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LONDON MARKET EARLY CALL: December Fed cut hope boosts sentiment

24th Nov 2025 06:56

(Alliance News) - Stocks in London are set to open higher on Monday with sentiment lifted by dovish remarks from a US central banker, while focus turns to the UK government's budget later this week.

IG says futures indicate the FTSE 100 to open up 48.0 points, 0.5%, at 9,587.71 on Monday. The index of London large-caps closed up 12.06, 0.1%, at 9,539.71 on Friday.

Sterling rose to USD1.3107 early Monday, from USD1.3084 at the time of the London equities close on Friday. The euro perked up to USD1.1525 from USD1.1501, while against the yen, the dollar faded slightly to JPY156.64 from JPY156.69.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was unmoved at 4.07%. The 30-year yield was similarly unmoved at 4.71%.

In New York on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.1%, the S&P 500 rose 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9%.

In China on Monday, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.2%, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong jumped 2.0%. The S&P/ASX 200 in Sydney rose 1.3%.

Financial markets are closed in Tokyo.

Sentiment was lifted by dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams.

"NY Fed President John Williams jumped in and poured some cold water on the overheated market by bringing the possibility of another near-term cut back to the table. Everyone heard that as a December rate cut, of course. The US 2-year yield fell back to 3.50% and the probability of a December cut jumped to 70% — from below 29% earlier in the same week," Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya commented.

"The nerves are calmer this morning, but not fully so. Japanese markets are closed, so we can't look at SoftBank to gauge how investors feel about the whole AI situation. At this point, it's safe to say that AI will outlive any potential market meltdown. But the short term looks a bit fragile for our favourite tech bros."

The trading week in the US will be shortened. Financial markets in New York are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and only reopen for an abbreviated day on Friday.

In the UK, focus turns to the budget, which will be delivered on Wednesday.

Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown commented: "We had 3 UK data releases on Friday, and all 3 were worse than expected – retail sales fell in October for the first time since May, the YTD deficit in October stood at its second highest on record after 2020, and November's 'flash' services PMI print fell to a 7-month low. What a cracking backdrop against which Chancellor Reeves will deliver the budget this week."

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has pledged to "grip the cost of living" in her budget next week.

In an example of one move aiming to ease the pressure on people's finances, rail fares are to be frozen for the first time in 30 years, saving commuters on more expensive routes more than GBP300 a year.

But at the same time Reeves is widely expected to raise taxes on November 26 in an effort to bridge a multibillion-pound gap in her spending plans.

Writing in The Mirror, the chancellor acknowledged that high prices "hit ordinary families most" and that the economy "feels stuck" for too many.

"That's why in my budget on Wednesday I will take action to grip the cost of living," she said.

Keeping national insurance and income tax thresholds frozen for two further years until April 2030 would raise around GBP8.3 billion a year by 2029–30, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Reeves is also expected to scrap the two-child benefit cap, in a move that could cost more than GBP3 billion.

She is set to add GBP1.3 billion to a grant cutting upfront costs for buyers of electric cars, but is also expected to hit them with a pay-per-mile scheme. And some GBP48 million for 350 new planners to boost government efforts to build 1.5 million new homes is reportedly to come.

A barrel of Brent rose to USD62.71 early Monday, from USD62.15 at the time of the London equities close on Friday. Gold fell to USD4,055.01 an ounce from USD4,073.57.

Monday's global economic calendar has the Ifo business climate report in Germany and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index in the US.

By Eric Cunha, Alliance News news editor

Comments and questions to [email protected]

Copyright 2025 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

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