28th Sep 2010 07:00
28 September 2010
Thomas Cook Group plc
Pre-close trading update
Ahead of its close period in the run up to preliminary results for the year ending 30 September 2010, Thomas Cook is providing an update on the trading position set out in its Interim Management Statement on 11 August 2010. Thomas Cook will announce its full year results on 1 December 2010.
Overview
Against a difficult market backdrop, UK bookings and prices have been relatively stable as we approach the end of the summer season and trading in our other markets has been in line with or above our expectations. Our cost experience in the UK has not been as favourable as expected, particularly in the airline, and this will result in a net impact of around £10 million on the underlying Group operating profit. At the time of the 11 August 2010 Interim Management Statement, we talked about a need to review our UK cost base and streamline operations in view of the difficult market backdrop. This review has commenced and we will report back to shareholders on the outcome of the exercise and actions being taken at the time of our full year results announcement. We are though, targeting substantial cost savings in the UK which, together with progress on previously announced strategic initiatives across the Group, should help to offset the uncertain economic backdrop that continues to prevail in the UK. Whilst still early in the season, winter 10/11 bookings have got off to an encouraging start.
Current trading Summer 10
Our summer programme is now almost complete, with cumulative bookings broadly in line with planned capacity in all our major source markets. Pricing trends are similar to those reported in August and our departed load factor remains high at 94%. As previously reported, trading in the UK business over the summer was softer than expected. In Germany, our tour operator and airline have continued to perform well with strong trading in recent weeks.
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Year on year variation % |
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Average selling price |
Cumulative bookings |
Last 4 weeks bookings |
Planned capacity |
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UK |
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+3 |
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-1 |
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-2 |
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-1 |
Central Europe |
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-3 |
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+4 |
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+5 |
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+4 |
West/East Europe |
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-1 |
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Flat |
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+10 |
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-1 |
Northern Europe |
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+6 |
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-1 |
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+5 |
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-1 |
Note: Figures as at 25/26 September. In Central and West/East Europe, bookings represent all bookings including cars/overland, however capacity represents airline seat capacity only. Northern Europe summer season is April-September.
Winter 10/11
We have made an encouraging start to the winter season, with cumulative bookings tracking ahead of planned capacity increases in all markets except Central Europe at this point. Whilst we continue to forecast broadly flat capacity in the UK and Northern Europe for winter, we have increased flight capacity in our West/East and Central markets to meet higher anticipated demand. However, we retain considerable flexibility in these markets to adjust our plans if required as most flying is with third parties. Pricing trends, bookings and booked load factors in most of our major source markets are currently ahead of last year.
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Year on year variation % |
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Average selling price |
Cumulative bookings |
Last 4 weeks bookings |
Planned Capacity |
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UK |
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+1 |
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+4 |
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+13 |
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Flat |
Central Europe |
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+6 |
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Flat |
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-2 |
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+5 |
West/East Europe |
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+7 |
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+8 |
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+5 |
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+6 |
Northern Europe |
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+2 |
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+6 |
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+13 |
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+1 |
Note: Figures as at 25/26 September. In Central and West/East Europe, bookings represent all bookings including cars/overland, however capacity represents airline seat capacity only. Northern Europe winter season is October-March.
UK: Winter bookings are 4% ahead of last year on broadly flat capacity and the programme is 34% booked overall, 1% ahead of last year. We have made good progress selling the early months of the season, with November now 65% sold, 6% points ahead of last year, and December 51% sold, 2% points up. Cumulative average selling prices are currently 1% ahead of last year.
Central Europe (Germany, Austria and Switzerland): Bookings got off to a strong start in Germany but have slowed in recent weeks following the announcement of the new aviation tax. As a result, cumulative bookings are currently flat on prior year. If bookings revert to the previous trend, we see scope for a capacity increase in the region of 5%. However, due to the high share of third party flying, flexibility is retained to reduce this if required. Prices are currently ahead of last year, reflecting the combination of a higher proportion of premium product sales and increased input costs. The Öger acquisition, announced on 12 July 2010, has now received antitrust clearance and is expected to complete shortly.
West/East Europe (France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Eastern Europe): Bookings are ahead of planned capacity in the West/East segment, with an encouraging performance in France and the Netherlands, offset to some extent by continued weakness in Belgium. Long haul flight bookings have been particularly strong, the main factor behind the 7% increase in average selling price.
Northern Europe: Northern Europe has had a good start to the winter season, with cumulative bookings running 6% ahead of last year and up on a planned 1% increase in capacity. Booked load factor at 48% is 2% ahead of last year, with average selling prices up 2%.
North America: In mainstream, cumulative bookings are 2% ahead of last year, slightly behind capacity, but margins are in line with our expectations. Prices remain under pressure due to continued overcapacity in the market. In independent travel, volumes are also ahead, up 8% year on year.
Airlines Germany: A good start to the winter season has lifted bookings 5%, with planned capacity up 7%. Yields are up 6%, and are particularly good on continental routes.
Summer 11
We are, as yet, only selling summer 11 in the UK market. Early bookings are good, up 9% and average selling prices are 4% ahead of last year. Over 50% of our bookings to date are for differentiated product concepts, supporting our strategy to further improve product mix, with customers responding particularly well to new formats in our Style brand and our family product range.
Hedging
Hedging for the current financial year is now effectively complete. We continue to hedge for future seasons in line with our previously stated hedging policy.
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Summer 2010 |
Winter 2010/11 |
Summer 2011 |
Euro |
98% |
93% |
77% |
US Dollar |
97% |
88% |
74% |
Fuel |
99% |
85% |
71% |
Note: As at 24 September 2010
Enquiries
Thomas Cook Group plc |
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Peter Waller |
Group M&A and Investor Relations Director |
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Investor Relations |
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+44 (0)20 7557 6413 |
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Finsbury |
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Faeth Birch |
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+44 (0)20 7251 3801 |
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Conference call for investors and analysts
A conference call for investors and analysts will take place today at 8am (UK time). Dial-in details for the call are as follows:
Dial-in number +44 (0)20 3003 2666
Conference name Thomas Cook Pre-Close Trading Update
Replay dial-in +44 (0) 20 8196 1998
Access number 5329465#
The replay will be available for 7 days until Tuesday 5 October 2010
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