16th Nov 2012 15:30
To: Company Announcements
Date: 16 November 2012
Company: AXA Property Trust Limited
Subject: Net Asset Value 30 September 2012
CORPORATE SUMMARY
- The Company's unaudited Consolidated Net Asset Value at 30 September 2012 was £58.55 million (58.55 pence per share), £60.02 million (60.02 pence per share) as at 30 June 2012), a decrease of £1.47 million;
- The Company and its subsidiaries made a loss after tax of -£1.46 million in the three month period to 30 September 2012;
- The Company remains in compliance with its loan obligations following the loan paydown on 25 July 2012, with a new loan balance of €60.56 million. The Company is continuing in its negotiations to extend the Agnadello loan expiring on 14 December 2012;
- The refurbishment works at Fuerth are now completed and the tenant Seats & Sofas has taken over the unit;
- Five assets have been introduced to the market for sale;
- The Company has suspended dividends from June 2012 for the short term in order to more prudently manage its cash and debt positions.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Country Allocation at 30 September 2012 (by value)
Country % of portfolio
Germany 69%
Italy 21%
Netherlands 5%
Belgium 5%
Sector Allocation at 30 September 2012 (by value)
Sector % of portfolio
Retail 68%
Industrial 20%
Leisure 12%
At Fuerth, Germany, the refurbishment works to implement the change of use of the unit to be occupied by Seats & Sofas have been completed on time and within budget. The tenant has now taken over the unit and is expected to commence trading in December 2012.
The marketing efforts to re-let the two vacant units are ongoing however the current difficult economic environment continues to affect potential occupiers' decision making ability.
At Dasing, Germany, the tenant DB Schenker has signed a lease extension on the 9,580m². The lease will now expire in March 2016.
At Kraichtal, Germany, existing tenant KIK has agreed and signed a five year lease extension taking it to March 2019. In return the tenant has been granted three months rent free.
Negotiations with the tenant Xerox at Venray, The Netherlands, are progressing. Following the submission of a lease extension proposal the tenant has made a counter-offer which is currently being considered.
Following the notarisation of the sale of the asset in Pankower Allee, Germany, the completion is expected to take place in the coming weeks. A further five assets have been introduced to the market for sale, four in Germany and one in Belgium.
MARKET UPDATE
Economic output hardly changed over Q1 2012 but fell in Q2 by 0.1% in the EU27. Q3 and Q4 are not expected to be any better, but positive growth is set to return to the European region in Q1 2013, marking the end of the double-dip recession. Germany remains amongst the strongest performers, growing by 0.3% and 0.2% in Q2 and Q3 respectively. Although French GDP grew by 0.2% in Q3, second quarter growth was revised downwards, to -0.1%.
Despite the deterioration in economic sentiment during 2012, our forecast for European growth is unchanged for the year, largely due to economic performance holding up better than expected in some markets. However, our forecasts for 2013 have fallen from 1.2% to 0.2% since Q1 2012, reflecting the poor growth rates we expect to see over the next six months in particular. Having again deferred the start of the economic recovery, this time to 2014, our forecasts for 2014 have also been reduced by 0.7% points for Europe to just 1.1%.
The European annual inflation rate peaked in October last year and has been on a slow trend decline since. Nevertheless, it was concerning that in the month of September alone, there were CPI rises of 0.6% in the EU27 and 0.7% in the eurozone. Energy cost pressures were the main cause, and higher global food prices (due to poor crops) will feed through in 2013.
At the prime end of the office market rental value growth at a European level was 1.7% over the year to September 2012, after a similar increase for the year to June, confirming the trend of stable annual growth rates after the post-recession peak of 3.4% over the year to June 2011. Despite a weak economic environment in Europe, office rental values have seen a better performance than expected in most European cities and we have therefore upgraded our 2012 forecast for Europe slightly. The Nordics and Germany will be the key drivers of growth whereas the southern European markets are likely to act as a drag on growth. A return to stronger rental value growth of 1.2% is anticipated in 2013 and 2014.
Weak consumer fundamentals continue to weigh upon European retail sales, which have shown little growth in the post-recession period. Whilst there is an indication that sales volumes are stabilising, this masks a divergence at a country level. For most countries with 'excess' debt or deficits, austerity programmes are being strengthened for 2013, providing a still-weaker retail environment - Spain, for example, remains in a consumption downturn that began in 2008, whilst Italy is in its second period of retail sales declines since 2007.
But despite this weak consumer backdrop, the prime end of the European market (particularly in the northern European markets) has maintained an annual rate of rental value growth of 2% to 3% in recent quarters. Whilst these rises may seem to be at variance with economic weakness, they reflect competition for the best units in a few favoured locations, targeted by a narrow subset of retailers. In that context, it is worth noting that our short-term forecasts are focussed on an abnormally narrow part of the market. We believe that the strongest rental growth will be in the Nordic markets, Austria and the UK - driven by London. At the other end of the spectrum, the southern European markets of Portugal, Spain and Italy are expected to see rental growth declines between 2012 and 2016 - even at the prime end of the market.
Most demand in the logistics market is still for the modern, better-located space, taking advantage of both the increased availability following the significant development volume prior to the recession and the relatively small rent differential to the poorer-quality space compared to the benefits in terms of business efficiency. But even at the prime end of the market, rental values have continued to fall. Indeed, the contrast with the other two main sectors could hardly be more stark - industrial property has shown virtually no growth in rental values since the pre-recession boom. Our expectation of a deferred, lower-growth economic recovery suggests a difficult logistics property market with low demand for space - prime rental values will continue to come under downward pressure in H2 2012 and 2013 with stronger falls for secondary. A more substantive recovery in tenant demand has been pushed out to 2014.
Investor demand is still substantially for prime assets mainly in London, Paris, the main five or six cities of Germany, and the Nordics, attracted by a combination of 'safe haven' status, high liquidity levels, income security and diversification benefits. The third quarter transaction volume was EUR25bn, and we expect transaction volumes for the year as a whole to be 10-20% below the levels observed in 2011, with volumes in Italy and Spain significantly below long-term averages.
CONSOLIDATED PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
Audited | Unaudited | ||
12 months ended | 3 months ended | ||
30 June 2012 | 30 September 2012 | Quarterly Movement | |
Pence per share | Pence per share | Pence per share /(%) | |
Net Asset Value per share | 60.02 | 58.55 | -1.47 (-2.5%) |
Earnings per share | -0.79 | -1.46 | n/a |
Dividend paid in the period | 0 | 0 | n/a |
Share price (mid market) | 31.75 | 28.63 | -3.12 (-9.8%) |
Share price discount to Net Asset Value | 47.10% | 51.10% | -4.0 percentage points |
Total return | Audited | Unaudited |
12 months ended | 3 months ended | |
30 June 2012 | 30 September 2012 | |
Net Asset Value Total Return | -16.4% | -2.4% |
Share Price Total Return | ||
- AXA Property Trust | -32.7% | -9.8% |
- FTSE All Share Index | -3.1% | 4.7% |
- FTSE Real Estate Investment Trust Index | -9.6% | 4.8% |
Source: Datastream; AXA Real Estate
Total net loss was -£1.46 million (-1.46 pence per share) for the three months to 30 September 2012, including £0.68 million of "revenue" profit (excluding capital items such as revaluation of property) and -£2.14 million "capital" loss analysed as follows:
Audited | Unaudited | |
12 months ended | 3 months ended | |
30 June 2012 | 30 September 2012 | |
£million | £million | |
Net property income | 10.02 | 2.21 |
Net foreign exchange losses/(gains) | 0.59 | (0.10) |
Investment Manager's fees | (1.20) | (0.27) |
Other income and expenses | (1.54) | (0.38) |
Net finance costs | (3.33) | (0.74) |
Current tax | (0.31) | (0.05) |
Revenue profit | 4.23 | 0.68 |
Unrealised losses on revaluation of investment properties | (3.17) | (0.84) |
Losses on disposal of investment properties | (0.33) | - |
Losses on derivatives (hedging interest rate and currency exposures) | (0.30) | (0.96) |
Finance costs | (1.05) | (0.37) |
Net foreign exchange losses | (0.16) | (0.02) |
Deferred tax | (0.01) | 0.04 |
Capital loss | (5.02) | (2.14) |
Total net loss | (0.79) | (1.46) |
NET ASSET VALUE
The Company's unaudited Consolidated Net Asset Value per share as at 30 September 2012 was 58.55 pence (60.02 pence as at 30 June 2012), a decrease of 1.47 pence.
The Net Asset Value attributable to the Ordinary Shares is calculated under International Financial Reporting Standards. It includes all current year income after the deduction of dividends paid prior to 30 September 2012.
The £1.47 million decrease in Net Asset Value over the quarter ended 30 September 2012 can be analysed as follows:
Audited | Unaudited | |
3 months ended | 3 months ended | |
30 June 2012 | 30 September 2012 | |
£million | £million | |
Opening Net Asset Value | 62.34 | 60.02 |
Net loss after tax | (0.01) | (1.46) |
Unrealised movement on derivatives | 0.64 | 0.69 |
Dividends paid | (0.75) | - |
Foreign exchange translation losses | (2.20) | (0.71) |
Closing Net Asset Value | 60.02 | 58.55 |
On a like-for-like basis (excluding the disposal of the Treuchtlingen asset), the Euro valuation of the property portfolio increased by 0.40% to €144.10 million for the quarter. In Sterling currency terms, the property valuation was £114.80 million (including the effects of valuation movements, capital expenditure and foreign exchange movements). The £/€ foreign exchange rate applied to the Company's Euro investments in its subsidiary companies at 30 September 2012 was 1.26 (30 June 2012: 1.24).
The Company's net property yield on current market valuation (after acquisition and operating costs) as at 30 September 2012 was 7.29% (7.25% as at 30 June 2012).
SHARE PRICE AND DISCOUNT TO NET ASSET VALUE
As at close of business on 30 September 2012, the mid market price of the Company's shares on the London Stock Exchange was 28.63 pence, representing a discount of 51.1% on the Company's Net Asset Value at 30 September 2012 and a 6.1% annual dividend yield based on dividends paid for the year to 30 September 2012.
As at close of business on 15 November 2012, the mid market price of the Company's shares was 28.50 pence, representing a discount of 51.3% on the Company's Net Asset Value at 30 September 2012 and a 6.1% annual dividend yield.
FUND GEARING
Audited | Unaudited | ||
30 June 2012 | 30 September 2012 | Movement | |
£million /% | £million /% | £million /% | |
Property portfolio * | 121.73 | 114.80 | -6.93 (-5.69%) |
Borrowings (net of capitalised issue costs) | 60.84 | 52.17 | -8.67 (-14.25%) |
Total gross gearing | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.6 percentage points |
Total net gearing | 46.0% | 43.6% | -2.4 percentage points |
*Portfolio value based on the Company's independent valuation
Fund gearing decreased by -4.6 percentage points over the quarter to 45.4% as at 30 September 2012.
Fund gearing is included to provide an indication of the overall indebtedness of the Company and does not relate to any covenant terms in the Company's loan facilities. Gross gearing is calculated as debt over property portfolio at fair value. Net gearing is calculated as debt less cash over property portfolio at fair value.
LOAN FACILITIES
Gross Loan to Value (LTV) Covenants | Audited | Unaudited | |
30 June 2012 | 30 September 2012 | Maximum | |
Main loan facility | 52.0%* | 46.35% | 60.00% |
Joint venture Property Trust Agnadello S.r.l. | 55.60% | 58.25% | 65.00% |
* The loan-to-value ratio at 30 June 2012 was calculated after applying the surplus proceeds
from the two realised asset sales in February 2012.
As per the Company's RNS released on 27 July 2012, the Company and its subsidiaries made prepayments of the main loan facility down to €60.56 million in July 2012, reducing LTV to 49.03% based on the lender's valuation, and bringing the loan into compliance with the 50% LTV covenant at 2 July 2012. The new LTV covenant is 60% from August 2012 to the end of the facility in July 2016.
The Company is continuing in its negotiations to extend the Agnadello loan expiring on 14 December 2012, and is agreeing principal terms with the lender.
Interest Cover Ratio at 30 September 2012 | Historic (Unaudited) | Minimum | Projected (Unaudited) | Minimum | Net rental income headroom |
Main loan facility covenant | 291.1% | 200.0% | 305.4% | 185.0% | 39.4% |
Joint venture Property Trust Agnadello S.r.l. | 347.1% | 125.0% | 532.0% | 125.0% | 75.3% |
Interest Cover Ratio (ICR) is calculated as net financing expense payable as a percentage of net rental income less movement in arrears. Net rental income headroom is based on projected interest cover.
CASH POSITION AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
The Company and its subsidiaries held total cash of £2.07 million (€1.65 million) at 30 September 2012. The anticipated capital expenditure over the next twelve months is £1.33 million.
MATERIAL EVENTS
Except for those noted above, the Board of the Company is not aware of any significant event or transaction which occurred between 30 September 2012 and the date of the publication of this Statement which would have a material impact on the financial position of the Company.
Company website:
http://www.axapropertytrust.com
All Enquiries:
Investment Manager
AXA Investment Managers UK Limited
Broker Services
7 Newgate Street
London EC1A 7NX
Tel: +44 (0)20 7003 2345Email: [email protected]
Broker
Oriel Securities Limited
Joe Winkley / Neil Winward
Tel: +44 (0)20 7710 7600
Company Secretary
Northern Trust International Fund Administration Services (Guernsey) Limited
Trafalgar Court
Les Banques
St Peter Port
GY1 3QL
Tel: +44 (0)1481 745604
Fax: +44 (0)1481 745085
Related Shares:
Worsley Inv Ltd