17th Sep 2014 07:00
17 September 2014
Daily Mail and General Trust plc ('DMGT')
Pre Close Trading Update
Ahead of the year end on 30 September 2014 and DMGT's Investor Briefing tomorrow afternoon, this statement provides an update on the Group's progress in the current year. It covers the eleven month period to the end of August 2014 and includes comments on September where practicable.
Trading in line with expectations; Group outlook for the year reconfirmed
· Solid Group revenue performance, up 5% underlying#
· Good revenue growth from B2B operations, up 8% underlying#
· RMS(one) staged programme of incremental deliverables during 2015; impairment of asset value in current financial year; revenue and profit impact for FY 2015
· dmg media's underlying# revenue in line with last year, with good advertising revenue growth of 5% offsetting the expected decline in circulation revenues
· Active portfolio management throughout the year, including Zoopla Property Group IPO, Evenbase disposals and DIIG(E) acquisition
· £100 million share buy back programme completed; announcement of further share buy back programme of up to £100 million
· Net debt : EBITDA ratio expected to be comfortably below 2.0x at year end
· Full Year guidance unchanged and in line with market expectations~
Revenue Growth v Prior Year 11 months to August 2014 | Reported
| Underlying#
|
Group revenue+ | +1% | +5% |
B2B (including Euromoney) | +12% | +8% |
RMS | -1% | +5% |
dmg information | +34% | +13% |
dmg events | +18% | +23% |
dmg media | -4% | +0% |
Business to Business (B2B)
Our reported revenues benefited from strategic bolt-on acquisitions but were adversely impacted by the stronger British pound relative to the US dollar.
· Risk Management Solutions (RMS) delivered continued underlying# growth, driven by its core catastrophe risk modelling business which continues to progress, with updates to the European Windstorm and North Atlantic Hurricane models scheduled for release in early 2015. RMS is also developing the industry's first high-definition models, which will include Japan Typhoon, European Flood, New Zealand Earthquake and US Earthquake.
Following the postponement of the launch of RMS(one), the approach to the development of the product has changed with certain elements of the existing software being improved and simplified in order to enhance the product's performance, functionality and openness. There is now a revised plan being implemented which will result in a programme of incremental deliverables to Joint Development Partner clients during 2015. RMS expects that this lower risk phased approach will lead to staged utilisation by RMS's broader client base. A further update on the broader release plan will be made in early 2015. At a minimum, RMS(one) intends to deliver RMS's first high-definition models to the broader client base by late 2015. The models of RMS's ecosystem partners also remain a high priority.
Following the revisions to the timing of RMS(one) releases and the anticipated phasing of client adoption, there will be a material impairment to the c.£85m carrying value of the asset in the current financial year. There will also be approximately £5 million of additional operating costs due to the delayed launch. As a consequence, adjusted operating profit for the current financial year is expected to be at the bottom end of market expectations∞.
Given the delay in the launch of RMS(one) with staged incremental releases during 2015, significant revenues and amortisation costs are not expected to commence until financial year 2016. With the changed approach to product development, capitalised development expenditure in financial year 2015 is expected to be materially lower than the c.£35 million in the current financial year.
The combination of the reduced capitalisation of development costs and committed increases in data centre costs for RMS(one) will result in RMS's overall operating profit margin being around 10% to 15% in financial year 2015.
· Strong growth at dmg information, with good performance across all sectors and underlying revenue growth of 13%; double digit underlying growth delivered by Hobsons, Genscape and our property information businesses.
· dmg events performed as expected, with a strong underlying revenue increase of 23%.
· Euromoney Institutional Investor does not report its performance for the eleven months to August and will be releasing a pre close trading update on 30 September 2014.
dmg media
Revenue Growth v Prior Year 11 months to August 2014 | Reported | Underlying#
| ||||||
H1 | Q3 | July & August^ | YTD | H1 | Q3 | July & August^ | YTD | |
dmg media | -2% | -7% | -9% | -4% | +1% | -1% | -2% | +0% |
Advertising | +1% | -4% | -8% | -2% | +5% | +5% | +3% | +5% |
Circulation | -5% | -6% | -6% | -5% | -3% | -6% | -6% | -5% |
dmg media's year to date underlying# revenues are in line with last year with advertising growth offsetting the decline in circulation. Circulation revenues are down 5% due to lower sales volumes, although the Daily Mail and The Mail on Sunday reported increases in market share, reaching 22.2% and 21.0% respectively in August*.
Total year to date underlying# advertising revenues across dmg media are up 5%, with newspapers down 5%, newspaper companion websites (mainly MailOnline) up 47% and other digital advertising (Wowcher and Jobsite) up 20%.
MailOnline's digital advertising revenue growth of £17 million, up 49% to £53 million for the eleven months, exceeded the decline of £10 million (down 5%) in print advertising revenues to £172 million at the Daily Mail and The Mail on Sunday for the same period. Underlying# advertising revenues across the combined print and digital Mail businesses were consequently up 3%. MailOnline's global monthly unique browsers in August stood at 180 million, up 30% on last year, and average global daily unique browsers were 11.4 million, an increase of 26% on last year.
Within other digital advertising, Wowcher delivered a particularly strong performance with revenue growth of 77% and it now has a substantial database of 5.9 million subscribers.
For the three weeks since 24 August 2014, total underlying# advertising revenues are up 7% on last year.
Group
Portfolio management activity continued throughout the year. In October 2013 dmg information acquired DIIG(E), the UK based property information business which includes SearchFlow, for £75 million. Euromoney acquired trade and certain assets of the Mining Investment Events Division of Summit Professional Networks, including the Investing in African Mining Indaba brand, for £45 million in July 2014. In addition to these larger transactions, Euromoney acquired Infrastructure Journal; dmg events acquired Quartz Coatings Events; dmg information's energy business, Genscape, acquired Energytics; and dmg information acquired a majority stake in SiteCompli, the New York based provider of property compliance monitoring, reporting and alerting technology. Strategic investments during the year included dmg information's stakes in iProf, a provider of test preparation services to students in India, and Skymet, the Indian weather forecasting and agricultural risk solutions business.
The main disposals in the year have been dmg media's disposal of Evenbase, the digital recruitment businesses, and 39% of DMGT's then 52% holding in Zoopla Property Group (ZPG). On 8 September 2014, the Competition and Markets Authority approved the disposal of Jobsite and the transaction is expected to complete by the end of October 2014 at the latest. Following the IPO of ZPG in June 2014, DMGT's stake in ZPG is 32%.
Share buy back programmes and net debt
DMGT's November 2012 £100 million share buy back programme resumed in May 2014 and was completed on 4 September 2014. The Group acquired 14.1 million 'A' Ordinary Non-Voting shares, at an average cost of £7.09 per share, over the course of the programme.
DMGT's strong operational cash flow and disciplined portfolio management have resulted in the net debt to EBITDA ratio being expected to be comfortably below the Group's preferred level of around 2.0 times at the end of the current financial year.
The Board of DMGT remains confident in the overall outlook for the Group and believes that the creation of shareholder value over the long term requires a balanced approach to investing in growth and returning excess capital to shareholders whilst maintaining a strong balance sheet. Balanced against continued organic investment, the Group continues to look for attractive acquisitions while maintaining a dividend policy of growing dividends by between 5% and 7% in real terms over the economic cycle. In reviewing DMGT's capital management programme, the Board has decided to utilise part of its authority to make further on market purchases of the 'A' Ordinary Non-Voting shares and DMGT anticipates spending up to approximately £100 million on this new share buy back programme.
Full Year results guidance remains unchanged despite the headwinds of the stronger British pound relative to the US dollar. We expect our adjusted results to be in line with market expectations~.
For further information
For analyst and institutional enquiries: | |
Stephen Daintith, Finance Director | +44 20 3615 2902 |
Adam Webster, Head of Management Information and Investor Relations | +44 20 3615 2903 |
For media enquiries: | |
Kim Fletcher / Charlie Potter, Brunswick Group | +44 20 7404 5959 |
Conference call
A conference call will be held with City analysts at 8.00 am on 17 September 2014. The dial-in number is +44 (0)1452 589 509; conference code: 98799746. A replay of the call will be available on DMGT's website at www.dmgt.com.
Next trading update
DMGT's next scheduled announcement of financial information will be its preliminary results for the year ended 30 September 2014, which will be released on the morning of Wednesday 26 November 2014.
Investor Briefing
The Group will be holding an Investor Briefing for City analysts and investment institutions on 18 September 2014, including presentations on RMS, Euromoney and MailOnline. There will be no additional update on current trading at the Investor Briefing.
About DMGT
DMGT is an international business built on entrepreneurship and innovation. We bring together leading companies and talented people to provide businesses and consumers with high-quality analysis & insight, information, news and entertainment.
Notes
# Underlying revenue is revenue on a like-for-like basis, adjusted for constant exchange rates, disposals, closures,non-annual events occurring in the current and prior year and acquisitions. For dmg information, underlying growth includes the year-on-year organic growth from acquisitions. For dmg events, the comparisons are between events held in the year and the same events held the previous time other than ADIPEC, which became an annual event in November 2013 and which is compared to 50% of the revenues of the biennial November 2012 event. For Euromoney, no adjustments are made for the timing of events but acquisitions are excluded completely. For dmg media, underlying comparisons exclude contract printing revenue, which ceased last year, the central and eastern European businesses, which were disposed of last year, Villarenters, Metro Play, OilCareers, Broadbean and Jobrapido, which were disposed of this year, and distribution services revenue, which ceased earlier this year. The disposal of Jobsite, formerly part of dmg media's Evenbase business, is expected to complete by the end of October 2014 and Jobsite is still included in the underlying figures. Northcliffe Media is excluded from the DMGT Group underlying comparisons.
+ DMGT Group reported revenues include Northcliffe Media, which was disposed of at the end of December 2012, up to the date of its sale. Excluding Northcliffe Media, year to date DMGT Group reported revenues were up 4% on last year. DMGT Group growth rates include Euromoney.
~ Current City analyst expectations of adjusted profit before tax for 2014 range from £277 million to £304 million and adjusted earnings per share from 52.1 pence to 57.8 pence with a consensus of £286 million and 54.7 pence. Adjusted results are from continuing and discontinued operations and are stated before exceptional items, other gains and losses, impairment of goodwill and intangible assets, pension finance charges, premiums on bond redemptions and amortisation of intangible assets arising on business combinations.
∞ Current market expectations are that RMS's adjusted operating profit in the current financial year will be in the £45 million to £50 million range previously guided to.
^ References to July and August are to the eight weeks to 24 August 2014.
* Daily Mail's 22.2% compared to 22.0% last year and The Mail on Sunday's 21.0% compared to 20.9% last year. Circulation market share figures are calculated using ABC's August 2013 and August 2014 National Newspapers Reports and excluding digital subscribers.
The average £:$ exchange rate for the eleven months was £1:$1.66 (against £1:$1.56 in the same period last year). The rate as at 15 September 2014 was $1.63 compared to the 30 September 2013 year end rate of $1.62.
This trading update is prepared for and addressed only to the Company's shareholders as a whole and to no other person. The Company, its Directors, employees, agents and advisers accept and assume no liability to any person in respect of this trading update save as would arise under English law. Statements contained in this trading update are based on the knowledge and information available to the Group's Directors at the date it was prepared and therefore facts stated and views expressed may change after that date.
This document and any materials distributed in connection with it may include forward-looking statements, beliefs, opinions or statements concerning risks and uncertainties, including statements with respect to the Group's business, financial condition and results of operations. Those statements and statements which contain the words "anticipate", "believe", "intend", "estimate", "expect" and words of similar meaning, reflect the Group's Directors'beliefs and expectations and involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future and which may cause results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by those statements and forecasts. No representation is made that any of those statements or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecast results will be achieved. You are cautioned not to place any reliance on such statements or forecasts. Those forward-looking and other statements speak only as at the date of this trading update. The Groupundertakes no obligation to release any update of, or revisions to, any forward-looking statements, opinions (which are subject to change without notice) or any other information or statement contained in this trading update.Furthermore, past performance of the Group cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
No statement in this document is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this document should be interpreted to mean that earnings per DMGT share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per DMGT share.
Nothing in this document is intended to constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract, commitment or investment decision in relation thereto. This document does not constitute a recommendation regarding any securities.
Daily Mail and General Trust plc
Northcliffe House, 2 Derry Street,
London, W8 5TT
www.dmgt.com
Registered in England and Wales No. 184594
Related Shares:
DMGT.L