5th Feb 2013 07:00
5th February 2013
TalkTalk Telecom Group PLC
Interim Management Statement - Third Quarter FY 2012/13
·; 10,000 total net adds driven by strong growth in on-net customer base
·; 80,000 TV subscribers at 31st December 2012 with growing momentum in Q4
·; Continuing improvement in on-net churn to 1.5% (Q2 FY13: 1.6%)
·; Reiterating FY13 financial guidance and medium-term targets
Financial Highlights
·; On-net revenue up by 5.8% year on year to £292m; (Q3 FY12: £276m)
·; Corporate revenue up by 1.3% year on year to £80m; (Q3 FY12: £79m)
·; Total revenue down to £415m (Q3 FY12: £422m) driven by ongoing fall in off-net revenue
·; On-net ARPU up by 1.7% year on year to £25.47; (Q3 FY12: £25.05)
Operating Highlights
·; 69,000 fully unbundled net adds (Q2 FY13: +66,000)
·; c30% of TV subscribers new to TalkTalk with balance upsold from Essentials and Plus
·; 35,000 new mobile customers added, taking base to 152,000
·; 22,000 new fibre customers added, taking base to 52,000
·; 25% growth year on year in data products revenues at TalkTalk Business
·; Complaints to Ofcom down 48% year on year
Dido Harding, Chief Executive of TalkTalk commented:
"We have returned our total customer base to growth for the first time in three years - an important milestone on our journey to become a growing and more profitable business. We successfully launched TV and mobile handsets this summer and the growth in take-up by both existing and new customers underlines the scale of opportunity we see in these additional products. With good trading momentum across the business, we have entered the final quarter strongly focused on execution. We are confident of delivering full-year results in line with our guidance, and are making real progress towards our medium term targets of 2% revenue growth and 25% EBITDA margin."
There will be a conference call for analysts and investors starting at 8am
Call details:
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UK Toll Free: 0808 237 0030
Pin code: 29510818#
Webcast: http://www.talktalkgroup.com/investors/results-centre.aspx
Replay (available for 7 days):
UK & International: +44 (0) 20 3426 2807
UK Toll Free: 0808 237 0026
Pin code: 636295#
Analyst and investor enquiries | Media enquiries |
Mal Patel +44 (0)203 417 1037 | Mark Schmid +44 (0)75 1503 4676 |
Business Review
Customer base returned to growth for the first time in three years
The total broadband customer base increased by 10,000 during the quarter as our strong value-for-money credentials, improving customer service levels and growing product offer continued both to attract new customers and retain existing ones. We achieved this despite continuing delays in provisioning by BT Openreach.
We added 69,000 fully unbundled broadband and voice customers in the quarter, offset by the loss of 33,000 broadband-only customers, leading to net growth in our on-net base of 36,000. The off-net base continued to decline, albeit at the slowest rate in six quarters, with 26,000 fewer customers.
On-net customers now comprise 95% of our total base and the mix of customers has continued to improve, with over 80% (Q3 FY12: 73%) now fully unbundled and therefore delivering our most profitable revenues.
Our upsell propositions have shown strong momentum during the quarter:
80,000 TV subscribers connected and strong momentum in Q4
The successful launch of our TV proposition saw 80,000 subscribers connected in the first three months, with momentum strengthening as expected, through the current quarter. We have increased installation capacity to 10,000 per week as our engineering team has become more familiar with the process. Additionally, we have now begun to trial a self-install process for TV.
Whilst it is still too early to draw conclusions about the mix of TV customers and content take-up, we are highly encouraged by the initial trends and customer feedback*
·; 8 out of 10 TV customers use TalkTalk TV as their main TV service, rather than as a second box
·; Breadth of on-demand content, seven day catch-up and PVR functionality are amongst the most frequently cited features that customers value over their previous TV service
·; 7 out of 10 customers who upgraded from Phone and Broadband said they were more likely to stay with TalkTalk beyond their contract terms than they would have been before taking TV
*ICM Research, January 2013, 1,007 respondents
35,000 mobile customers added
Our base of mobile customers grew to 152,000 as we added 35,000 customers during the quarter, with our simple tariffs and compelling handset range driving strong demand. Contract handset customers comprised c50% of the mobile base at the end of the quarter.
22,000 fibre customers added
22,000 more customers chose to take fibre in the quarter (versus 15,000 in Q2), taking our base of fibre customers to 52,000.
As expected, overall fibre demand among our customer base remains modest. We expect this will continue until the customer benefits of much higher bandwidth become clearer. Nevertheless, there are certain segments of our customer base that can derive clear value today from upgrading to fibre, for example those who are interested in taking TV from us and live in a fibre-enabled area, but who currently do not receive sufficient speed to take our TV product.
We remain actively engaged with Ofcom and government to promote greater competition in fibre through a tighter regulatory framework.
Over 1.1m Plus customers
Our Plus product, which now includes TV, grew by a net 12,000 during the quarter, driven by take-up of our triple-play proposition by new customers, and those upgrading from Essentials, offset by dual-play churn. Including Plus phone and broadband customers, this base now stands at 1,109k.
Nearly 20% of on-net base has activated HomesafeTM
Our customers' growing demand for safe family-friendly internet usage has continued to drive activations of HomesafeTM, our unique network-level security feature. 730,000 customers had activated HomesafeTM by the end of Q3 - nearly 20% of the on-net base. Customers who have activated HomesafeTM value the benefits it delivers, and show a lower propensity to churn.
Further reduction in churn from 1.6% to 1.5%
We saw continuing improvement in churn through the quarter with on-net churn falling to 1.5% (Q2: 1.6%). Our ongoing focus on customer service improvement has continued to have a positive impact with reduced calls to our customer service centre and complaints to Ofcom. Call volumes were down 12% year on year and complaints to Ofcom fell by 48% year on year and by 6% over the previous quarter.
We expect churn to improve further in line with such customer service improvements, and as we see the benefit of more customers taking additional products from us.
Corporate boosted by 25% growth in Data services revenue
We saw growing demand in Data and Carrier services offsetting declines in legacy voice products. Data services revenue grew by 25% year on year and we installed 1,610 Ethernet and EFM lines leading to an installed base at the end of the quarter of over 8,600 lines.
TalkTalk Business ("TTB") continues to drive innovative and competitive product development that leverages our network capability. The reach and flexibility of our network continues to prove attractive to partners, as illustrated by our recent agreement with Virgin Media Business with whom we have entered into a 5 year contract worth over £40m to provide additional choice for its off-net Ethernet connectivity.
Financial Review
On-net revenue of £292m in the quarter was 5.8% higher year on year reflecting growth in the base, and ARPU growth. On-net ARPU of £25.47 was 1.7% higher year on year with unbundling mix, increased Plus penetration, and the benefit of line rental increases being partially offset by planned promotional spend and lower voice usage.
Q3 revenue in Corporate was modestly up year on year as continuing strong momentum in data services (+25% year on year) offset the underlying decline in legacy voice revenues.
Off-net revenue, which now represents just 10% of our total revenue, saw a 36% reduction year on year to £43m. This legacy base, comprising those customers that consume BT Wholesale products such as IPStream (broadband only), Narrowband, CPS and WLR (voice only) continues to reduce.
As a result, total revenue for the quarter declined by 1.7% year on year.
We have continued to make progress with Making TalkTalk Simpler, the next phase of our plan to simplify our operating model through completion of the consolidation of our outsourced IT providers, and the ongoing simplification of systems and processes in TalkTalk Business. As we indicated in our Interim results, these initiatives will deliver £10m of annualised cost savings, with approximately £3m of this falling in FY13.
Full year outlook
We are re-iterating the FY13 financial guidance set out with our Interim Results in November:
Revenue
Return to revenue growth in FY13.
Operating expenses
Broadly flat in FY13 with customer service improvements and back office simplification cost reductions offset by increased investment in network footprint and resilience.
Underlying EBITDA margin
Underlying EBITDA margin excluding investment in TV of 20%-21% in FY13, through continued ARPU growth and mix driven margin improvement.
One-off TV launch costs
We expect to incur £7-12m on the launch of TV in H2, comprising initial above the line marketing expenditure and promotional costs associated with launch.
Variable TV SAC
We expect the incremental SAC per triple play customer to be approximately £140, with total costs in H2 determined by the mix of engineer and self installations.
Cash flow items
We expect no material net exceptional cash expenditure in FY13. Our share of the settlement of the historic BES/Ethernet dispute was received during the quarter and is expected to offset the exceptional spend on our efficiency programmes (H1 FY13: £7m).
Capex is expected to be in line with our stated policy of c.6% of revenue, with no incremental expenditure arising from the launch of TV.
We do not currently anticipate any material adverse working capital movement from the launch of triple play.
Dividend
Full year dividend growth of a minimum of 15%.
Medium term outlook
At our preliminary results in May 2012 we set out new medium term targets of 2% CAGR in revenue and 25% EBITDA margin.
The key components of our revenue growth strategy are: an improving customer mix (from off-net to on-net; and from single and dual play to triple and quad play), continued progress in upsell (Essentials to Plus, mobile, fibre and other boosts), and growth in data products and services for our Corporate customers. We expect this revenue growth to contribute significantly to our profitability target.
Whilst some of this growth will require us to invest in SAC in the short term, for example as we build scale in TV and mobile, we expect the resulting lower churn to deliver material savings in SAC over the medium term. In addition, we expect other operating costs to benefit from our Making TalkTalk Simpler programmes, which we expect to deliver incremental savings over the next 3-5 years of £30m-£50m.
Quarterly Metrics
Q1 11/12 | Q2 11/12 | Q3 11/12 | Q4 11/12 | Q1 12/13 | Q2 12/13 | Q3 12/13 |
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KPIs |
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On-Net |
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Broadband & Voice | 2.827 | 2.910 | 2.966 | 3.066 | 3.096 | 3.162 | 3.231 |
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Broadband Only | 0.815 | 0.758 | 0.712 | 0.689 | 0.669 | 0.642 | 0.609 |
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Total On-net | 3.642 | 3.668 | 3.678 | 3.755 | 3.765 | 3.804 | 3.840 |
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Churn | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
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Unbundled | 87% | 89% | 90% | 92% | 93% | 94% | 95% |
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Fully Unbundled | 68% | 70% | 73% | 75% | 77% | 78% | 80% |
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Plus | 0.667 | 0.764 | 0.883 | 1.026 | 1.092 | 1.097 | 1.109 |
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Mobile | 0.027 | 0.038 | 0.045 | 0.061 | 0.085 | 0.117 | 0.152 |
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Homesafe | 0.054 | 0.149 | 0.228 | 0.320 | 0.440 | 0.518 | 0.730 |
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Fibre | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.015 | 0.030 | 0.052 |
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TV | 0.080 |
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Off-net |
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Broadband | 0.530 | 0.461 | 0.401 | 0.311 | 0.282 | 0.239 | 0.213 |
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Voice | 0.621 | 0.573 | 0.525 | 0.476 | 0.436 | 0.407 | 0.380 |
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Total Broadband | 4.172 | 4.129 | 4.079 | 4.066 | 4.047 | 4.043 | 4.053 |
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Revenue |
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On-net | 261 | 263 | 276 | 284 | 285 | 288 | 292 |
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Off-net | 85 | 77 | 67 | 58 | 49 | 46 | 43 |
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Corporate | 77 | 81 | 79 | 79 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
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Total | 423 | 421 | 422 | 421 | 414 | 414 | 415 |
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ARPU |
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On-net | 24.00 | 23.99 | 25.05 | 25.47 | 25.27 | 25.37 | 25.47 |
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Off-net | 23.41 | 23.49 | 22.79 | 22.57 | 21.71 | 22.48 | 23.13 |
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Exchanges |
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Unbundled in period | 30 | 171 | 130 | 170 | 83 | 104 | 22 |
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Total unbundled | 2,037 | 2,208 | 2,338 | 2,508 | 2,591 | 2,695 | 2,717 |
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