,556

 1,573

(1)%

 

 15,555

 15,723

(1)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UK & Europe Insurance Operations(11)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct and Partnership Annuities

 

 162

 284

(43)%

 -

 -

N/A

 16

 28

(43)%

 

 162

 284

(43)%

Intermediated Annuities

 

 139

 488

(72)%

 -

 -

N/A

 14

 49

(71)%

 

 139

 488

(72)%

Internal Vesting Annuities

 

 764

 1,305

(41)%

 -

 -

N/A

 76

 131

(42)%

 

 764

 1,305

(41)%

Total Individual Annuities

 

 1,065

 2,077

(49)%

 -

 -

N/A

 106

 208

(49)%

 

 1,065

 2,077

(49)%

Corporate Pensions

 

 92

 120

(23)%

 138

 161

(14)%

 147

 173

(15)%

 

 592

 686

(14)%

On-shore Bonds

 

 2,318

 1,754

32%

 -

 -

N/A

 232

 176

32%

 

 2,321

 1,756

32%

Other Products

 

 1,496

 901

66%

 51

 51

0%

 201

 140

44%

 

 1,783

 1,183

51%

Wholesale

 

 1,710

 276

520%

 -

 -

N/A

 171

 28

511%

 

 1,710

 276

520%

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

 

 6,681

 5,128

30%

 189

 212

(11)%

 857

 725

18%

 

 7,471

 5,978

25%

Group Total

 

 24,508

 22,976

7%

 2,199

 2,125

3%

 4,650

 4,423

5%

 

 35,357

 33,076

7%

 

 

Schedule A(ii) - New Business Insurance Operations (Constant Exchange Rates)

 

Note: In schedule A(ii) constant exchange rates have been used to calculate insurance new business for overseas operations for 2013.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Single

Regular

Annual Equivalents(2)

 

PVNBP

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

 

2014

2013

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

 

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

Group Insurance Operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia (1a) (1b)

 2,272

 1,982

15%

 2,010

 1,748

15%

 2,237

 1,946

15%

 

 12,331

 10,482

18%

US(1a) (1b)

 15,555

 14,920

4%

 -

 2

(100)%

 1,556

 1,494

4%

 

 15,555

 14,931

4%

UK

 6,681

 5,128

30%

 189

 212

(11)%

 857

 725

18%

 

 7,471

 5,978

25%

Group Total

 24,508

 22,030

11%

 2,199

 1,962

12%

 4,650

 4,165

12%

 

 35,357

 31,391

13%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia Insurance Operations(1a) (1b)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cambodia

 -

 -

N/A

 3

 1

200%

 3

 1

200%

 

 16

 3

433%

Hong Kong

 419

 310

35%

 603

 433

39%

 645

 464

39%

 

 3,861

 2,655

45%

Indonesia

 280

 254

10%

 357

 374

(5)%

 385

 399

(4)%

 

 1,619

 1,629

(1)%

Malaysia

 117

 104

13%

 189

 180

5%

 201

 190

6%

 

 1,284

 1,237

4%

Philippines

 121

 176

(31)%

 39

 30

30%

 51

 48

6%

 

 248

 272

(9)%

Singapore

 677

 536

26%

 289

 284

2%

 357

 338

6%

 

 2,683

 2,428

11%

Thailand

 92

 59

56%

 74

 55

35%

 83

 61

36%

 

 392

 260

51%

Vietnam

 4

 2

100%

 61

 51

20%

 61

 51

20%

 

 247

 192

29%

SE Asia Operations inc. Hong Kong

 1,710

 1,441

19%

 1,615

 1,408

15%

 1,786

 1,552

15%

 

 10,350

 8,676

19%

China(6)

 239

 108

121%

 81

 68

19%

 105

 78

35%

 

 550

 387

42%

Korea

 212

 307

(31)%

 92

 81

14%

 113

 112

1%

 

 609

 633

(4)%

Taiwan

 83

 95

(13)%

 116

 100

16%

 124

 110

13%

 

 462

 457

1%

India(4)

 28

 31

(10)%

 106

 91

16%

 109

 94

16%

 

 360

 329

9%

Total Asia Insurance Operations

 2,272

 1,982

15%

 2,010

 1,748

15%

 2,237

 1,946

15%

 

 12,331

 10,482

18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Insurance Operations(1a) (1b)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variable Annuities

 10,899

 10,251

6%

 -

 -

N/A

 1,090

 1,025

6%

 

 10,899

 10,251

6%

Elite Access (Variable Annuity)

 3,108

 2,455

27%

 -

 -

N/A

 311

 246

26%

 

 3,108

 2,455

27%

Fixed Annuities

 527

 527

0%

 -

 -

N/A

 53

 53

0%

 

 527

 527

0%

Fixed Index Annuities

 370

 861

(57)%

 -

 -

N/A

 37

 86

(57)%

 

 370

 861

(57)%

Life

 -

 1

(100)%

 -

 2

(100)%

 -

 2

(100)%

 

 -

 12

(100)%

Wholesale

 651

 825

(21)%

 -

 -

N/A

 65

 82

(21)%

 

 651

 825

(21)%

Total US Insurance Operations

 15,555

 14,920

4%

 -

 2

(100)%

 1,556

 1,494

4%

 

 15,555

 14,931

4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UK & Europe Insurance Operations(11)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct and Partnership Annuities

 162

 284

(43)%

 -

 -

N/A

 16

 28

(43)%

 

 162

 284

(43)%

Intermediated Annuities

 139

 488

(72)%

 -

 -

N/A

 14

 49

(71)%

 

 139

 488

(72)%

Internal Vesting Annuities

 764

 1,305

(41)%

 -

 -

N/A

 76

 131

(42)%

 

 764

 1,305

(41)%

Total Individual Annuities

 1,065

 2,077

(49)%

 -

 -

N/A

 106

 208

(49)%

 

 1,065

 2,077

(49)%

Corporate Pensions

 92

 120

(23)%

 138

 161

(14)%

 147

 173

(15)%

 

 592

 686

(14)%

On-shore Bonds

 2,318

 1,754

32%

 -

 -

N/A

 232

 176

32%

 

 2,321

 1,756

32%

Other Products

 1,496

 901

66%

 51

 51

0%

 201

 140

44%

 

 1,783

 1,183

51%

Wholesale

 1,710

 276

520%

 -

 -

N/A

 171

 28

511%

 

 1,710

 276

520%

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

 6,681

 5,128

30%

 189

 212

(11)%

 857

 725

18%

 

 7,471

 5,978

25%

Group Total

 24,508

 22,030

11%

 2,199

 1,962

12%

 4,650

 4,165

12%

 

 35,357

 31,391

13%

 

 

Schedule A(iii) - Total Insurance New Business APE - By Quarter (Actual Exchange Rates)

 

2013

2014

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Group Insurance Operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia (1a)

 495

 515

 513

 602

 507

 489

 548

 693

US(1a)

 358

 439

 405

 371

 432

 439

 364

 321

UK

 185

 170

 185

 185

 237

 196

 215

 209

Group Total

 1,038

 1,124

 1,103

 1,158

 1,176

 1,124

 1,127

 1,223

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia Insurance Operations(1a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cambodia

 -

 -

 -

 1

 -

 1

 1

 1

Hong Kong

 107

 107

 121

 152

 128

130

166

 221

Indonesia

 112

 128

 108

 129

 86

98

80

 121

Malaysia

 46

 53

 52

 57

 43

48

48

 62

Philippines

 14

 15

 12

 12

 11

11

13

 16

Singapore

 80

 90

 87

 104

 87

85

86

 99

Thailand

 11

 14

 22

 21

 25

17

18

 23

Vietnam

 10

 13

 14

 17

 11

12

16

 22

SE Asia Operations inc. Hong Kong

 380

 420

 416

 493

 391

 402

 428

 565

China(6)

 27

 20

 21

 15

 38

19

23

25

Korea

 30

 32

 23

 28

 26

22

32

33

Taiwan

 19

 26

 28

 44

 24

30

34

36

India(4)

 39

 17

 25

 22

 28

 16

 31

34

Total Asia Insurance Operations

 495

 515

 513

 602

 507

 489

 548

 693

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Insurance Operations(1a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variable Annuities

 240

 298

 271

 270

 317

297

260

216

Elite Access (Variable Annuity)

 54

 73

 64

 68

 69

80

80

82

Fixed Annuities

 14

 16

 14

 11

 12

15

14

12

Fixed Index Annuities

 34

 28

 22

 7

 8

10

10

9

Life

 1

 -

 -

 1

 -

 -

 -

 -

Wholesale

 15

 24

 34

 14

 26

37

 2

Total US Insurance Operations

 358

 439

 405

 371

 432

 439

 364

 321

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UK & Europe Insurance Operations(11)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct and Partnership Annuities

 8

 7

 7

 6

 5

5

4

2

Intermediated Annuities

 15

 14

 12

 8

 7

3

2

2

Internal Vesting Annuities

 32

 35

 31

 33

 24

19

17

16

Total Individual Annuities

 55

 56

 50

 47

 36

 27

 23

 20

Corporate Pensions

 53

 40

 45

 35

 40

39

38

30

On-shore Bonds

 45

 38

 43

 50

 49

53

60

70

Other Products

 32

 36

 32

 40

 39

46

57

59

Wholesale

 -

 -

 15

 13

 73

 31

 37

30

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

 185

 170

 185

 185

 237

 196

 215

 209

Group Total

 1,038

 1,124

 1,103

 1,158

 1,176

 1,124

 1,127

 1,223

 

 

Schedule A(iv) - Total Insurance New Business APE - By Quarter (2013 at Constant Exchange Rates)

 

Note: In schedule A(iv) constant exchange rates have been used to calculate insurance new business for overseas operations for all periods in 2013. Discrete quarters in 2014 are presented on actual exchange rates.

 

2013

2014

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Group Insurance Operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia(1b)

 437

 454

 473

 582

 507

 489

 548

 693

US(1b)

 337

 410

 381

 366

 432

 439

 364

 321

UK

 185

 170

 185

 185

 237

 196

 215

 209

Group Total

 959

 1,034

 1,039

 1,133

 1,176

 1,124

 1,127

 1,223

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia Insurance Operations(1b)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cambodia

 -

 -

 -

 1

 -

 1

 1

 1

Hong Kong

 101

 100

 114

 149

 128

 130

 166

 221

Indonesia

 87

 98

 91

 123

 86

 98

 80

 121

Malaysia

 40

 47

 49

 54

 43

 48

 48

 62

Philippines

 12

 13

 11

 12

 11

 11

 13

 16

Singapore

 73

 83

 82

 100

 87

 85

 86

 99

Thailand

 9

 13

 19

 20

 25

 17

 18

 23

Vietnam

 9

 12

 13

 17

 11

 12

 16

 22

SE Asia Operations inc. Hong Kong

 331

 366

 379

 476

 391

 402

 428

 565

China(6)

 26

 18

 20

 14

 38

 19

 23

 25

Korea

 29

 32

 23

 28

 26

 22

 32

 33

Taiwan

 18

 24

 26

 42

 24

 30

 34

 36

India(4)

 33

 14

 25

 22

 28

 16

 31

 34

Total Asia Insurance Operations

 437

 454

 473

 582

 507

 489

 548

 693

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Insurance Operations(1b)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variable Annuities

 226

 278

 255

 266

 317

 297

 260

 216

Elite Access (Variable Annuity)

 51

 68

 60

 67

 69

 80

 80

 82

Fixed Annuities

 13

 15

 13

 12

 12

 15

 14

 12

Fixed Index Annuities

 32

 26

 21

 7

 8

 10

 10

 9

Life

 1

 -

 -

 1

 -

 -

 -

 -

Wholesale

 14

 23

 32

 13

 26

 37

 -

 2

Total US Insurance Operations

 337

 410

 381

 366

 432

 439

 364

 321

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UK & Europe Insurance Operations(11)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct and Partnership Annuities

 8

 7

 7

 6

 5

 5

 4

 2

Intermediated Annuities

 15

 14

 12

 8

 7

 3

 2

 2

Internal Vesting Annuities

 32

 35

 31

 33

 24

 19

 17

 16

Total Individual Annuities

 55

 56

 50

 47

 36

 27

 23

 20

Corporate Pensions

 53

 40

 45

 35

 40

 39

 38

 30

On-shore Bonds

 45

 38

 43

 50

 49

 53

 60

 70

Other Products

 32

 36

 32

 40

 39

 46

 57

 59

Wholesale

 -

 -

 15

 13

 73

 31

 37

 30

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

185

170

185

185

237

196

215

209

Group Total

959

1,034

1,039

1,133

1,176

1,124

1,127

1,223

 

 

Schedule A(v) - Total Insurance New Business APE - By Quarter (2014 and 2013 at Constant Exchange Rates)

 

Note: In schedule A(v) constant exchange rates have been used to calculate insurance new business for overseas operations for all periods in 2013 and 2014 i.e the average exchange rate for the period ended 31 December 2014 is applied to each discrete quarter for 2013 and 2014.

 

2013

2014

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Group Insurance Operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia(1c)

 437

 454

 473

 582

 510

 496

 550

 681

US(1c)

 337

 410

 381

 366

 434

 448

 370

 304

UK

 185

 170

 185

 185

 237

 196

 215

 209

Group Total

 959

 1,034

 1,039

 1,133

 1,181

 1,140

 1,135

 1,194

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asia Insurance Operations(1c)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cambodia

 -

 -

 -

 1

 -

 1

 1

 1

Hong Kong

 101

 100

 114

 149

 130

 131

 169

 215

Indonesia

 87

 98

 91

 123

 86

 99

 79

 121

Malaysia

 40

 47

 49

 54

 44

 48

 47

 62

Philippines

 12

 13

 11

 12

 11

 12

 13

 15

Singapore

 73

 83

 82

 100

 86

 86

 87

 98

Thailand

 9

 13

 19

 20

 25

 18

 17

 23

Vietnam

 9

 12

 13

 17

 11

 13

 15

 22

SE Asia Operations inc. Hong Kong

 331

 366

 379

 476

 393

 408

 428

 557

China(6)

 26

 18

 20

 14

 38

 19

 24

 24

Korea

 29

 32

 23

 28

 27

 22

 32

 32

Taiwan

 18

 24

 26

 42

 24

 30

 35

 35

India(4)

 33

 14

 25

 22

 28

 17

 31

 33

Total Asia Insurance Operations

 437

 454

 473

 582

 510

 496

 550

 681

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Insurance Operations(1c)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variable Annuities

 226

 278

 255

 266

 319

 303

 264

 204

Elite Access (Variable Annuity)

 51

 68

 60

 67

 69

 82

 81

 79

Fixed Annuities

 13

 15

 13

 12

 12

 15

 15

 11

Fixed Index Annuities

 32

 26

 21

 7

 8

 10

 10

 9

Life

 1

 -

 -

 1

 -

 -

 -

 -

Wholesale

 14

 23

 32

 13

 26

 38

 -

 1

Total US Insurance Operations

 337

 410

 381

 366

 434

 448

 370

 304

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UK & Europe Insurance Operations(11)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct and Partnership Annuities

 8

 7

 7

 6

 5

 5

 4

 2

Intermediated Annuities

 15

 14

 12

 8

 7

 3

 2

 2

Internal Vesting Annuities

 32

 35

 31

 33

 24

 19

 17

 16

Total Individual Annuities

 55

 56

 50

 47

 36

 27

 23

 20

Corporate Pensions

 53

 40

 45

 35

 40

 39

 38

 30

On-shore Bonds

 45

 38

 43

 50

 49

 53

 60

 70

Other Products

 32

 36

 32

 40

 39

 46

 57

 59

Wholesale

 -

 -

 15

 13

 73

 31

 37

 30

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

185

170

185

185

237

196

215

209

Group Total

959

1,034

1,039

1,133

1,181

1,140

1,135

1,194

 

 

Schedule A(vi) - Investment Operations - By Quarter (Actual Exchange Rates)

 

 

2013

2014

 

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

 

£m

£m

£m

£m 

£m

£m

£m

£m

Group Investment Operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opening FUM

 

129,498

138,926

137,407

142,820

143,916

147,914

153,849

157,533

Net Flows:(8)

 

3,502

2,344

5,093

126

2,571

4,123

2,893

2,930

 - Gross Inflows

 

13,409

14,561

13,528

11,006

12,146

14,045

12,847

13,670

 - Redemptions

 

(9,907)

(12,217)

(8,435)

(10,880)

(9,575)

(9,922)

(9,954)

(10,740)

Other Movements

 

5,926

(3,863)

320

970

1,427

1,812

791

1,917

Total Group Investment Operations(10)

 

138,926

137,407

142,820

143,916

147,914

153,849

157,533

162,380

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

M&G

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Retail

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opening FUM

 

54,879

61,427

62,655

64,504

67,202

68,981

71,941

73,012

Net Flows:

 

2,446

2,308

1,132

1,456

1,291

2,493

1,531

1,371

 - Gross Inflows

 

7,213

8,138

5,919

6,789

7,305

7,468

6,801

7,414

 - Redemptions

 

(4,767)

(5,830)

(4,787)

(5,333)

(6,014)

(4,975)

(5,270)

(6,043)

Other Movements

 

4,102

(1,080)

717

1,242

488

467

(460)

(94)

Closing FUM

 

61,427

62,655

64,504

67,202

68,981

71,941

73,012

74,289

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comprising amounts for:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UK

 

41,194

39,953

40,955

42,016

42,199

42,392

41,756

40,705

Europe (excluding UK)

 

18,696

21,198

22,064

23,699

25,244

27,927

29,622

31,815

South Africa

 

1,537

1,504

1,485

1,487

1,538

1,622

1,634

1,769

 

61,427

62,655

64,504

67,202

68,981

71,941

73,012

74,289

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Institutional(3)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opening FUM

 

56,989

57,745

55,484

59,810

58,787

59,736

60,830

61,572

Net Flows:

 

(15)

(899)

3,928

(866)

152

275

138

(164)

 - Gross Inflows

 

2,656

2,591

5,364

2,163

1,655

2,894

2,295

2,185

 - Redemptions

 

(2,671)

(3,490)

(1,436)

(3,029)

(1,503)

(2,619)

(2,157)

(2,349)

Other Movements

 

771

(1,362)

398

(157)

797

819

604

1,350

Closing FUM

 

57,745

55,484

59,810

58,787

59,736

60,830

61,572

62,758

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total M&G Investment Operations

 

119,172

118,139

124,314

125,989

128,717

132,771

134,584

137,047

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPM South Africa FUM included in Total M&G

 

4,701

4,509

4,633

4,513

4,720

4,815

4,905

5,203

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eastspring - excluding MMF(8)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity/Bond/Other(7)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opening FUM

 

15,457

17,206

16,756

16,133

16,109

16,753

18,259

19,893

Net Flows:

 

795

838

65

118

540

1,063

1,127

1,640

 - Gross Inflows

 

3,122

3,596

2,214

1,982

2,546

3,285

3,583

3,760

 - Redemptions

 

(2,327)

(2,758)

(2,149)

(1,864)

(2,006)

(2,222)

(2,456)

(2,120)

Other Movements

 

954

(1,288)

(688)

(142)

104

443

507

360

Closing FUM(5)

 

17,206

16,756

16,133

16,109

16,753

18,259

19,893

21,893

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Party Institutional Mandates

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opening FUM

 

2,173

2,548

2,512

2,373

1,818

2,444

2,819

3,056

Net Flows:

 

276

97

(32)

(582)

588

292

97

83

 - Gross Inflows

 

418

236

31

72

640

398

168

311

 - Redemptions

 

(142)

(139)

(63)

(654)

(52)

(106)

(71)

(228)

Other Movements

 

99

(133)

(107)

27

38

83

140

301

Closing FUM(5)

 

2,548

2,512

2,373

1,818

2,444

2,819

3,056

3,440

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Eastspring Investment Operations

 

19,754

19,268

18,506

17,927

19,197

21,078

22,949

25,333

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Curian - FUM(5) (9)

 

6,315

6,466

6,371

6,601

6,781

6,948

7,421

7,933

 

 

Schedule A(vii) - Total Insurance New Business Profit (Actual Exchange Rates)

 

2013

2014

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2 

Q3

Q4

YTD

YTD

YTD

YTD

YTD

YTD 

YTD 

YTD 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m 

£m 

£m 

Post-tax analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Business Profit(1a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

237

502

767

1,139

243

494

775

 1,162

Total US Insurance Operations

125

311

492

706

195

376

530

 694

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

48

100

163

237

91

145

209

 270

Group Total

410

913

1,422

2,082

529

1,015

1,514

2,126

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Equivalent(1a) (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

495

1,010

1,523

2,125

507

996

1,544

2,237

Total US Insurance Operations

358

797

1,202

1,573

432

871

1,235

1,556

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

185

355

540

725

237

433

648

857

Group Total

1,038

2,162

3,265

4,423

1,176

2,300

3,427

4,650

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Business Margin (NBP as % of APE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

48%

50%

50%

54%

48%

50%

50%

52%

Total US Insurance Operations

35%

39%

41%

45%

45%

43%

43%

45%

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

26%

28%

30%

33%

38%

33%

32%

32%

Group Total

39%

42%

44%

47%

45%

44%

44%

46%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PVNBP(1a) (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

2,734

5,524

8,206

11,375

2,690

5,378

8,408

12,331

Total US Insurance Operations

3,581

7,957

12,006

15,723

4,323

8,703

12,352

15,555

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

1,540

2,943

4,398

5,978

2,072

3,741

5,598

7,471

Group Total

7,855

16,424

24,610

33,076

9,085

17,822

26,358

35,357

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Business Margin (NBP as % of PVNBP)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

8.7%

9.1%

9.3%

10.0%

9.0%

9.2%

9.2%

9.4%

Total US Insurance Operations

3.5%

3.9%

4.1%

4.5%

4.5%

4.3%

4.3%

4.5%

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

3.1%

3.4%

3.7%

4.0%

4.4%

3.9%

3.7%

3.6%

Group Total

5.2%

5.6%

5.8%

6.3%

5.8%

5.7%

5.7%

6.0%

 

 

Schedule A(viii) - Total Insurance New Business Profit (2013 at Constant Exchange Rates)

 

Note: In schedule A(viii) constant exchange rates have been used to calculate insurance new business for overseas operations for all periods in 2013. The year-to-date amounts for 2014 are presented on actual exchange rates.

 

2013

2014

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2 

Q3 

Q4

YTD

YTD

YTD

YTD

YTD

YTD 

YTD 

YTD 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m 

£m 

£m 

Post-tax analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Business Profit(1b)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

 204

 433

 678

 1,032

243

494

 775

 1,162

Total US Insurance Operations

 118

 292

 461

 670

195

376

530

 694

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

 48

 100

 163

 237

91

145

209

 270

Group Total

370

825

1,302

1,939

529

1,015

1,514

2,126

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Equivalent(1b) (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

437

891

1,364

1,946

507

996

1,544

2,237

Total US Insurance Operations

337

747

1,128

1,494

432

871

1,235

1,556

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

185

355

540

725

237

433

648

857

Group Total

959

1,993

3,032

4,165

1,176

2,300

3,427

4,650

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Business Margin (NBP as % of APE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

47%

49%

50%

53%

48%

50%

50%

52%

Total US Insurance Operations

35%

39%

41%

45%

45%

43%

43%

45%

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

26%

28%

30%

33%

38%

33%

32%

32%

Group Total

39%

41%

43%

47%

45%

44%

44%

46%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PVNBP(1b) (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

2,434

4,912

7,409

10,482

2,690

5,378

8,408

12,331

Total US Insurance Operations

3,374

7,456

11,267

14,931

4,323

8,703

12,352

15,555

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

1,540

2,943

4,398

5,978

2,072

3,741

5,598

7,471

Group Total

7,348

15,311

23,074

31,391

9,085

17,822

26,358

35,357

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Business Margin (NBP as % of PVNBP)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

8.4%

8.8%

9.2%

9.8%

9.0%

9.2%

9.2%

9.4%

Total US Insurance Operations

3.5%

3.9%

4.1%

4.5%

4.5%

4.3%

4.3%

4.5%

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

3.1%

3.4%

3.7%

4.0%

4.4%

3.9%

3.7%

3.6%

Group Total

5.0%

5.4%

5.6%

6.2%

5.8%

5.7%

5.7%

6.0%

 

 

Schedule A(ix) - Total Insurance New Business Profit (2014 and 2013 at Constant Exchange Rates)

 

Note: In schedule A(ix) constant exchange rates have been used to calculate insurance new business for overseas operations for all periods in 2013 and 2014, i.e the average exchange rates for the period ended 31 December 2014 are applied to each period for 2013 and 2014.

 

2013

2014

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2 

Q3

Q4

YTD

YTD

YTD

YTD

YTD

YTD 

YTD 

YTD 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m 

£m 

£m 

Post-tax analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Business Profit(1c)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

 204

 433

 678

 1,032

 244

 498

 781

 1,162

Total US Insurance Operations

 118

 292

 461

 670

 196

 381

 537

 694

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

 48

 100

 163

 237

 91

 145

 209

 270

Group Total

370

825

1,302

1,939

531

1,024

1,527

2,126

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Equivalent(1c) (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

437

891

1,364

1,946

510

1,006

1,556

2,237

Total US Insurance Operations

337

747

1,128

1,494

434

882

1,252

1,556

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

185

355

540

725

237

433

648

857

Group Total

959

1,993

3,032

4,165

1,181

2,321

3,456

4,650

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Business Margin (NBP as % of APE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

47%

49%

50%

53%

48%

50%

50%

52%

Total US Insurance Operations

35%

39%

41%

45%

45%

43%

43%

45%

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

26%

28%

30%

33%

38%

33%

32%

32%

Group Total

39%

41%

43%

47%

45%

44%

44%

46%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PVNBP(1c) (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

2,434

4,912

7,409

10,482

2,708

5,432

8,477

12,331

Total US Insurance Operations

3,374

7,456

11,267

14,931

4,343

8,818

12,516

15,555

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

1,540

2,943

4,398

5,978

2,072

3,741

5,598

7,471

Group Total

7,348

15,311

23,074

31,391

9,123

17,991

26,591

35,357

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Business Margin (NBP as % of PVNBP)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Asia Insurance Operations

8.4%

8.8%

9.2%

9.8%

9.0%

9.2%

9.2%

9.4%

Total US Insurance Operations

3.5%

3.9%

4.1%

4.5%

4.5%

4.3%

4.3%

4.5%

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

3.1%

3.4%

3.7%

4.0%

4.4%

3.9%

3.7%

3.6%

Group Total

5.0%

5.4%

5.6%

6.2%

5.8%

5.7%

5.7%

6.0%

 

 

Schedule A(x) - Total UK and Europe Insurance Operations New Business APE

 

With effect from 1 January 2015, New Business APE for the UK and Europe Insurance Operations will be presented using revised product groupings. This aims to bring greater focus to products and groupings that reflect the evolving UK market and the business strategy of our UK business. This schedule shows the 2014 and 2013 numbers on this revised basis that will be presented from the first quarter of 2015.

 

(a) Total UK & Europe Insurance New Business APE (AER)

 

(i) Current presentation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Single

Regular

Annual Equivalents(2)

 

PVNBP

 

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

 

2014

2013

 

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

 

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

Direct and Partnership Annuities

 

 162

 284

(43)%

 -

 -

N/A

 16

 28

(43)%

 

 162

 284

(43)%

Intermediated Annuities

 

 139

 488

(72)%

 -

 -

N/A

 14

 49

(71)%

 

 139

 488

(72)%

Internal Vesting Annuities

 

 764

 1,305

(41)%

 -

 -

N/A

 76

 131

(42)%

 

 764

 1,305

(41)%

Total Individual Annuities

 

 1,065

 2,077

(49)%

 -

 -

N/A

 106

 208

(49)%

 

 1,065

 2,077

(49)%

Corporate Pensions

 

 92

 120

(23)%

 138

 161

(14)%

 147

 173

(15)%

 

 592

 686

(14)%

On-shore Bonds

 

 2,318

 1,754

32%

 -

 -

N/A

 232

 176

32%

 

 2,321

 1,756

32%

Other Products

 

 1,496

 901

66%

 51

 51

-

 201

 140

44%

 

 1,783

 1,183

51%

Wholesale

 

 1,710

 276

520%

 -

 -

N/A

 171

 28

511%

 

 1,710

 276

520%

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

 

 6,681

 5,128

30%

 189

 212

(11)%

 857

 725

18%

 

 7,471

 5,978

25%

 

(ii) Revised presentation from 2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Single

Regular

Annual Equivalents(2)

 

PVNBP

 

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

 

2014

2013

 

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

 

YTD

YTD

+/- (%)

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

Individual Annuities

 

 1,065

 2,077

(49)%

 -

 -

N/A

 106

 208

(49)%

 

 1,065

 2,077

(49)%

Bonds

 

 2,934

 2,187

34%

 -

 -

N/A

 294

 219

34%

 

 2,937

 2,190

34%

Corporate Pensions

 

 92

 120

(23)%

 138

 161

(14%)

 147

 173

(15)%

 

 592

 686

(14)%

Individual Pensions

 

 508

 298

70%

 22

 21

5%

 72

 50

44%

 

 595

 377

58%

Income Drawdown

 

 352

 146

141%

 -

 -

N/A

 35

 15

133%

 

 352

 146

141%

Wholesale

 

 1,710

 276

520%

 -

 -

N/A

 171

 28

511%

 

 1,710

 276

520%

Other Products

 

 20

 24

(17)%

 29

 30

(3)%

 32

 32

0%

 

 220

 226

(3)%

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

 

 6,681

 5,128

30%

 189

 212

(11)%

 857

 725

18%

 

 7,471

 5,978

25%

 

 

Schedule A(x) - Total UK and Europe Insurance Operations New Business APE (continued)

 

(b) Total UK & Europe Insurance New Business APE - By Quarter (AER)

 

(i) Current presentation

2013

2014

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Direct and Partnership Annuities

 8

 7

 7

 6

 5

5

4

2

Intermediated Annuities

 15

 14

 12

 8

 7

3

2

2

Internal Vesting Annuities

 32

 35

 31

 33

 24

19

17

16

Total Individual Annuities

 55

 56

 50

 47

 36

 27

 23

 20

Corporate Pensions

 53

 40

 45

 35

 40

39

38

30

On-shore Bonds

 45

 38

 43

 50

 49

53

60

70

Other Products

 32

 36

 32

 40

 39

46

57

59

Wholesale

 -

 -

 15

 13

 73

 31

 37

30

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

 185

 170

 185

 185

 237

 196

 215

 209

 

(i) Revised presentation from 2015

2013

2014

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Individual Annuities

 55

 56

 50

 47

 36

27

23

20

Bonds

 52

 48

 55

 64

 63

67

77

87

Corporate Pensions

 53

 40

 45

 35

 40

39

38

30

Individual Pensions

 13

 13

 11

 13

 12

 15

 21

 24

Income Drawdown

 3

 3

 4

 5

 5

7

11

12

Wholesale

 -

 -

 15

 13

 73

31

37

30

Other Products

 9

 10

 5

 8

 8

 10

 8

6

Total UK & Europe Insurance Operations

 185

 170

 185

 185

 237

 196

 215

 209

 

B. Reconciliation of expected transfer of value of in-force business (VIF) and required capital to free surplus

 

The tables below show how the VIF generated by the in-force long-term business and the associated required capital is modelled as emerging into free surplus over the next 40 years. Although a small amount (less than 2 per cent) of the Group's embedded value emerges after this date analysis of cash flows emerging in the years shown in the tables is considered most meaningful. The modelled cash flows use the same methodology underpinning the Group's embedded value reporting and so are subject to the same assumptions and sensitivities.

 

In addition to showing the amounts, both discounted and undiscounted, expected to be generated from all in-force business at 31 December 2014, the tables also present the expected future free surplus to be generated from the investment made in new business during 2014 over the same 40 year period.

 

Expected transfer of value of in-force business (VIF) and required capital to free surplus

2014 £m

Undiscounted expected generation from

all in-force business at 31 December*

 

Undiscounted expected generation from

2014 long-term new business written*

Expected period of emergence

Asia

US

UK

Total

Asia

US

UK

Total

2015

953

1,054

506

2,513

124

241

25

390

2016

920

902

514

2,336

144

108

22

274

2017

883

844

501

2,228

149

118

23

290

2018

846

792

503

2,141

119

29

22

170

2019

819

866

494

2,179

118

114

23

255

2020

796

801

482

2,079

104

96

23

223

2021

795

774

473

2,042

107

86

24

217

2022

790

744

465

1,999

108

131

24

263

2023

780

662

470

1,912

103

113

24

240

2024

751

540

459

1,750

111

97

23

231

2025

739

464

448

1,651

96

83

24

203

2026

744

392

436

1,572

105

71

23

199

2027

735

335

423

1,493

93

63

22

178

2028

719

290

411

1,420

95

56

22

173

2029

695

248

401

1,344

103

49

22

174

2030

668

204

388

1,260

92

40

22

154

2031

654

186

375

1,215

92

35

22

149

2032

637

196

366

1,199

90

30

22

142

2033

621

113

348

1,082

88

24

22

134

2034

607

104

327

1,038

96

24

24

144

2035-2039

2,921

19

1,327

4,267

434

(14)

107

527

2040-2044

2,542

-

1,110

3,652

387

-

97

484

2045-2049

2,161

-

521

2,682

335

-

82

417

2050-2054

1,801

-

287

2,088

289

-

29

318

Total free surplus expected to emerge in

the next 40 years

24,577

10,530

12,035

47,142

3,582

1,594

773

5,949

 

* The analysis excludes amounts incorporated into VIF at 31 December 2014 where there is no definitive timeframe for when the payments will be made or receipts received. In particular it excludes the value of the shareholders' interest in the estate. It also excludes any free surplus emerging after 2054.Following their sale, the cash flows exclude any cash flows in respect of Japan and PruHealth and PruProtect.

 

The above amounts can be reconciled to the new business amounts as follows:

New business

2014 £m

Asia

US

UK

Total

Undiscounted expected free surplus generation for years 2015-2054

3,582

1,594

773

5,949

Less: discount effect

(2,111)

(532)

(451)

(3,094)

Discounted expected free surplus generation for years 2015-2054

1,471

1,062

322

2,855

Discounted expected free surplus generation for years 2054+

91

-

2

93

PruHealth and PruProtect free surplus generation for new business not

included above**

-

-

19

19

Less: Free surplus investment in new businessnote 13

(346)

(187)

(73)

(606)

Other items***

(54)

(181)

-

(235)

Post-tax EEV new business profitnote 13

1,162

694

270

2,126

 

** In November 2014 the Group disposed of its stake in the PruHealth and PruProtect businesses for an EEV profit of £44 million. New business profit for the year includes new business written by the businesses prior to the disposed date. For the analysis above such profits have been excluded as the Group has realised the cash through sale in 2014.

*** Other items represent the impact of the time value of options and guarantees on new business, foreign exchange effects and other non-modelled items. Foreign exchange effects arise as EEV new business profit amounts are translated at average exchange rates and the expected free surplus generation uses year end closing rates.

 

 

The undiscounted expected free surplus generation from all in-force business at 31 December 2014 shown below can be reconciled to the amount that was expected to be generated as at 31 December 2013 as follows:

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Other

Total

Group

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

2013 expected free surplus generation

for years 2014-2053**

 2,165

 2,109

 2,025

 1,911

 1,884

 1,814

 31,638

 43,546

Less: Amounts expected to be realised

in the current year

(2,165)

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

(2,165)

Add: Expected free surplus to be

generated in year 2054*

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 367

 367

Foreign exchange differences

 -

 77

 73

 67

 65

 63

 850

 1,195

New business

 -

 390

 274

 290

 170

 255

 4,570

 5,949

Sale of PruHealth and PruProtect

 -

(2)

(2)

(5)

(7)

(7)

(48)

(71)

Operating movements

 -

 9

(9)

 18

 47

 58

(1,632)

(1,679)

Non-operating and other movements

 -

(70)

(25)

(53)

(18)

(4)

2014 expected free surplus generation for

years 2015-2054**

 -

 2,513

 2,336

 2,228

 2,141

 2,179

 35,745

 47,142

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Other

Total

Asia

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

2013 expected free surplus generation

for years 2014-2053**

 801

 821

 798

 735

 705

 682

 17,471

 22,013

Less: Amounts expected to be realised

in the current year

(801)

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

(801)

Add: Expected free surplus to be

generated in year 2054 *

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 324

 324

Foreign exchange differences

 -

 25

 26

 23

 22

 21

 548

 665

New business

 -

 124

 144

 149

 119

 118

 2,928

 3,582

Operating movements

 -

 -

(29)

(1)

 7

 13

(1,115)

(1,206)

Non-operating and other movements

 -

(17)

(19)

(23)

(7)

(15)

2014 expected free surplus generation for

years 2015-2054**

 -

 953

 920

 883

 846

 819

 20,156

 24,577

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Other

Total

US

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

2013 expected free surplus generation

for years 2014-2053

 902

 817

 760

 709

 700

 666

 4,834

 9,388

Less: Amounts expected to be realised

in the current year

(902)

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

(902)

Add: Expected free surplus to be

generated in year 2054 *

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

Foreign exchange differences

 -

 52

 47

 44

 43

 42

 302

 530

New business

 -

 241

 108

 118

 29

 114

 984

 1,594

Operating movements

 -

(10)

 7

 10

 37

 35

(48)

(80)

Non-operating and other movements

 -

(46)

(20)

(37)

(17)

 9

2014 expected free surplus generation for

years 2015-2054

 -

 1,054

 902

 844

 792

 866

 6,072

 10,530

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Other

Total

UK

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

2013 expected free surplus generation

for years 2014-2053

 462

 471

 467

 467

 479

 466

 9,333

 12,145

Less: Amounts expected to be realised

in the current year

(462)

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

(462)

Add: Expected free surplus to be

generated in year 2054*

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 43

 43

New business

 -

 25

 22

 23

 22

 23

 658

 773

Sale of PruHealth and PruProtect

 -

(2)

(2)

(5)

(7)

(7)

(48)

(71)

Operating movements

 -

 19

 13

 9

 3

 10

(469)

(393)

Non-operating and other movements

 -

(7)

 14

 7

 6

 2

2014 expected free surplus generation for

years 2015-2054

 -

 506

 514

 501

 503

 494

 9,517

 12,035

 

* Excluding 2014 new business.

** Includes the removal of Japan life business following the sale.

 

At 31 December 2014 the total free surplus expected to be generated over the next five years (years 2015-2019 inclusive), using the same assumptions and methodology as those underpinning our embedded value reporting was £11.4 billion, an increase of £1.7 billion from the £9.7 billion expected over the same period at the end of 2013.

 

This increase primarily reflects the new business written in 2014, which is expected to generate £1,379 million of free surplus over the next five years. Operating, non-operating and disposal of our share of PruHealth and PruProtect and other items are expected to decrease free surplus generation by £70 million over the next five years, which is more than offset by the favourable foreign exchange movements of £345 million.

 

At 31 December 2014 the total free surplus expected to be generated on an undiscounted basis in the next forty years is £47.1 billion, up from the £43.5 billion expected at end of 2013 reflecting the effect of new business written across all three business operations and a positive foreign exchange translation effect arising in the US and Asia operations of £1.2 billion.These positive effects have been offset by a £(1.7) billion adverse effect reflecting operating, market assumption changes and the disposal of our share of PruHealth and PruProtect and other items. These principally reflect the impact of falling interest rates, particularly in Asia. The overall growth in the undiscounted value of free surplus reflects our ability to write both growing and profitable new business.

 

Actual underlying free surplus generated in 2014 from life business in-force at the end of 2014 was £2.7 billion inclusive of £0.3 billion of changes in operating assumptions and experience variances. This compares with the expected 2014 realisation at the end of 2013 of £2.2 billion. This can be analysed further as follows:

 

Asia

US

UK

Total

£m

£m

£m

£m

Transfer to free surplus in 2014

828

883

565

2,276

Expected return on free assets

62

30

14

106

Changes in operating assumptions and experience variances

(30)

278

66

314

Underlying free surplus generated from in-force life business in 2014

860

1,191

645

2,696

2014 free surplus expected to be generated at

31 December 2013

801

902

462

2,165

 

The equivalent discounted amounts of the undiscounted totals shown previously are shown below:

2014 £m

Discounted expected generation from all

in-force business at 31 December

Discounted expected generation from

long-term 2014 new business written

Expected period of emergence

Asia

US

UK

Total

Asia

US

UK

Total

2015

908

1,017

471

2,396

118

233

23

374

2016

807

820

457

2,084

125

97

20

242

2017

720

724

419

1,863

119

101

19

239

2018

644

642

397

1,683

88

23

18

129

2019

581

664

367

1,612

81

86

18

185

2020

529

576

337

1,442

67

68

16

151

2021

494

526

312

1,332

65

56

16

137

2022

459

478

289

1,226

61

81

15

157

2023

424

406

274

1,104

54

65

14

133

2024

383

312

252

947

54

52

13

119

2025

354

255

231

840

43

42

12

97

2026

335

204

212

751

45

33

11

89

2027

311

165

193

669

37

28

10

75

2028

289

137

176

602

36

23

10

69

2029

264

112

161

537

37

19

9

65

2030

239

90

146

475

32

15

8

55

2031

221

80

133

434

30

12

8

50

2032

204

83

122

409

28

10

7

45

2033

188

42

109

339

26

7

7

40

2034

174

39

96

309

28

7

7

42

2035-2039

747

99

321

1,167

112

4

27

143

2040-2044

518

-

195

713

82

-

18

100

2045-2049

362

-

63

425

60

-

12

72

2050-2054

247

-

25

272

43

-

4

47

Total discounted free surplus

expected to emerge in the next 40 years

10,402

7,471

5,758

23,631

1,471

1,062

322

2,855

 

 

The above amounts can be reconciled to the Group's financial statements as follows:

 

 

Total

£m

Discounted expected generation from all in-force business for years 2015-2054

23,631

Discounted expected generation from all in-force business for years after 2054

470

Discounted expected generation from all in-force business (excluding Japan) at 31 December 2014 note 14

24,101

Add: Free surplus of life operations held at 31 December 2014 note 13

4,193

Less: Time value of guarantees note 14

(575)

Expected cashflow from the sale of Japan Life business*

23

Other non-modelled items** note 14

1,382

Total EEV for life operations

29,124

 

* Upon completion of the sale of the Japan life business £23 million of free surplus will be released. See note 8 and note 14 of the EEV basis results section for further details.

** These relate to items where there is no definitive timeframe for when the payments will be made or receipts received and are, consequently, excluded from the amounts incorporated into the tables above showing the expected generation of free surplus from in-force business at 31 December 2014. In particular it excludes the value of the shareholders' interest in the estate.

 

C Foreign currency source of key metrics

 

The tables below show the Group's key free surplus, IFRS and EEV metrics analysis by contribution by currency group:

 

Free surplus and IFRS 2014 results

 

 

Underlying free surplus generated2

Pre-tax

Operating profit2,3,4

Shareholders'

funds2,3,4

 

%

%

%

US$ linked1

14

17

14

Other Asia currencies

9

18

18

Total Asia

23

35

32

UK sterling3,4

38

20

46

US$ 4

39

45

22

Total

100

100

100

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EEV 2014 results

 

 

 

 

 

 Post-tax New

Business profits

Post-tax

Operating Profit2,3,4

Shareholders'

Funds2,3,4

 

 

%

%

%

US$ linked1

 36

 35

 29

Other Asia currencies

 18

 13

 15

Total Asia

 54

 48

 44

UK sterling3,4

13

14

33

US$4

33

38

23

Total

100

100

100

 

 

 

 

 

Notes:

1US$ linked - comprising the Hong Kong and Vietnam operations where the currencies are pegged to the US dollar and the Malaysia and Singapore operations where the currencies are managed against a basket of currencies including the US dollar.

2Includes long-term, asset management business and other businesses.

3For operating profit and shareholders' funds UK sterling includes amounts in respect of central operations as well as UK insurance operations and M&G.

4 For shareholders' funds, the US$ grouping includes US$ denominated core structural borrowings. Sterling operating profits include all interest payable as sterling denominated, reflecting interest rate currency swaps in place.

 

D Results of sold PruHealth and PruProtect business

 

The tables below show the results of the sold PruHealth and PruProtect business which were included in the Group's results for full year and half year 2014.

 

 

IFRS 2014 results

 

 

2014 £m

Full year

Half year

Pre-tax operating profit

23

8

 

 

 

 

 

EEV 2014 post-tax results

 

 

 

2014 £m

Full year

Half year

APE sales

23

14

Operating profit

 

 

New business contribution

11

6

Total operating profit

11

8

 

 

APE and new business contribution

 

 

2014 £m

APE

Post-tax new

business

contribution

Full year 2014

23

11

Q3 2014

20

9

Half year 2014

14

6

Q1 2014

7

3

 

 

 

 

 

This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
 
END
 
 
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