17th Nov 2025 06:57
(Alliance News) - Stocks in London are set to open slightly lower on Monday, before the release of UK data later this week, and the end of a US data blackout after the government shutdown ended.
IG says futures indicate the FTSE 100 to open 11.0 points lower, 0.1%, at 9,687.37 on Monday. The index of London large-caps closed down 109.31 points, 1.1%, at 9,698.37 on Friday. For the week, it added 0.2%.
"Headline payrolls are set to have risen +50k, while headline unemployment is set to have held steady at 4.3%, though recall that the data won't tell us anything about how the government shutdown impacted the labour market, with that not having started until October 1. Still, a soft report will not only see participants up bets on a December rate cut once more, but also likely result in a fair few regional Fed Presidents eating a huge slice of humble pie, after hawkish remarks from most in recent weeks," Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown commented.
"Elsewhere, October's UK CPI figures should confirm that price pressures did indeed peak in September, paving the way for a 25bp Bank of England cut in December, especially after last week's dismal employment figures."
Sterling faded to USD1.3149 early Monday from USD1.3158 late Friday. The euro traded at USD1.1606, down from USD1.1617. Against the yen, the dollar bought JPY154.67, up from JPY154.58.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was at 4.14%, widening from 4.13%. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury was quoted at 4.74%, stretching slightly from 4.73%.
In New York on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7%, the S&P 500 closed down 0.1% but the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%.
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will reportedly freeze thresholds for an extra two years after abandoning her plans to hike income tax in the budget.
She could also bring in a new levy on high-value properties, in the measures to be announced on November 26.
The chancellor had been expected to raise income tax in the face of a gap in spending plans, hinting as recently as Monday that the alternative would be "deep cuts" to public investment.
Reeves is understood to have pivoted after improved forecasting from the Office for Budget Responsibility, but other tax rises have not been ruled out, such as limits to salary sacrifice schemes and new tax measures for electric vehicles.
There are reports that the chancellor will extend the freeze on income tax thresholds for two years until 2030, in a move that could raise some GBP8 billion a year for the UK treasury.
Reeves could also introduce a new levy on some of the most valuable homes, which would mainly affect properties in London and the South East, according to The Telegraph.
A Treasury spokesperson said: "We do not comment on speculation around changes to tax outside of fiscal events."
In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 was slightly lower. In China, the Shanghai Composite was down 0.4%, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong was 0.9% lower. In Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 ended up slightly.
Japan's economy contracted less than expected in the third quarter of 2025, preliminary estimates released by the Cabinet Office showed Monday.
Japan's seasonally adjusted gross domestic product contracted 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the three months through to September, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in the previous quarter.
China has advised its citizens not to travel to Japan until further notice amid an escalating diplomatic dispute over the status of Taiwan.
A statement released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Chinese embassy in Tokyo on Friday said Japanese politicians have "severely strained" the atmosphere for mutual exchange with "blatantly provocative statements about Taiwan" and "significantly endangered" the safety of Chinese citizens in Japan.
Several Chinese airlines, including Air China, announced that they would fully refund tickets for passengers opting to cancel their trip to Japan. The offer applies to flight tickets to Japan up to the end of the year.
The developments hit equities in Tokyo. Cosmetics company Shiseido shed 9.1%, while Uniqlo owner Fast Retailing fell 5.3%.
A barrel of Brent fell to USD63.70 on Monday, from USD64.57 at the time of the London equities close on Friday. Gold declined to USD4,068.21 an ounce, from USD4,101.80.
Monday's UK corporate calendar has half-year results from storage company Big Yellow Group.
By Eric Cunha, Alliance News news editor
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