17th Feb 2025 07:49
(Alliance News) - London's FTSE 100 is called to open flat, following Friday's decline, with geopolitics and US tariff threats in focus.
The FTSE 100 fell 0.4% on Friday, but did climb 0.4% for the whole of the week. The CAC 40 in Paris is called up 0.1%, and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt 0.3% higher.
On Monday, financial markets in New York are closed, potentially removing some impetus from trade.
"The geopolitical chessboard is shifting fast. Trump's camp is moving aggressively on a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, with high-level US and Russian officials reportedly set to meet in Saudi Arabia this week. The idea of an endgame for the war is sending ripples across markets—particularly in oil and European risk assets—but let's not kid ourselves: Ukraine and the EU will demand their seat at the table. If this turns into a backroom deal that sidelines Kyiv, expect diplomatic fireworks," SPI Asset Management analyst Stephen Innes commented.
"This isn't just a busy trading day—it's a battlefield of shifting narratives. A strong yen on the back of BoJ hawkishness, a trade war on hold but looming large, peace talks with more questions than answers, and a widening ideological chasm between the US and Europe. The market is playing it cool for now, but beneath the surface, volatility is brewing."
In early UK corporate news, Anglo American said it has made progress with the demerger of its platinum arm, which is set to occur in June.
Here is what you need to know at the London market open:
----------
MARKETS
----------
FTSE 100: called up just 1.3 points at 8,733.76
----------
Hang Seng: down 0.1% at 22,594.86
Nikkei 225: up 0.1% at 39,174.25
S&P/ASX 200: down 0.2% at 8,537.10
----------
DJIA: closed down 165.35 points, 0.4%, at 44,546.08
S&P 500: closed down 0.44 of a point at 6,114.63
Nasdaq Composite: closed up 81.13 points, 0.4%, at 20,026.77
----------
EUR: lower at USD1.0488 (USD1.0505)
GBP: lower at USD1.2587 (USD1.2612)
USD: lower at JPY151.70 (JPY152.06)
GOLD: higher at USD2,899.71 per ounce (USD2,893.73)
(Brent): lower at USD74.58 a barrel (USD74.75)
(changes since previous London equities close)
----------
ECONOMICS
----------
Monday's key economic events still to come:
10:00 GMT eurozone trade balance
11:00 GMT Ireland trade balance
US Washington's Birthday. Financial markets closed.
----------
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was ready to send troops to Ukraine if it was needed to ensure the security of Britain and Europe. The UK was playing a leading role in supporting Kyiv in the war against Russia which "also means being ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary," Starmer wrote in the Daily Telegraph. "I do not say that lightly," Starmer added, saying he felt "very deeply the responsibility that comes with potentially putting British servicemen and women in harm's way. "But any role in helping to guarantee Ukraine's security is helping to guarantee the security of our continent, and the security of this country." Starmer confirmed he would join a top-level meeting to be held in Paris on Monday to address growing concerns over US efforts to end the war in Ukraine. He also said that he would be meeting US President Donald Trump "in the coming days", adding the UK had "a unique role" to play in ensuring Europe and the US work closely together. "US support will remain critical and a US security guarantee is essential for a lasting peace, because only the US can deter Putin from attacking again," Starmer said, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The heads of government of Germany, the UK, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark are all expected at the meeting ahead of the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24. European countries fear that if Ukraine is forced into a bad deal by Washington then that will leave Putin claiming victory and the continent at the mercy of an emboldened Moscow.
----------
The average price growth for property coming to market for sale slowed in January, data published by property portal Rightmove showed. Average new property prices were up 0.5% on-year in January, or GBP1,805, to GBP367,994. This was a "muted" price hike for this time of year, Rightmove noted, as the number of homes available for sale is now at a ten-year high as the New Year price surge begins to moderate. The upcoming stamp duty deadline has also been spurring buyer activity, as the threshold for stamp duty payments is due to be lowered to GBP125,000 from GBP250,000 by April 1. "New sellers are showing some pricing restraint after a fast start to the year, being mindful of both the high level of seller competition, and in England also of the looming stamp duty deadline and extra costs for some buyers," said Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove. "Agents report that some of the steam is coming out of new sellers' price expectations to fit the changing market conditions, which is a sensible reaction to attract buyer interest, and it will also help to support activity levels." "The upcoming stamp duty deadline in England remains a key talking point, and while some movers may not be affected at all, others will be more severely impacted...With the predicted conveyancing log-jam likely to cause some buyers to miss the deadline and end up paying more tax through no fault of their own, it would seem justifiable for the government to announce a short extension before the end of March."
----------
The growth rate in the value of UK mortgage lending is set to double in 2025, following two years of little-to-no increases, according to a forecast. Falling interest rates and rising consumer confidence will boost housing market activity, the EY ITEM Club "outlook for financial services" suggests. UK mortgage lending growth is forecast to increase from 1.5% net in 2024 to 3.1% net in 2025. But with rising house prices and high mortgage rates persisting, mortgage lending growth is expected to be steady after this year, with net growth forecast at 3.2% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. Martina Keane, EY UK & Ireland financial services leader, said: "The UK's gradual economic recovery is strengthening confidence and translating into more appetite to borrow from UK banks. "Looking to the year ahead, if interest rates are cut further as expected, borrowing costs should fall, the capacity for household spending will grow, and stronger levels of mortgage borrowing should return after two years of little-to-no growth. "However, optimism must remain measured. We begin 2025 facing heightened geopolitical tensions and a sense of uncertainty around the impact of upcoming UK tax rises, presenting a very real downside risk to market confidence and the overall outlook for lending growth." The EY ITEM Club forecasts write-off rates on UK mortgages will decrease to 0.001% in 2025, from 0.004% in 2024, as borrowing rates fall, before rising slightly to 0.002% in 2026 and 2027.
----------
European leaders are gathering for an emergency summit to discuss plans by US President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine amid fears they will be frozen out of the negotiations. The goal is to agree on a common strategy for dealing with Trump, including what offers can be made to him and what Europe's red lines are when it comes to Moscow's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Leaders from Germany, Britain, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark are expected to attend the meeting in Paris, alongside European Council President Antonio Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, the Elysee Palace said. French President Emmanuel Macron set up the meeting to initiate consultations on the situation in Ukraine and the challenges for security in Europe, the statement said, adding that the process could continue in other formats. The meeting was organized at short notice during the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. Diplomats have said the question of what Europe can contribute to a possible peace deal will also be discussed in Paris, after the US called on Europeans to contribute more.
----------
BROKER RATING CHANGES
----------
Peel Hunt raises Ferrexpo to 'buy' (hold) - price target 120 (61)
----------
JPMorgan raises Kingspan to 'neutral' (underweight) - price target 69 (65) - EUR
----------
COMPANIES - FTSE 100
----------
Anglo American said it has made "significant progress" towards the demerger of its Johannesburg-listed platinum division. The miner said it is on a "clear timeline" towards a June demerger of Anglo American Platinum. It will retain a stake of just under 20%, with Amplats having a Johannesburg primary listing and an additional London listing. "Consistent with our commitment to deliver a responsible demerger, Anglo American intends to retain a 19.9% shareholding in Anglo American Platinum in order to further help manage flowback by reducing the absolute size of the shareholding that will be demerged. Anglo American will no longer have any representation on the Anglo American Platinum board post demerger and we intend to exit our residual shareholding responsibly over time," Anglo American Chief Executive Duncan Wanblad said. It will seek shareholder approval for the demerger at an April 30 annual general meeting. Amplats on Monday declared a ZAR3 per share final dividend, and a ZAR59 per share "additional cash dividend". Anglo American noted this totals around USD900 million. With a stake of around 67%, Anglo American stands to receive USD600 million from those dividends.
----------
GSK said the US Food & Drug Administration has approved the Penmenvy jab for those aged between 10 and 25. It is a "five-in-one" jab, which targets "major serogroups of Neisseria meningitidis". Neisseria meningitidis can cause meningitis and other types of meningococcal disease. "The regulatory application was supported by positive results from two phase III trials, which evaluated the vaccine's safety, tolerability, and immune response in over 4,800 participants aged 10-25 years. The safety data demonstrated that the vaccine has a safety profile consistent with GSK's licensed meningococcal vaccines," GSKS said. "At its meeting on February 26, 2025, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is expected to vote on recommendations for the appropriate use of GSK's MenABCWY vaccine in adolescents and young adults."
----------
Entain's former chair and chief executive have filed suit against the gambling firm, the Financial Times reported. Former chief executive Kenny Alexander and one-time non-executive chair Lee Feldman are suing the Ladbrokes owner, as well as law firm Addleshaw Goddard, the FT reported, citing court records. AG had advised Entain on a prosecution deal related to the gambling firm's former Turkish unit, the FT noted. In 2023, Entain agreed a GBP585 million settlement with HM Revenue & Customs to resolve an investigation into alleged bribery at its former Turkish business. Additionally, the company made a charitable donation of GBP20 million and paid GBP10 million towards costs. Alexander and Feldman have claimed that AG may have disclosed privileged information without prior consent, the FT reported. The duo are after a court declaration which states they were clients of AG. This would mean advice AG gave to Entain should be made available to them.
----------
COMPANIES - FTSE 250
----------
Assura rejected a takeover approach from private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Robert, which is now considering if there is any "merit" in engaging with the care property investor's board. KKR said the latest proposal values Assura's fully diluted share capital at GBP1.56 billion, 48 pence per share, a 28% premium to its Friday closing price. KKR said: "This follows significant work over the last 6 months which resulted in three previous written proposals made to the board of Assura, each of which was rejected unanimously by the board." It added: "KKR believes that the terms of the latest proposal offer a highly attractive opportunity for Assura shareholders to realise their investment in cash at a significant premium to prevailing market prices. KKR is considering whether there is any merit in continuing to try and engage with the board. There can be no certainty that any firm offer for the company will be made. A further announcement will be made as and when appropriate." Assura on Friday noted it received an unsolicited approach from KKR and USS Investment Management, the latter acting as agent for and on behalf of Universities Superannuation Scheme. The Universities Superannuation Scheme is a pension scheme in the UK for universities and higher education institutions. USS IM on Monday announced it does not plan to make an offer for Assura, be as part of a consortium or alone. KKR noted USS IM's announcement. KKR has until the close of play on March 14 to announce if it plans to make a formal offer for Assura.
----------
Mony Group lifted its dividend and report an annual profit climb, helped by record revenue. The price comparison website operator also announced a share buyback programme of GBP30 million. Pretax profit in 2024 increased 18% to GBP108.7 million from GBP92.1 million, while revenue rose 1.6% to GBP439.2 million from GBP432.1 million. It was record revenue, Mony said. CEO Peter Duffy said: "We are proud to have helped customers save a record GBP2.9 billion - the more customers save, the more the group grows. We've done this by delivering strong performance both operationally and financially in 2024 as we continue to execute on our strategy. This includes encouraging customers to join our member-based propositions like the SuperSaveClub which, in turn, reduces our reliance on increasingly expensive pay-per-click marketing. This sustained momentum has enabled us to grow the dividend by 3% this year, alongside the announcement of a share buyback programme of up to GBP30 million, which will deliver enhanced returns to shareholders. This reflects our confidence in the continued execution of our strategy, and importantly, means we retain significant capacity to support future growth." Mony lifted its final dividend by 3.4% to 9.2 pence per share from 8.9p. Its total dividend was 12.5p per share, up 3.3% from 12.1p. Mony added: "Our recent trading performance, coupled with momentum in our strategic execution gives the board confidence that we will deliver adjusted Ebitda for 2025 broadly within our current published consensus. Despite headwinds in the car insurance switching market, strength in our breadth provides us with resilience and we continue to see other opportunities for growth across the business. We anticipate operating cost inflation (excluding depreciation and amortisation) to be largely mitigated through our ongoing focus on cost efficiency. We remain well positioned to continue to deliver sustainable, profitable growth." It puts market expectations for 2025 adjusted Ebitda between GBP143.1 million and GBP151.7 million. In 2024, its adjusted Ebitda rose 6.7% to GBP141.8 million from GBP132.9 million.
----------
OTHER COMPANIES
----------
FRP Advisory Group said trading across all its divisions are "currently ahead of the board's expectations". The business advisory firm expects to deliver results for the financial year to April 30 ahead of market expectations, which it puts at GBP147.6 million for revenue and GBP39.9 million for adjusted Ebitda. "FRP is pleased with its performance in the year to date, with trading across each of the five service pillars currently ahead of the board's expectations, demonstrating FRP's ability to grow profitably through a range of services that help clients at different stages of their corporate cycle," FRP said. It declared a 0.95p per share third-quarter dividend, up from 0.9p a year prior.
----------
The Topps Tiles GBP9 million buy of 30 CTD Tiles stores "raises competition concerns in four areas of the UK", a watchdog said. The UK Competition & Markets Authority said the tile seller's buy "could lead to worse deals and service for home renovators and tradespeople in 4 local areas". The CMA added: "Following completion of the deal the CMA received several complaints, which included concerns relating to how the deal impacted businesses and retail customers in specific areas of the country. Following a phase 1 investigation, the CMA found that a small number of sites in Dorking, Edinburgh, Inverness and Aberdeen created competition concerns in the supply of tiles to retail customers and business customers. The investigation found both companies compete closely for retail and business customers. After reviewing the deal, including internal documents and evidence from customers and competitors, the CMA concluded that in most areas there are sufficient remaining competitors but that in a small number of areas, the deal could lead to worse deals and service for customers." Topps Tiles has until next week Monday to "submit proposals which resolve the CMA's concerns". Topps Tiles added: "The company is pleased to note that following the announcement of its phase I decision today, the CMA found that the transaction has generated no competition concerns in the majority of areas reviewed. Specifically, the CMA agreed with the company that its acquisition of the CTD commercial tile operations (CTD Architectural and CTD Housebuilder) did not raise any competition concerns and that in 26 out of 30 locations where retail stores were acquired no local competition concerns were identified. In the four retail localities where the CMA has identified possible concerns (Dorking, Aberdeen, Inverness and Edinburgh) the company now has the opportunity to put forward remedies to address these concerns in lieu of a more in-depth investigation. The company will continue to work with the CMA in a constructive and professional manner, as it has done throughout this process."
----------
By Eric Cunha, Alliance News news editor
Comments and questions to [email protected]
Copyright 2025 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.