9th Nov 2024 12:10
(Alliance News) - The tariffs proposed by incoming US president Donald Trump could lower the UK's exports by GBP22 billion, an analysis published by the University of Sussex's Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy said Friday.
The results are based on a scenario where the US imposes a 20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China, without other countries retaliating, which will be hard to avoid but could make the numbers worse, the blog post published by Nicolo Tamberi, a research fellow in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School said.
In this scenario, UK exports are anticipated to reduce by GBP22 billion or 0.8% of gross domestic product, while UK imports would decline by GBP1.4 billion or 0.05% of GDP.
"The broad impacts, however, mask sector-specific variations, revealing how different industries respond to these tariffs," the post highlighted.
Industries hit the hardest by export contractions would be fishing with 22%, coke & refined petroleum products with 21% and mining with 20%. Meanwhile, chemicals, metals and electronics sectors could face drops of more than 10% in export values.
The sectors most affected by import reductions would be support services for mining, down 6.5%, followed by a 2.5% drop in utilities and a 2.3% fall in wood products.
The blog post noted that services are not directly subject to tariffs, but could experience adverse effects due to supply chain disruptions and overall economic shifts.
Therefore, UK exports of transportation services are anticipated to decline by 2.4%, while exports of financial and insurance services to the world could also contract by 2.4%.
By Tom Budszus, Alliance News slot editor
Comments and questions to [email protected]
Copyright 2024 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.