11th Dec 2024 07:45
(Alliance News) - The FTSE 100 is called to open lower on Wednesday, ahead of a US consumer price inflation, which lands a week before the Federal Reserve's final rate call of the year.
The US central bank has recently become increasingly focused on labour market developments. Nonetheless, Wednesday's inflation data is the final major release before the Fed decision on December 18.
Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke commented: "Today's inflation data for November will be the last data point before next week's FOMC meeting. Since the blackout period has already begun, we will not be hearing any further comments from FOMC members. The interpretation of today's data is therefore left to the individual.
"It should be noted that in recent months, the monthly rates of change in US core inflation were actually a bit too strong to be consistent with the 2% inflation target (as measured by the PCE index, which is the relevant measure for the Fed). In November, core inflation could rise a little more moderately month-on-month, paving the way for a rate cut in December, even though the 0.23% our economists are expecting is still a little too high. If the data are in line with expectations, though, not much should change in terms of interest rate expectations."
The analyst continued: "However, if the data surprises on the upside, the doubts of the market, which is not fully pricing in the cut next week anyway, would increase and the dollar could see another boost."
In early UK corporate news, tobacco firm BAT backed its outlook. Volution said it has made a solid start to its financial year, helped by strong trade in the UK residential-focused segment. Elsewhere, Kainos re-appointed its long-time chief executive officer.
Here is what you need to know at the London market open:
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MARKETS
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FTSE 100: called down 0.5% at 8,240.46
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Hang Seng: down 1.0% at 20,118.43
Nikkei 225: flat at 39,372.23
S&P/ASX 200: down 0.5% at 8,353.60
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DJIA: closed down 154.10 points, 0.4%, at 44,247.83
S&P 500: closed down 0.3% at 6,034.91
Nasdaq Composite: closed down 0.3% at 19,687.24
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EUR: largely flat at USD1.0506 (USD1.0507)
GBP: largely flat at USD1.2750 (USD1.2748)
USD: lower at JPY151.50 (JPY152.02)
GOLD: higher at USD2,691.85 per ounce (USD2,690.00)
(Brent): lower at USD72.38 a barrel (USD72.65)
(changes since previous London equities close)
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ECONOMICS
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Wednesday's key economic events still to come:
13:30 GMT US CPI
15:30 GMT US EIA crude oil stocks
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The UK government is expected to set out a definition of "grey belt" land later this week as Labour aims to ramp up plans to build more homes. The prime minister last week vowed to face down "nimbys" to achieve plans to build 1.5 million homes and make 150 planning decisions on major infrastructure projects. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner wants to speed up planning applications, with some potentially avoiding scrutiny by local councillors if they meet certain rules. She is expected to confirm sweeping changes to the national planning policy framework – the document which sets out national priorities for building – following a consultation. This is expected to see increased housing targets which will be mandatory for the first time, with the aim of reaching the government's pledge to build 1.5 million homes this Parliament. It will also set out a definition of grey belt land that will be included in the framework. The consultation sets out the government's position that the default answer to brownfield development should be "yes". But it also notes that "brownfield development alone will not be enough to meet our housing need". It adds: "To deliver the homes and commercial development this country needs, we are proposing the targeted release of grey belt land." The so-called grey belt has been described as low-quality areas of protected green belt land – such as disused car parks and wasteland.
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The Stormont Assembly has voted to extend post-Brexit trading arrangements for Northern Ireland for another four years. The vote to continue with the contentious arrangements passed on a straight majority basis after a lengthy and at times ill-tempered and fractious debate at Parliament Buildings, with 48 MLAs voting in favour and 36 voting against. The debate and vote were required under the democratic consent mechanism in the UK and EU's Windsor framework deal and were designed to give local elected representatives a say on the trade rules that now operate in the region. The framework, and its predecessor the NI protocol, require checks and customs paperwork on goods moving from Great Britain into Northern Ireland. Under the arrangements, which were designed to ensure no hardening of the Irish land border post-Brexit, Northern Ireland continues to follow many EU trade and customs rules. This has proved highly controversial, with unionists arguing the system threatens Northern Ireland's place in the UK. Unionist MLAs voted against continuing the arrangements on Tuesday evening, but they were outnumbered by members of Sinn Fein, the Alliance Party and the SDLP who all voted in favour of an extension. The three parties all argued the framework serves to protect Northern Ireland from negative economic consequences of Brexit.
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The leader of Ireland's Labour Party has held talks with the taoiseach and tanaiste as efforts to form a new coalition government intensify. Ivana Bacik had separate meetings with Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris on Tuesday afternoon. Fianna Fail, which won 48 seats in last month's general election, and Fine Gael, which secured 38 seats, headed up the last coalition in Dublin and are expected to continue that partnership into the next mandate. However, with a combined 86 seats, they are just short of the 88 required for a majority in the Dail parliament. If they wish to return to government together, they would need one smaller party as a junior partner, or a handful of independents. Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have ruled out doing business with Sinn Fein, which won 39 seats. The centre-left Social Democrats and Irish Labour Party, both of which won 11 seats in the election, are seen as the only two realistic options if Fianna Fail and Fine Gael seek to convince a smaller party to join the coalition. In a statement, the Labour Party said Bacik outlined key policy priorities in her meetings with Taoiseach Harris and Tanaiste Martin. "There was discussion in both meetings on policies and manifesto commitments on housing, health, climate, workers' rights and disability services among other issues," said the statement. "The parliamentary party will meet at 1pm on Friday where the party leader will provide an assessment of engagement to date and consider the outcome of these meetings." A spokesman for Harris said there had been a "constructive engagement" with Bacik.
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BROKER RATING CHANGES
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Goldman Sachs cuts Ashtead Group to 'neutral' (buy) - price target 6,600 (7,350) - pence
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HSBC raises Reckitt to 'buy' - price target 5,550 pence
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COMPANIES - FTSE 100
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British American Tobacco said it is on track to deliver against annual guidance, amid a "sound" showing in the second half. In a trading statement, the tobacco company said it expects to report the second-half revenue outturn at its New Category and Combustibles segment will be better than the first. "We are on track to deliver our 2024 guidance, demonstrating the strength and resilience of our business. Our second-half performance acceleration is driven by the phasing of New Categories innovation, the benefits of investment in US commercial actions and the unwind of wholesaler inventory movements," Chief Executive Tadeu Marroco said. "In the US, I am encouraged that our investment approach, taken over the last 18 months to strengthen our business, is working, despite a challenging macro-economic backdrop. Through our commercial actions, we have invested in our portfolio and improved our executional capabilities. With these previously announced plans now completed, we can prioritise driving sharper execution and opening incremental white space, related to Modern Oral." Modern Oral products are nicotine pouches, such as snus, placed under the lip. For 2024, the firm expects "Low-single figure organic constant currency revenue growth" and "low-single figure organic adjusted profit from operations growth". Marroco added: "As previously highlighted, we do not expect the journey to our mid-term guidance to be linear. Building on the strong foundations we have established, I am confident that we will deliver an improved underlying performance as we move from investment to deployment in 2025."
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COMPANIES - FTSE 250
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Volution Group reported a "positive start" to its new financial year, as the maker of energy efficient indoor air quality solutions enjoyed a strong performance in its UK residential-focused offering. Revenue in the four months to November 30 was up 1.3% on-year to around GBP123 million. Organic growth at constant currency was 2.5%, it said, adding that there "was no inorganic growth in the period". "The group adjusted operating margin has again improved compared to FY 2024, underpinned by our operational excellence programme, the introduction of new products to the market and our ongoing focus on value engineering and input cost initiatives. Free cash flow has remained consistent driven by good trading and continued focus on working capital," Volution added. "Similar to the prior financial year, revenue performance has been strongest in UK residential, where our product solutions introduced over recent years to address the 2021 building regulations continue to gain share with housebuilder customers." It added that revenue improved in Continental Europe and the year has "started well" in Australia. However, the New Zealand market "remains challenging and trading activity levels have been weak". Volution said: "With positive organic growth momentum and margin expansion in the first four months of the year, together with the recently announced completion of the Fantech acquisition, we expect to deliver another year of good growth in both revenue and operating profit." Volution sealed the buy of Fantech Group earlier this month, a "significant acquisition in Australasia".
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IT firm Kainos re-appointed Brendan Mooney as its chief executive officer, just over a year after he stepped down from the position. Mooney replaces Russell Sloan in the post, who leaves the Workday partner with "immediate effect". Mooney has worked for Kainos since 1989 and was CEO for more than two decades before he left the position in September of last year. Chair Rosaleen Blair said: "We are delighted to welcome Brendan back to the role of CEO. Having overseen a hugely successful period of growth for Kainos, he needs very little introduction to anyone connected with the group. Brendan's knowledge of the group, its challenges and opportunities is unsurpassed and we look forward to a clear focus on a return to growth. I would also like to thank Russell for the enormous contribution that he has made to Kainos in his 25 years with the group. He played a key role in the development of Kainos. In his time with the business, it went from a small private company to an international business operating in over 20 countries. He leaves with our gratitude and respect and we wish him every success in the future."
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SSP Group on Tuesday announced the initial public offering in India of its joint-venture Travel Food Services. SSP Group is an operator of food outlets at travel locations including Upper Crust. It owns a 49% interest in TFS, which it operates as a joint venture alongside K Hospitality Corp. In 2016, SSP acquired its stake in the airport quick service restaurant and lounge operator for GBP57.9 million. The Kapur Family Trust, the shareholding entity of K Hospitality Corp, will be the selling shareholder in the IPO. SSP Chief Executive Officer Patrick Coveney commented: "India is an attractive and strategically important market for SSP, aligned to our prioritisation of high growth geographies with the greatest long-term returns opportunities. Since 2016, through our joint venture partnership with K Hospitality Corp for Travel Food Services we have built a successful Indian platform. SSP said a Draft Red Herring Prospectus, the first public document in the Indian listing process, has been filed with the Bombay Stock Exchange. It expects pricing and completion of the IPO in Spring 2025.
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OTHER COMPANIES
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Cohort left its annual outlook unchanged and reported a record half-year. The technology company, behind firms which serve customers in defence, security and related markets, said it enjoyed a "much stronger performance in the first half". Pretax profit in the six months to October 31 more than doubled on-year to GBP8.5 million from GBP3.7 million. Revenue improved by a quarter to GBP118.2 million from GBP94.3 million. Adjusted operating profit surged 69% to GBP10.1 million from GBP6.0 million, Cohort said. It added that revenue and adjusted operating profit topped "recent guidance". "Cohort delivered a much stronger performance in the first half compared to the same period last year, with growth in both revenue and adjusted operating profit. Continued strong order intake has driven a record closing order book which underpins most of the second half of this financial year. In line with previous experience we anticipate a stronger performance in the second half and we remain on track to achieve our expectations for the full year," Chair Nick Prest said. Cohort upped its interim dividend by 10% to 5.25 pence per share from 4.70p. Looking ahead, it expects a "stronger group performance in the second half". AIM-listed Cohort has headquarters in Berkshire and it has operating sites in the UK, Germany and Portugal.
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Zara owner Inditex reported its autumn/winter lines have been "well-received" as it posted improved earnings so far in its financial year. Over the nine months to October 31, revenue is up 6.2% to EUR27.42 billion from EUR25.61 billion a year prior, helping to pish net income up 8.4% to EUR4.46 billion from EUR4.11 billion. "Inditex continued with a very robust operating performance due to the creativity of the teams and the strong execution of the fully integrated store and online business model," it said.
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By Eric Cunha, Alliance News news editor
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