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Positive update to Blue Creek CPR

21st Jun 2012 07:00

RNS Number : 8482F
New World Oil & Gas
21 June 2012
 



New World Oil and Gas Plc / Index: AIM / Epic: NEW / Sector: Oil & Gas

21 June 2012

New World Oil and Gas Plc ('New World' or 'the Company')

Positive Update to Blue Creek Project CPR

 

New World Oil and Gas Plc, a company focussed on making investments in the oil and gas sector, has received a positive update to the Competent Person's Report ('CPR') from RPS Energy ('RPS') for the Blue Creek Project ('Blue Creek' or 'the Project'), located in the productive Petén Basin in Northwest Belize.

 

Key findings of the CPR:

 

·; Third potentially significant lead in the West Gallon Jug ('WGJ') area, identified in addition to two drill ready prospects, A and B Crest

·; Prospects A and B Crest are confirmed as seismic based and drillable with 1 in 5 Probability of Geologic Success - WGJ assigned 1 in 10.

·; Indicative volumetric outcomes provided two Prospects - 'B Crest' and 'A' and one Lead -'WGJC' are presented in Table 1

·; Indicative success case Net Present Values ('NPV10'), based on conceptual development scenarios, were reviewed by RPS and found to be reasonable in the event of success (see Table 2).

·; Expected Monetary Value ('EMV10') based on a conceptual development plan for each prospect/lead reported: 

o Prospect A: US $665 million

o Prospect B Crest: US $506 million

o Prospect/Lead WGJC: US $266 million

·; Indicative recoverable volumetric ranges reported for two prospects and the lead, modelled to comprise several potential stacked reservoir intervals within the Upper Cretaceous Yalbac Y1 and Y2 carbonate sequence (see Table 1)

·; Update follows the completion of Phase 3 of a 2-D seismic acquisition programme totalling 61 sq km

·; Seven sub-surface potential structural closures identified located in the Upper Cretaceous zone that produces oil in neighbouring licence areas: two classified as drill ready, three as prospects, and two as leads

·; Indicative success case NPV10 and EMVs have been calculated by Company to test economic viability in the event of success for two prospects and one lead - significant upside potential exists should the four additional structures prove to be robust

·; Seismic expression of all prospects identified to date continues to look very similar to the producing Spanish Lookout oil field to the south

 

 

Table 1: Indicative volumetric outcomes for A, B Crest and West Gallon Jug (Crest) lead (100% working interest basis)

 

Prospect/Lead

A

B Crest

WGJC

Interval

Category

MMBO

MMBO

MMBO

Y1

P90

39.2

29.2

35.8

P50

95.0

70.7

86.8

P10

188.5

140.3

172.0

Y2

P90

11.9

8.9

10.9

P50

28.8

21.4

26.3

P10

57.2

42.5

52.2

 

Table 2: Indicative success case economic outcomes based on conceptual development scenarios as worked up the Company

Prospect/Lead

Risk

NPV10 $

 

A

P90

1.293

P50

3.184

P10

4.386

 

B Crest

P90

1.015

P50

2.360

P10

4.386

 

West Gallon Jug Crest

P90

1.076

P50

2.593

P10

4.776

 

 

 

New World CEO William Kelleher said, "This CPR update confirms the Blue Creek Project in Belize, with indicative volumetrics and success case economic outcomes totalling 329 MMBO and an NPV10 of US$8.1bn (unrisked sum of individual P50 cases, representing three discoveries in multiple stacked reservoirs), has the potential to be world class. Although a slight adjustment of the P50 volumes has been made, greater confidence now exists as to the accuracy of what is being reported. Our multi-phase seismic programme, confirming the Probability of Geologic success of the two drillable prospects at 1 in 5, while also adding a lead, has exposed shareholders to the potential for significant returns - potential we are confident of unlocking by drilling later this year. The fourth and final phase of the seismic programme, covering the remainder of the blocks, is continuing and I look forward to updating our shareholders on the results of Phase 4 in due course."

 

The conclusions section of the Update to the CPR is reproduced in its entirety below:

 

"A further phase (Phase 3) of seismic acquisition has been completed during the first half of 2012, and New World has fulfilled its commitments to earn a 25% interest in the Blue Creek concession.

 

The results of the third phase of seismic are mixed. The previously identified prospect "A" has decreased in potential area as a result of the acquisition of the line BCE-12-1 though the Company notes that the quality of the data is not as good as the previously acquired Phase 1 and 2 data.

 

Data has been acquired over the West Gallon Jug area for the first time and a promising roll-over was identified on a north-south line (BCE-11-2). However, as a result of national border between Belize and Guatemala forming the western edge of the licence area, dip-lines could not be acquired of sufficient length to allow for proper stacking, fold and migration over the area of interest. The dip-lines do not show any roll-over in the east-west direction. Nonetheless, New Word believes the location of the north-south roll-over relative to an en echelon break in the dominant northeast-southwest fault direction expressed on the topographic map is encouraging, further supported by the regional dip which is down to the northwest.

 

The Company's volumetric and economic modelling suggests that the identified prospects ("B Crest" and "A") are likely to be commercially viable in the event of a discovery. RPS estimates the GPoS for the drill-ready prospects to be 1 in 5.

 

RPS has assigned a GPoS of approximately 1 in 10 to the West Gallon Jug lead and New World's economic modelling suggests a lower unit value per barrel but still commercially viable project in the event that a discovery of similar size is made in the area.

 

The current modelling predicts an unrisked Prospective Resources range (P90:P50:P10) for the 'B Crest' prospect of 38, 92 & 183 million barrels with an EMV10 of US$506MM.

 

For the 'A' prospect the unrisked Prospective Resources range (P90:P50:P10) is currently 48, 126 & 244 million barrels with an associated EMV10 of US$665MM. This represents a reduction since the second update and is a result of the Phase 3 line, BCE-12-1, shot to the north of the previous data which has reduced the mapped area of the prospect. All estimates of volume and value are likely to change when new data are acquired, in particular the drilling of one or more wells.

 

The "B Max", "C South" & "C North" leads/prospects have not been updated at this time but in the event of success they could represent significant upside."

 

The information contained in this announcement has been reviewed and approved by Andrew Kirchin on behalf of RPS. Mr. Kirchin has 24 years of relevant experience in the oil industry and is currently VP, Consulting (US), with RPS in Houston.

 

** ENDS **

 

For further information please visit www.nwoilgas.com or contact:

Enquiries:

William Kelleher

New World Oil and Gas Plc

Tel: +17134472171

Georges Sztyk

New World Oil and Gas Plc

Tel: +1514 961 2247

Peter Sztyk

New World Oil and Gas Plc

Tel: +19172157122

Felicity Geidt

Beaumont Cornish Limited

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7628 3396

Roland Cornish

Beaumont Cornish Limited

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7628 3396

Jerry Keen

Shore Capital

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7408 4090

Pascal Keane

Shore Capital

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7408 4090

Hugo de Salis

St Brides Media & Finance Ltd

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7236 1177

Lottie Brocklehurst

St Brides Media & Finance Ltd

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7236 1177

Frank Buhagiar

St Brides Media & Finance Ltd

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7236 1177

 

Notes

New World Oil and Gas Plc is focussed on making investments in the oil and gas sector, either by acquisition or by participation through Farm-Out. The Company targets late stage exploration or early production projects that, in the opinion of the Directors, are undervalued, underdeveloped or under-performing, located in basins with large proven reserves. New World is currently operating in Central America and Europe where New World has acquired two highly prospective projects via Farm-Out Agreements, although the Board is actively identifying exploitation opportunities in areas including Africa, South America and South East Asia.

Glossary:

"bn" means Billion.

"BCE" means Blue Creek Exploration.

"EMV" means Expected Monetary Value.

"EMV10" means Expected Monetary Value using an annual discount on cashflow of 10% per annum.

"en echelon" means structural features in rock that are closely spaced, parallel or subparallel, overlapping or step like that are oblique to the structural trend such as faults and tension fractures

"km" means kilometres.

"MMbbls" means Millions of Barrels (oil)

"NPV10" means Net Present Value using an annual discount on cashflow of 10% per annum.

"P90" means that there is at least a 90% probability that the quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. This is a measure of uncertainty not geological or commercial risk.

"P50" means that there is at least a 50% probability that the quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. This is a measure of uncertainty not geological or commercial risk.

"P10" means that there is at least a 10% probability that the quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. This is a measure of uncertainty not geological or commercial risk.

"PSA" means Production Sharing Agreement.

 

This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
 
END
 
 
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