20th Jun 2013 07:00
The Go-Ahead Group plc 4 Matthew Parker Street, London, SW1H 9NPTelephone 020 7799 8999 |
Press Release
20th June 2013
THE GO-AHEAD GROUP PLC
("GO-AHEAD" OR "THE GROUP")
PRE-CLOSE TRADING UPDATE
Resilient performance continues;
Overall full year expectations remain unchanged
The Go-Ahead Group plc today announces its pre-close trading update for the year ending 29th June 2013 ahead of its full year results announcement on 5th September 2013.
David Brown, Group Chief Executive of Go-Ahead, said:
"I am pleased to report continuing resilience across our operations. Both our bus and rail divisions have seen improved growth in passenger numbers in recent weeks, following the effect of adverse weather previously reported in the third quarter.
"Our bus division continues to trade well and is on track to deliver a better than expected result for the full year as we start to see the benefits of cost initiatives coupled with continued revenue growth. We are making good progress towards our target to organically grow bus operating profit to £100m by 2015/16.
"In rail, our team is working hard to deliver strong bids for both the Docklands Light Railway and Thameslink franchises. We also look forward to working with the Department for Transport in the coming months to agree terms for the full franchise extensions for Southeastern and London Midland announced in March.
"Whilst our overall expectations for the full year remain unchanged, we now expect a greater proportion of Group operating profit to come from the bus division."
Bus:
Deregulated:Bus operations outside London continue to perform well and revenue growth remains sector-leading.
Underlying volume growth has slightly improved in recent weeks following the adverse weather previously reported in the third quarter, and greater increases in fare-paying passengers continue to be partly offset by weaker concessionary performance.
In the second half of the year, we lapped the introduction of 4-7% fare increases brought in to coincide with the reduction of BSOG in April 2012. This has resulted in a more challenging comparative figure as average fare increases in the current year have been more in line with inflation.
As announced in our half year results, we expected the bus division to benefit from a number of small cost initiatives in the second half of the year. Some of these initiatives have been delivered ahead of plan and the bus division is now on track to deliver a better than expected result for the full year.
Expected full year growth rates:
Revenue | Passenger journeys | |
Total | c.8% | c.3% |
Excluding acquisitions | c.4% | c.1% |
Regulated:Our London operations continue to perform strongly despite the expected slower growth in the second half as we lap the introduction of new contracts during the prior year.
Expected full year growth rates:
Revenue | Mileage | |||
Total(including Olympics) | Underlying(excluding Olympics) | Total(including Olympics) | Underlying(excluding Olympics) | |
Total | c.12.5% | c.11% | c.8% | c.7.5% |
Excluding acquisitions | c.6.5% | c.5% | c.2.5% | c.2% |
Rail:
Our rail division operates the Southern (including Gatwick Express), Southeastern and London Midland franchises through our 65% owned subsidiary Govia.
As expected, growth in passenger numbers and revenue in our three franchises has improved in recent weeks compared to the previous quarter. However, despite robust trading, rail division profits will be impacted by higher than expected costs incurred in the fourth quarter.
Rail profitability is expected to be lower next year. In March 2014 Southeastern will begin a seven month extension period continuing on the original contract assumptions, which will not be profitable for the Group, and the Southern franchise continues to face challenging trading conditions, particularly prior to entering revenue support in September 2013.
Expected full year growth rates:
Passenger revenue* | Passenger journeys* | |||
Total(including Olympics) | Underlying(excluding Olympics) | Total(including Olympics) | Underlying(excluding Olympics) | |
Southern | c.5% | c.4.5% | c.0% | c.0% |
Southeastern | c.8% | c.7% | c.4% | c.3% |
London Midland | c.12% | c.11% | c.2% | c.1.5% |
*Passenger revenue and journeys associated with the Olympic and Paralympic Games are based on estimates.Outlook:Overall, trading across the Group has remained resilient and we are confident that we will deliver a full year result in line with our expectations. Whilst our overall expectations remain unchanged, we now expect a greater proportion of Group operating profit to come from the bus division.
Our bus division continues to trade well and is on track to deliver a better than expected result for the full year, whilst rail profits will be impacted by higher than expected costs in the division.
We await the detail of the Government Spending Review later this month and continue to emphasise the importance of investment in public transport in ensuring sustainable economic growth in the UK.
Looking ahead to next year, we expect our bus division to continue to make good progress towards our bus operating profit target of £100m** by 2015/16. Rail profitability is expected to be lower next year due to Southeastern's unprofitable extension period and the challenging trading conditions in the Southern franchise.
The Group remains in a good financial position with strong cash generation and a robust balance sheet, underpinning the dividend policy and allowing flexibility to pursue value-adding opportunities. We continue to focus on our key strengths of providing high quality, locally-focused and innovative transport services.
**Our £100m bus operating profit target excludes amortisation, exceptional items and the impact of IAS 19 (revised).
ENDS
Go-Ahead will be hosting a series of meetings with analysts throughout the day.
For further information, please contact:
The Go-Ahead Group | |
David Brown, Group Chief Executive | 020 7799 8971 |
Keith Down, Group Finance Director | 020 7799 8973 |
Holly Birch, Head of Investor Relations | 07837 612 661 |
Citigate Dewe Rogerson |
|
Michael Berkeley | 020 7638 9571 |
Chris Barrie | |
Angharad Couch |
|
GO-AHEADGo-Ahead is a leading UK public transport operator, providing high quality services in the bus and rail sectors. Employing around 23,000 people across the country, over one billion passenger journeys are undertaken on our services each year. We are committed to operating our companies in a safe, socially and environmentally responsible way and are proud to have been reaccredited with Carbon Trust Standard after taking action on climate change. In addition to the travelling public, our customers include the Department for Transport, Transport for London (TfL) and local authorities.
BUSGo-Ahead is one of the UK's largest bus operators. With a fleet of around 4,600 buses, we carry nearly two million passengers every day. Our operations are focused on high density commuter markets. We have a strong presence in London, with around 24 per cent market share, where we provide regulated services for TfL. We operate deregulated services in Oxford, East Anglia, the South East, Southern and North East England. We also have a small yellow school bus joint venture in North America.
RAILThe rail operation, Govia, is 65 per cent owned by Go-Ahead and 35 per cent by Keolis. It is the busiest rail operation in the UK, responsible for nearly 30 per cent of all UK passenger rail journeys through its three rail franchises: Southern (which includes the Gatwick Express), Southeastern and London Midland. In December 2009, Southeastern began operating the UK's first high speed domestic rail service between Kent and London, significantly reducing journey times.
Legal disclaimerCertain statements included in this press release contain forward-looking information concerning the Group's strategy, operations, financial performance or condition, outlook, growth opportunities or circumstances in the sectors or markets in which the Group operates. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve uncertainty because they depend of future circumstances, and relate to events, not all of which are within the Company's control or can be produced by the Company. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Actual results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements. Nothing in this press release should be construed as a profit forecast and no part of these results constitutes, or shall be taken to constitute, an invitation or inducement to invest in The Go-Ahead Group plc or any other entity, and must not be relied upon in any way in connection with any investment decision. Except as required by law, the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
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