16th Jan 2014 06:52
LONDON (Alliance News) - British energy giant BP PLC Wednesday published its BP Energy Outlook 2035, expecting 41% increase in global energy consumption from 2012 to 2035 driven by emerging economies - led by China and India. The outlook, which focuses on supply sufficiency, security and sustainability, noted that global energy demand continues to grow but that growth is slowing.
The projection of 41% increase in global energy consumption compares to 55% over the last 23 years and 30% over the last ten.
BP's outlook shows global energy demand continuing to increase at an average of 1.5% a year to 2035. It is expected that growth would moderate over this period, climbing at an average of 2% a year to 2020 and then by only 1.2% a year to 2035.
According to the firm, ninety five percent of that growth in demand would come from the emerging economies. Energy use in the advanced economies of North America, Europe and Asia as a group would grow very slowly, and would begin to decline in the later years of the forecast period.
BP expects energy use in the non-OECD economies by 2035 to be 69% higher than in 2012, while use in the OECD would have grown only 5%.
Of the total demand growth, oil, natural gas and coal each would make up around 26-27% and the remaining share would come from non-fossil fuels of nuclear, hydroelectricity and renewables.
BP also noted that gas is growing fastest among fossil fuels, increasingly being used as a cleaner alternative to coal for power generation as well as in other sectors. Meanwhile, oil would see the slowest growth in the major fuels with demand growing at an average of just 0.8% a year.
The outlook also noted that growth in the supply of oil and other liquids, including biofuels, to 2035 is expected to come mainly from the Americas and Middle East.
Nuclear energy output is expected to rise to 2035 at around 1.9% a year, with China, India and Russia together accounting for 96% of the global growth in nuclear power. Nuclear output in the US and EU are projected to decline due to expected plant closures.
Copyright RTT News/dpa-AFX
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