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Positive Update to Danica Jutland CPR

16th Jul 2013 07:00

RNS Number : 3744J
New World Oil & Gas
16 July 2013
 



New World Oil and Gas Plc / Index: AIM / Epic: NEW / Sector: Oil & Gas

16 July 2013

New World Oil and Gas Plc ('New World' or 'the Company')

Positive Update to Danica Jutland CPR

 

New World Oil and Gas Plc, an oil and gas operating company focussed on Belize and Denmark, has received an update ('CPR Update') to the Competent Person's Report ('Admission CPR') as published in the AIM Admission Document and dated 3 July 2012 from RPS Energy ('RPS') for Licences 1/09 and 2/09 of the Danica Jutland Project located in the highly prospective Jutland on-shore area in South Western Denmark ('the Project') in which New World holds a 25% working interest.

 

Key Findings of the CPR:

·; Update follows the completion of a 75 sq km 3-D seismic acquisition programme to further delineate and map the Jensen Prospect area on Licence 1/09 ('the Licence')

·; New data identifies a number of new smaller prospects rather than one larger reef structure at Jensen that had been previously identified using 2-D seismic

·; Multiple horizons identified at each prospect - Z1 and pre-Zechstein intervals (gas) and Z2 (oil)

·; 3-D seismic over the Zechstein leads has significantly clarified likely trap configurations

·; RPS has assigned a 90% chance to the presence and effectiveness of trap at these structures

o Traps are well imaged and likely to have been present during migration

·; Good regional seal provided by presence of Bunter shale

·; Drilling required to reduce reservoir risk but Z2 is presented as being analogous to the producing Z2 carbonates of Germany and Poland in the South Permian Basin - supported by the results of seismic

o Z1 deemed higher risk as it is less well-known as a reservoir

o Pre-Zechstein interval could be Rotliegendes or Carboniferous sandstones

·; Upgrade in Probability of Geologic Success to 1 in 9 for Z2, 1 in 10 for Pre-Zechstein and 1 in 13 for Z1 - RPS previously assigned a geological risk of between 1 in 12 and 1 in 16 for the Zechstein

·; RPS has run an indicative set of volumetrics for the largest four prospects - detailed in Table 1 below

·; New World has run screening economics on prospects A, B, and C as set out in Table 2 - Prospects A and B are likely to be commercially attractive for both the Zechstein and Pre-Zechstein targets either individually or combined; and Prospect C in the Pre-Zechstein

·; 3-D data acquired is considered by RPS to be of very good quality and has de-risked the previously identified leads and prospects on the Licence, providing sufficient encouragement to proceed with drilling

·; RPS states the possibility remains of finding larger targets in the Zechstein

·; New World has the option to earn an additional 55% working interest in the Project upon completion of drilling two wells, as set out in the Farm-Out Agreement (announcement 11 October 2011)

·; Licence 2/09 CPR results remain unchanged from the last CPR update announced on 24 September 2012, and are indicated in the tables 3 and 4 below

 

Table 1: Licence 1/09 - Indicative volumetric outcomes for prospects A,B,C,D (100% working interest basis)

 

Prospect

In place volumes

Prospective Resources

GPoS

P90

P50

P10

Low Estimate

Best Estimate

High Estimate

A - Z2

3.17MMstb

5.13MMstb

7.71MMstb

0.58MMstb

1 MMstb

1.62 MMstb

1 in 9

A - Z1

0.79 Bcf

3.65 Bcf

8.8 Bcf

0.58 Bcf

2.71 Bcf

6.61 Bcf

1 in 13

A - Pre-Z

12.3 Bcf

16.2 Bcf

20.8 Bcf

8.88 Bcf

12.1 Bcf

16 Bcf

1 in 10

B - Z2

0.43MMstb

1.87MMstb

4.39MMstb

0.08MMstb

0.36 MMstb

0.89 MMstb

1 in 9

B - Z1

0.32 Bcf

1.08 Bcf

2.55 Bcf

0.24 Bcf

0.8 Bcf

1.92 Bcf

1 in 13

B - Pre-Z

8.67 Bcf

12 Bcf

16.3 Bcf

6.3 Bcf

8.96 Bcf

12.6 Bcf

1 in 10

C - Z2

0.12MMstb

0.48MMstb

1.18MMstb

0.02MMstb

0.09 MMstb

0.24 MMstb

1 in 9

C - Z1

0.67 Bcf

1.96 Bcf

4.28 Bcf

0.5 Bcf

1.46 Bcf

3.23 Bcf

1 in 13

C - Pre-Z

8.47 Bcf

11.7 Bcf

16 Bcf

6.15 Bcf

8.74 Bcf

12.3 Bcf

1 in 10

D - Z2

0.14MMstb

0.46MMstb

1.12MMstb

0.03MMstb

0.09 MMstb

0.23 MMstb

1 in 9

D - Z1

0.06 Bcf

0.15 Bcf

0.32 Bcf

0.05 Bcf

0.11 Bcf

0.24 Bcf

1 in 13

D - Pre-Z

0.51 Bcf

1.21 Bcf

2.38 Bcf

0.38 Bcf

0.9 Bcf

1.8 Bcf

1 in 10

 

Table 2: Licence 1/09 - Indicative success case economic outcomes for prospects A, B, C, D on an 80% working interest basis

Prospect

Zone

Best Case Value US$million

 

Undisc

PV 10%

 

A

Z1

5.87

3.69

Z2

30.11

20.11

Pre-Z

28.74

18.98

 

B

Z1

1.47

0.90

Z2

10.02

6.93

Pre-Z

18.18

11.52

 

C

Z1

0.00

0.00

Z2

0.00

0.00

Pre-Z

17.73

11.24

 

D

Z1

0.00

0.00

Z2

0.00

0.00

Pre-Z

0.00

0.00

 

 

 

 

 

Table 3: Licence 2/09 Jelling and Harboe prospect volumetric results - September 2012 (100% WI basis)

 

 

P90

 

P50

P10

Mean

Jelling Prospect

Gas Initially in Place (GIIP)

(Bcf)

172

279

432

292

Prospective Resources

(Bcf)

126

208

328

219

Harboe Prospect

Gas Initially in Place (GIIP)

(Bcf)

276

590

1150

661

Prospective Resources

(Bcf)

203

439

863

496

 

Table 4: Licence 2/09 - Indicative Success Case Economics Summary for Jelling and Harboe prospects. The 80% WI assumes New World elects to exercise its options to increase its WI in the licence in return for further seismic acquisition and the drilling of a well

 

 

Gross

Bcf

NWOG (80% WI) Bcf

NWOG (80%WI) PV10 $MM

Jelling Prospect

P90

126.0

100.8

95.8

MEAN

219.0

175.2

186.4

P50

208.0

166.4

176.0

P10

328.0

262.4

290.4

Harboe Prospect

P90

202.8

162.2

159.4

MEAN

498.3

398.6

434.2

P50

439.0

351.2

377.6

P10

862.7

690.1

760.5

 

 

 

New World CEO William Kelleher said, "Our understanding of the previously identified Jensen Prospect area on Licence 1/09 has been greatly enhanced following the acquisition and interpretation of 3-D seismic. As the Competent Person states, instead of being just one large prospect, Jensen appears to be made up of multiple smaller structures, each with at least three separate horizons in the Zechstein and Pre-Zechstein. In aggregate, we now have indicative volumetrics and success case economic outcomes for Licences 1/09 and 2/09 of the Danica Jutland Project totalling 591 BCFG (unrisked sum of individual P50, discovery case) and a NPV10 of US$ 655.7 million net to New World.

 

"The combination of having a number of commercially attractive prospects with a significant reduction in geological risk, particularly regarding trap which is now risked by RPS as having a 90% chance of success where covered by 3-D data, confirms the prospectivity of our Danish Licences. We agree with RPS that, having sufficiently de-risked these prospects, drilling is now required to progress further. With this in mind, we have now stepped up our efforts to conclude bringing in a partner in Denmark, as we look to close the substantial disconnect that has opened up between our current market capitalization and the potential upside in our portfolio of which these multiple prospects represent."

 

The conclusions section of the Update to the CPR is reproduced in its entirety below:

 

New World Jutland ApS (NWJ) is a wholly owned subsidiary of New World Oil & Gas Plc. NWJ became Operator in October 2011 after Government and partner approval and has earned a 25% working interest ("WI") in two licences, 1/09 and 2/09, onshore Denmark and has the right to earn up to 80% WI if it elects to drill a well in each licence.

 

The combined licence area covers a large portion of onshore Denmark and is located in an under-explored area and overlies an interesting mirror-image play to the well-established northern platform edge of the Southern Permian Basin.

 

The next phase of operation, is to select a prospect to drill (or not). NWJ and its partner were recently granted a six month extension to "Year 4" of the six year exploration period in order to properly consider and elect to drill one or more wells. The decision to "drill or drop" must be made by the 17th November 2013.

 

The recent acquisition, processing and interpretation of approximately 75 sq km of 3D seismic met the Company's second phase of work obligations and has de-risked, from an imaging perspective at least, the previously identified leads and prospects. The new data has provided sufficient encouragement to embark on the next phase of activity. This will require drilling one well in license 1/09.

 

The remaining key risks are the presence of reservoir quality rocks in the Zechstein and underlying pre-Zechstein which could be either Rotliegendes or Carboniferous in age. Both plays also have an element of source and migration risk. These risks can be mitigated by drilling a successful well. A successful well, even if only proving the presence of hydrocarbons, would have a significant positive impact on further exploration as this would greatly reduce perceived risk. There remains the possibility of finding larger targets along the approximately 120 km of Zechstein platform and platform margin that have been mapped across the license area.

 

New World has run screening economics based on the range of outcomes and concludes that, in the event of discovery, Prospects A and B are likely to be commercially attractive for both the Zechstein and Pre-Zechstein targets, either individually or combined. For Prospect C, a Pre-Zechstein gas discovery would appear to be commercially profitable RPS has reviewed the assumptions and other input parameters for the screening economics and finds them to be reasonable at this stage. It is noted that a refinery is located 60 km from the area of the 3D survey and a gas distribution network is already in place in 1/09 and 2/09.

 

In compiling the CPR Update, RPS Energy has used the definitions and guidelines as set out in the Petroleum Resources Management System ('PRMS') by the SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE in 2007 as the internationally recognised Standard required by the AIM Guidance Note.

 

The information contained in this announcement has been reviewed and approved by Andrew Kirchin on behalf of RPS. Mr. Kirchin has over 25 years of relevant experience in the oil industry and is currently EVP, Consulting (US), with RPS in Houston.

 

* * ENDS * *

 

AAPG

American Association of Petroleum Geologists

AVO

Amplitude variation with offset

B

Billion

Bbls

Barrels

Bcf

Billion cubic feet

BOE

Barrels Oil Equivalent

Bo

Barrel of oil

Closure

The vertical distance from the apex of a structure to the lowest structural contour that contains the structure. Measurements of both the areal closure and the distance from the apex to the lowest closing contour are typically incorporated in calculations of the estimated hydrocarbon content of a trap.

DHI

Direct hydrocarbon indicator

GIIP

Gas Initially in Place

GPoS

Geological Probability of Success

Km

Kilometre

M

metres

M

Thousand

MM

Million

MMbo

Million barrels of oil

Mstb

Thousand stock tank barrels

MMscf/d

Millions of standard cubit feet per day

MMstb

Million stock tank barrels

NPV10

Net Present Value using an annual discount on cashflow of 10% per annum

P10

At least a 10% probability that the quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. This is a measure of uncertainty not geological or commercial risk

P50

At least a 50% probability that the quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. This is a measure of uncertainty not geological or commercial risk

P90

At least a 90% probability that the quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. This is a measure of uncertainty not geological or commercial risk

Play

The combination of reservoir, seal and source that is required to promote the likelihood of a working petroleum system within any given region or fairway.

Prospect

A potential trap which geologists believe may contain hydrocarbons

prospective volumes

Quantities of oil and gas estimated on a given date to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations. In the event of discovery they are likely to be technically viable and economic to recover

Reefal build-ups

Lithified carbonate build-ups associated with repeated episodes of coral reef formation on a platform edge often in response to minor sea-level change cycles

Reservoirs

A subsurface body of rock having sufficient porosity and permeability to store and transmit fluids

Rotliegendes

The Rotliegend is a sequence of rock strata of early Permian age found in the subsurface of large areas in western and central Europe and mainly consists of sandstone layers. It is usually covered by the Zechstein.

sq km

Square kilometres

Stb

Stock tank barrels

Scf

Standard cubic feet

SPB

Southern Permian Basin

SPE

Society of Petroleum Engineers

SPEE

Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers

Triassic

Of or belonging to the geologic time, system of rocks, or sedimentary deposits of the first period of the Mesozoic Era - between the Permian and Jurassic periods, about 245 million to 208 million years ago.

WPC

World Petroleum Council

Zechstein

Unit of sedimentary rock layers of Middle to Late Permian (Guadalupian to Lopingian) age located in the European Permian Basin.

 

 

For further information please visit www.nwoilgas.com or contact:

 

 

Enquiries:

William Kelleher

New World Oil and Gas Plc

Tel: +17134472171

Georges Sztyk

New World Oil and Gas Plc

Tel: +1514 961 2247

Peter Sztyk

 

Felicity Geidt

New World Oil and Gas Plc

 

Beaumont Cornish Limited

Tel: +19172157122

 

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7628 3396

Roland Cornish

Beaumont Cornish Limited

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7628 3396

 

Jerry Keen

Shore Capital

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7408 4090

Pascal Keane

Shore Capital

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7408 4090

 

Hugo de Salis

St Brides Media & Finance Ltd

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7236 1177

Lottie Brocklehurst

St Brides Media & Finance Ltd

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7236 1177

Frank Buhagiar

St Brides Media & Finance Ltd

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7236 1177

 

 

Notes

 

New World Oil and Gas Plc is an oil and gas operating company with three highly prospective projects in Belize and Denmark. New World is operator of all three projects where a systematic programme of seismic acquisition has resulted in multiple prospects being identified and derisked, a number of which have been classified by the Competent Person as being drill ready. New World also operates two projects in onshore Denmark located in producing basins covering a combined area of over 2.6 million acres, making it the largest holder of acreage in Denmark.

 

Management is constantly evaluating additional projects that would complement the Company's growing portfolio, particularly late stage exploration or early production projects located in basins with large proven reserves that, in the opinion of the Directors, are undervalued, underdeveloped or under-performing.

 

This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
 
END
 
 
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