25th Jun 2015 16:49
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| BH GLOBAL LIMITED MONTHLY SHAREHOLDER REPORT:MAY 2015
YOUR ATTENTION IS DRAWN TO THE DISCLAIMER AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT | |
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BH Global Limited Manager:Brevan Howard Capital Management LP ("BHCM") Administrator: Northern Trust International Fund Administration Services (Guernsey) Limited ("Northern Trust") Joint Corporate Brokers: J.P. Morgan Cazenove Canaccord Genuity Ltd. Listings: London Stock Exchange (Premium Listing) NASDAQ Dubai - USD Class (Secondary Listing) Bermuda Stock Exchange (Secondary Listing) | Overview: BH Global Limited ("BHG") is a closed-ended investment company, registered and incorporated in Guernsey on 25 February 2008 (Registration Number: 48555). Prior to 1 September 2014, BHG invested all its assets (net of short-term working capital) in Brevan Howard Global Opportunities Master Fund Limited ("BHGO"). With effect from 1 September 2014, BHG changed its investment policy to invest all its assets (net of short-term working capital) in Brevan Howard Multi-Strategy Master Fund Limited ("BHMS" or the "Fund") a company also managed by BHCM. BHG was admitted to the Official List of the UK Listing Authority and to trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange on 29 May 2008.
Total Assets: $672 mm1 1. As at 29 May 2015 by BHG's administrator, Northern Trust.
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Summary Information
| BH Global Limited NAV per share (as at 29 May 2015)
Source: BHMS NAV data is provided by the administrator of BHMS, International Fund Services (Ireland) Limited. BHG NAV and NAV per Share data is provided by BHG's administrator, Northern Trust. BHG NAV per Share % Monthly Change calculations are made by BHCM. BHG NAV data is unaudited and net of all investment management and performance fees and all other fees and expenses payable by BHG. NAV performance is provided for information purposes only. Shares in BHG do not necessarily trade at a price equal to the prevailing NAV per Share. * Performance is calculated from a base NAV per Share of 10 in each currency. The opening NAV in May 2008 was 9.9 (after deduction of the IPO costs borne by BHG). As at 29 May 2015. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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ASC 820 Asset Valuation Categorisation* | Brevan Howard Multi-Strategy Master Fund Limited Unaudited Estimates as at 29 May 2015
Source: BHCM * These estimates are unaudited and have been calculated by BHCM using the same methodology as that used in the most recent audited financial statements of the Fund. These estimates are subject to change. Level 1: This represents the level of assets in the portfolio which are priced using unadjusted quoted prices in active markets that are accessible at the measurement date for identical, unrestricted assets or liabilities. Level 2: This represents the level of assets in the portfolio which are priced using either (i) quoted prices that are identical or similar in markets that are not active or (ii) model-derived valuations for which all significant inputs are observable, either directly or indirectly in active markets. Level 3: This represents the level of assets in the portfolio which are priced or valued using inputs that are both significant to the fair value measurement and are not observable directly or indirectly in an active market. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Portfolio Update for BHG | The information in this section has been provided to BHG by BHCM. Monthly, quarterly and annual contribution (%) to the performance of BHG USD Shares (net of fees and expenses) by strategy group
Monthly, quarterly and annual figures are calculated by BHCM as at 29 May 2015, based on performance data for each period provided by BHG's administrator, Northern Trust. Figures rounded to two decimal places. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS Methodology and Definition of Monthly Contribution to Performance: Attribution is approximate and has been derived by allocating each underlying trader book to a single category. In cases where a trader book has activity in more than one category, the most relevant category has been selected. The above strategies are categorised as follows: "Macro": multi-asset global markets, mainly directional (for BHG, the majority of risk in this category is in rates) "Rates": developed interest rates markets "FX": global FX forwards and options "EMG": global emerging markets "Equity": global equity markets including indices and other derivatives "Commodity": liquid commodity futures and options "Credit": corporate and asset-backed indices, bonds and CDS "Systematic": rules-based futures trading "Discount Management": buyback activity for discount management purposes
BHG Underlying Investment Exposures as at 29 May 2015 (allocations subject to change):
Source: BHCM; figures rounded to one decimal place. Data may differ from those published for BHMS as BHG may hold cash for short-term working capital purposes. *DW Catalyst Offshore Fund, Ltd is a feeder fund to DW Catalyst Master Fund, Ltd. DW Catalyst Offshore Fund, Ltd also has the ability to make other investments. Prior 1 January 2015, DW Catalyst Master Fund, Ltd was named Brevan Howard Credit Catalysts Master Fund Limited. Exposures by asset class as at 29 May 2015 (exposures subject to change):
** Calculated using historical simulation based on a 1 day, 95% confidence interval. Source: BHCM; figures rounded to the nearest whole number. Data may differ from those published for BHMS as BHG may hold cash for short-term working capital purposes.
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Monthly Performance Review for BHG
| The information in this section has been provided to BHG by BHCM. BHG Monthly Commentary The NAV per share of BHG's USD shares appreciated by 1.03% and the NAV per share of BHG's GBP shares appreciated by 1.18% in May. Monthly Performance of BHMS Underlying Allocations
* The USD currency class of each fund is used as a proxy for the performance of each of the funds; BHMS also invests in the EUR, GBP and JPY classes of the funds . Source: Underlying data for the funds in which BHMS invests in is provided by their respective administrators, calculations by BHCM. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
Brevan Howard Master Fund Limited ("BHMF") The NAV per share of BHMF Class Z USD Shares appreciated by 1.37% (net of fees) in May. During the month, BHMF performance was driven primarily from gains in FX macro and EUR curve trading. To a lesser extent, EUR swap spreads and rates volatility trading also made positive contributions. There were small losses in USD curve trading, but not significant enough to impact the overall performance.
Brevan Howard Asia Master Fund Limited ("BHA") The NAV per share of BHA Ordinary USD Shares appreciated by 1.87% (net of fees) in May. In May, BHA made money in interest rate strategies and FX strategies. DW Catalyst Offshore Fund, Ltd ("DWC") The NAV per share of DWC Class G USD Shares appreciated by 0.12% (net of fees) in May. In May, small gains were generated in CMBS. These gains were partly offset by minor losses in corporate long/short credit trading and distressed positions. Other trading areas were broadly flat for the month. Brevan Howard Systematic Trading Master Fund Limited ("BHST") The NAV per share of BHST Class Z USD Shares appreciated by 0.47% (net of fees) in May. In May, BHST made gains in equity index futures, short-term interest rate futures, agricultural commodities and FX trading and recorded losses in all other sectors.
Direct Investment Portfolio ("DIP") The Direct Investment Portfolio appreciated by 2.69% in May. FX trading was the main positive contributor, in particular short exposures to EUR versus USD. Additional gains were generated in equity index trading where tactical long exposures to Japan and Europe generated profits. Credit and interest rates trading were broadly flat for the month.
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Manager's Market Review and Outlook
| The information in this section has been provided to BHG by BHCM. Market Commentary US The data turned around in May, putting the economy on a solid footing and the Federal Reserve on course to raise rates in September. A 280,000 increase in hiring in May brought the total number of jobs created so far this year to more than 1 million, erasing the worries about a substantial slowdown in the labour market from the one-month divot in March. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.5%, but that can be attributed to a jump in job seekers, which is a healthy sign that the labour market is pulling potential workers from the sidelines. Wages are gradually accelerating according to all of the key surveys. Average hourly earnings, which had been lagging, are moving up at a 2.9% annualised rate over the last three months. That's similar to the methodologically more reliable reads from the Employment Cost Index and compensation per hour. By some estimates, the economy is expected to reach full employment by the end of the year. Consumption spending had been weak coming into May. The weakness appeared to owe to harsh winter weather and an unexpectedly painful tax season in April. But, these legitimate reasons for lacklustre outlays were beginning to look like special pleading if the numbers didn't pick up soon. However, household spending regained its momentum in May. Motor vehicle sales were terrific, posting the biggest monthly selling pace of the last ten years. Core sales also impressed and were revised up noticeably in prior months' data. The revised pattern of spending now appears to better line up with the weather- and tax-related subtractions. Meanwhile, business investment is an area of concern. The downturn in drilling and mining is still being digested, and manufacturing is working through the competitive effects of a stronger US dollar. Similarly, trade is still a negative for growth, but the sharp subtractions seen in the first quarter looked to have been exaggerated by the West Coast ports strike. A bright spot for the outlook is housing. Housing had been quietly surprising on the upside, but the surprises are no longer so quiet. House prices are accelerating all across the country. On current trends, house prices are anticipated to surpass their prior peak sometime next year. New and existing home sales are increasing and new residential investment has bounced back from the winter as well. With affordability still attractive and credit availability ever so slowly broadening, the likelihood is that the housing sector has room to run. Putting the pieces together, real GDP appears to be growing around 3% so far in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve has been closely monitoring whether the negatives in the first quarter were ominous portents or transitory set-backs. The evidence suggests the latter interpretation going into the June FOMC meeting. With question marks still remaining about the strength of the expansion, there is no reason for the Fed to get in front of the data. The June meeting stuck to the messaging that policy makers expect the economy to be strong enough to raise rates sometime later this year. If growth and the labour market are back on track, then the September meeting would be a good bet for lift-off.
EMU In the first quarter of 2015, GDP growth was confirmed to have been relatively firm in the euro area, with a quarterly increase of 1.5% q/q annualised. While growth was robust in France and some peripheral countries such as Spain, it came out below expectations in Germany due to a severe contraction in the contribution of net trade. Looking forward, surveys data as well as the first indications stemming from hard data such as industrial production, car sales and retail sales, point at some loss of momentum in the second quarter. The recent renewed tightening of financial conditions, stemming from a rebound in oil prices, bond yields, the value of the EUR and a fall in equity prices will likely leave its mark on activity dynamics. At the same time, prices have started to recover from their lows recorded at the beginning of the year, with both headline and core annual measures increasing in May to 0.3% y/y, helped by higher oil prices and the timing of Easter holidays. Money supply growth continues to be boosted by effect of the ECB quantitative easing programme, showing further acceleration in April. The pace of credit expansion has also improved, but so far lag behind the improvement in the money supply. At its June meeting, the ECB kept largely unchanged its macroeconomic projections, apart from some short-term upward revisions stemming from energy prices. The ECB emphasized that the QE programme would continue as planned and be fully implemented until September 2016 and possibly continue after that if required. However, the comments by the ECB President Draghi on getting used to periods of higher volatility were not well received by the market, which saw bond yields continuing their rebound, especially in the periphery, more directly affected by the Greek crisis. The political situation in Greece continues to be extremely tense, with discussions and meetings between Greece and the institutions so far not able to strike a compromise deal. After Greece asked to bundle all its loan repayments due to the IMF in June into one payment, they now have to find a solution to get the financing they need before 30 June when that IMF payment will be due. A variety of Greek polls show the population of the indebted country continues to prefer a compromise deal rather than an exit of the monetary union. Although the market impact of Greek problems has remained quite muted in the first months of negotiations, the intensifying talks, the stronger stance of both sides as well as the little time left until the end of the bailout extension at the end of June has started to affect financial markets, with contagion through higher yields in peripheral countries. So far the Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras has ruled out the possibility of new elections. Latest observations suggest an intensification of the drain in Greece bank deposits, to levels close to the IMF definition of bank run.
UK Recent growth indicators have been mixed, with the PMI business surveys indicating ongoing moderation, but the housing market indicators gaining momentum. UK growth looks likely to transition from a strong pace in excess of 3% for a few quarters last year to a more moderate pace of 2-2.5% this year. Housing market indicators have clearly turned up since the early part of the year, with both activity and, to a lesser extent, prices, gaining momentum. The reduction in mortgage rates and the absence of further macro-prudential tightening appear to be the main drivers of this recovery. However, business surveys remain well below their recent peak, and even employment indicators, which had been strong last year, are showing some signs of moderation. A strong trade-weighted exchange rate will be a moderate headwind, as will subdued growth in the rest of the world. Heightened turmoil in Greece remains an important downside tail-risk even for the UK, via both confidence and financial contagion channels. Domestically, the main risk to growth stems from another round of fiscal austerity that is expected to start shortly. This next wave of austerity is likely to be front-loaded again within the Government's term of office. Wage inflation remains subdued. Strong actual and potential labour supply increases from immigration, increased participation of younger workers and longer participation of older workers are likely to keep wage growth low relative to the pre-crisis period. These forces are fundamentally changing the relationship between the unemployment rate, which is only half a point away from its pre-crisis level, and wage inflation. Inflation is expected to remain close to zero until late 2015, and by the end of the year it is still likely to be below 1%. Core inflation is subdued too, and the momentum in core inflation is still downward. Against a background of moderate but not booming growth, combined with weak inflationary pressure, there is no urgency at all for the Bank of England to hike rates. If anything, in the coming months, the BoE is more likely to become concerned about the persistent weakness of underlying inflationary pressures than about any risk of overheating. The housing market bears watching, though. Should the current housing recovery turn into a phase of overheating, further macro-prudential tightening is likely.
Japan The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left policy unchanged in its latest meeting and slightly upgraded its view on the economic recovery. Since then, the flow of news indicates that activity is improving. First-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.9% annualised rate, however an important element was the contribution from inventories as the drawdown in inventories in the first quarter was much less than in the fourth quarter. Fixed capital investment rose, while personal consumption moved up at the same moderate rate as in the fourth quarter. The Economy Watchers' survey slipped somewhat in May but remained at a solid level. In contrast, the Shoko-Chukin survey moved up in May, though it is still below the levels seen before the tax increase in April 2014. Industrial production appears to be trending up moderately from the low seen last summer. The range of inflation data suggest that Japan is not in any immediate danger of backsliding into deflation. The pace, however, is still away from the BoJ's 2% target. After being flat on balance over the second half of 2014 and into January, western-core inflation moved up 0.1% for three consecutive months through April. Core has been noisier and a bit weaker due to energy prices. Tokyo prices, which have trended weaker, also moved up 0.1% in May. Looking forward, some of the long-term fundamentals suggest a further improvement, but it would be premature to suggest 2% is in hand. Reports suggest that wages accelerated over the spring negotiations. The Cabinet Office's estimate of the output gap narrowed in the first quarter, given the first-quarter increase in GDP, but it is still off by -1.9%. The yen has depreciated about 5% against the US dollar in the past several weeks, and oil prices have come off of their low from mid-March. Each of those is expected to provide some near-term support. Inflation expectations in April reversed much of their winter downtick. Scanner-price data collected by the University of Tokyo also picked up and rose in May for the first time over a month since late 2011. While this data does not actually add much to CPI forecasts, it is directionally consistent with the view that the re-inflation project is back on track.
China In May, activity in China has still not yet shown clear signs of a turnaround. The PMIs produced by both Markit (HSBC) and the National Bureau of Statistics improved only marginally, and the synthetic HSBC Composite PMI fell further from 51.3 in April to 51.2 in May. Details of the surveys were mixed, with new orders rising but new export orders falling. Disinflationary pressures also intensified, and employment remained in contraction territory. Real activity indicators including industrial production, retail sales, fixed-asset investment softened further. Industrial production growth YTD stabilised at a low level of 6.2% y/y, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. CPI yearly inflation fell to 1.2% y/y in May, below the 1.3% consensus mostly due to falling food prices, while PPI remained in negative territory at -4.6% y/y, thus providing room for more policy easing. The trade surplus recorded another decent surplus of US$60bn in May, better than the expected figure of US$45bn. However, details of the report were not encouraging, as export growth remained weak and imports have continued to fall in both value and quantity terms on an annualised basis. The 7-day PBoC repo rate, after falling by nearly 300 bps to 2% in May, has recently bounced back to 2.7%. The A-share market, after rallying further above a 5000 level and thus approaching its historical high of 6000 in 2007, has recently pulled back. That said, without an acceleration in credit and investment, it is still questionable whether China could engineer a sustainable and strong recovery. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Enquiries | Northern Trust International Fund Administration Services (Guernsey) LimitedHarry Rouillard +44 (0) 1481 74 5315 |
Important Legal Information and Disclaimer
Brevan Howard Capital Management LP ("BHCM") has supplied certain information herein regarding BHG, BHMS and the funds which BHMS invests, or has invested, in (together the "Funds").
The material relating to the Funds included in this report is provided for information purposes only, does not constitute an invitation or offer to subscribe for or purchase shares in the Funds and is not intended to constitute "marketing" of the Funds as such term is understood for the purposes of the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive as it has been implemented in states of the European Economic Area. This material is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Information and opinions presented in this material relating to the Funds have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but none of the Funds or BHCM make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness. Any estimates may be subject to error and significant fluctuation, especially during periods of high market volatility or disruption. Any estimates should be taken as indicative values only and no reliance should be placed on them. Estimated results, performance or achievements may materially differ from any actual results, performance or achievements. Except as required by applicable law, the Funds and BHCM expressly disclaim any obligations to update or revise such estimates to reflect any change in expectations, new information, subsequent events or otherwise.
Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor in BHG and may be subject to change in the future. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.
You should note that, if you invest in BHG, your capital will be at risk and you may therefore lose some or all of any amount that you choose to invest. This material is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice. All investments are subject to risk. You are advised to seek expert legal, financial, tax and other professional advice before making any investment decisions.
THE VALUE OF INVESTMENTS CAN GO DOWN AS WELL AS UP. YOU MAY NOT GET BACK THE AMOUNT ORIGINALLY INVESTED AND YOU MAY LOSE ALL OF YOUR INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A RELIABLE INDICATOR OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Risk Factors
Acquiring shares in BHG may expose an investor to a significant risk of losing all of the amount invested. Any person who is in any doubt about investing in BHG (and therefore gaining exposure to BHMS and the investment funds in which BHMS invests (together with BHMS "the Underlying Funds")) should consult an authorised person specialising in advising on such investments. Any person acquiring shares in BHG must be able to bear the risks involved. These include the following:
• The Underlying Funds are speculative and involve substantial risk.
• The Underlying Funds will be leveraged and will engage in speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. The Underlying Funds may invest in illiquid securities.
• Past results of each Underlying Fund's investment manager(s) are not necessarily indicative of future performance of that Underlying Fund, and that Underlying Fund's performance may be volatile.
• An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment.
• An investment manager may have total investment and trading authority over an Underlying Fund and each Underlying Fund is dependent upon the services of its investment manager(s).
• Investments in the Underlying Funds are subject to restrictions on withdrawal or redemption and should be considered illiquid.
• The investment managers' incentive compensation, fees and expenses may offset an Underlying Fund's trading and investment profits.
• No Underlying Fund is required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors with respect to individual investments.
• The Underlying Funds are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds.
• A portion of the trades executed for the Underlying Funds may take place on foreign markets.
• The Underlying Funds are subject to conflicts of interest.
• Each Underlying Fund is dependent on the services of certain key personnel, and, were certain or all of them to become unavailable, an Underlying Fund may prematurely terminate.
• Each Underlying Fund's managers will receive performance-based compensation. Such compensation may give such managers an incentive to make riskier investments than they otherwise would.
• An Underlying Fund may make investments in securities of issuers in emerging markets. Investment in emerging markets involve particular risks, such as less strict market regulation, increased likelihood of severe inflation, unstable currencies, war, expropriation of property, limitations on foreign investments, increased market volatility, less favourable or unstable tax provisions, illiquid markets and social and political upheaval.
The above summary risk factors do not purport to be a complete description of the relevant risks of an investment in shares in BHG or the Underlying Funds and therefore reference should be made to publicly available documents and information.
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