10th Feb 2016 16:20
LONDON (Alliance News) - Slowing growth in China, rather than an increasing use of renewable energy, will be the main driver of an expected slump in coal consumption over the next two decades, energy giant BP said on Wednesday.
Coal will account for less than 25% of primary energy by 2035, its lowest share since the industrial revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries, the company said in its BP Energy Outlook 2035.
"The continuing reform of China's economy towards a more sustainable pattern of growth causes growth in its energy demand to slow sharply - weighing most heavily on global coal, which grows at less than a fifth of the rate seen over the past 20 years," said Spencer Dale, BP's chief economist.
Despite recent volatility and plunging oil prices, BP expects strong growth in Asia to push steady expansion of energy demand by an average of 1.4% annually over the next 20 years, or 34% by 2035.
"The outlook for the next 20 years is for continuing growth of energy demand as the world economy expands and more energy is required to power higher levels of activity," Dale said.
Rising incomes, a doubling of GDP and population growth to 8.8 billion by 2035 will be the key drivers behind the growing demand for energy, the report said.
The slump in coal consumption will not shift fossil fuels from their dominant role in global energy production, with annual growth of 1.8% predicted for gas and 0.9% for oil, it said.
Global oil supply is expected to expand by nearly 19 million barrels per day (bpd), led by growth outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), particularly US shale oil.
OPEC is forecast to maintain its market share of around 40%, the report said.
On Wednesday, OPEC said it increased its total oil production by 131,000 bpd in January even though oversupply has been a major reason for falling oil prices.
The Vienna-based cartel of mostly Arab, African and Latin American countries said they pumped 32.3 million bpd last month.
This was 1.8 million bpd above the projected average demand for OPEC oil in the first quarter, the group's monthly oil market report showed.
Copyright dpa
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